Tropical Storm Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Rita has developed from TD 18 in the Atlantic Ocean. TS Rita is currently located north of Hispaniola, the eastern tip of Cuba, and ESE of Nassau, Bahamas. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for portions of Florida. Check for local weather statements.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only!
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live"
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - mms://216.242.118.141/broadband

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[RDTF]

http://www.cowboylyrics.com/lyrics/campbell-glen/galveston-662.html

Artist/Band: Campbell Glen
Lyrics for Song: Galveston
Lyrics for Album: Very Best of Glen Campbell
Galveston, oh Galveston, I still hear your sea winds blowin'
I still see her dark eyes glowin'
She was 21 when I left Galveston

Galveston, oh Galveston, I still hear your sea waves crashing
While I watch the cannons flashing
I clean my gun and dream of Galveston

I still see her standing by the water
Standing there lookin' out to sea
And is she waiting there for me?
On the beach where we used to run

Galveston, oh Galveston, I am so afraid of dying
Before I dry the tears she's crying
Before I watch your sea birds flying in the sun
At Galveston, at Galveston

[libtoken]

Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings up for Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach.

[Ditter]

Landfall at Freeport Tx (next town down the coast from Galveston) would take Rita right over our ranch. It is about 25 miles inland from the coast. Mr. Ditter is shipping bulls out to Oklahoma as we speak.

[brytlea]

Drat, no kayaking for me!!
susie

[kingu]

FWIW, the GFDL is also forecasting Rita to turn into a CAT 5 monster in the Keys by tommorrow

The 6z had it as a strong CAT3 hitting the Keys; is there a more current run that predicts stronger?

[NautiNurse]

What's the situation after the storm passes?

Depends. If you are flying into RSW (Ft. Myers), check with your airline. Here is the FAA website for RSW. Current indication is the Exuma airport is closed. They provide a link to each airline website too.

[jpsb]

Mr Ditter is a very smart man.

[mewzilla]

FWIW, the GFDL is also forecasting Rita to turn into a CAT 5 monster in the Keys by tommorrow (ala the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane)....so you'll know soon if the model is onto something or out of its mind (likely the latter).

=8-0

Completely out of its mind hopefully.

[brytlea]

Sounds very bad. I have been to Galveston several times. Would be nice if this storm just died in the Gulf....
susie

[Strategerist]

If this thing looks stronger than a 1 or 2 all bets are off, however.

You can't sit around microcalculating what you do based on the category of the storm; through rapid intensification storms can go up 2 to even 3 categories basically instantly (6-18 hours), and there's no place on the planet where that's more likely than around South Florida and the Keys.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Petrochemical plants could be damaged (wind and floodwaters) but most will get back on line relatively quickly. Exxon and the Ship Channel industries are all near or above 20' elevation, so even with a 30' storm surge they wouldn't get the full 'punch' that would do huge structural damage, just short-term flooding. Some areas of the Bayport complex get as low as 13', but Hwy 146 and the marshland will blunt some of the force. The Texas City refinery is very low and would likely see the heaviest damage. The Chocolate Bayou plants are only at 10-16', but have some (but not a lot of) marshland protection. Freeport plants could be a problem, they look to be protected by levees with locks to allow a quick drainoff, but the walls appear to be below 14-17'.

Residences, Galveston, and the Bolivar Peninsula is a complete other story.

[brytlea]

I don't know if he's up for reelection in Feb, but I hope so, and I hope he gets trounced!
susie

[varina davis]

THIS is proper preparedness -- AP excerpt:

The state was sending a National Guard cargo plane to evacuate 22 patients from Key West's hospital to Sebring, near Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Several critically ill patients already had been evacuated to hospitals in Miami.

Thank goodness for Jeb Bush.

[TX Bluebonnet]

I tried clicking on your links, but it says I'm not logged in. No joke! LOL

[brytlea]

Another year like the past two and paradise to me is gonna be the Midwest!!!

I'm thinking NM sounds better and better!

susie

[brytlea]

Palm Beach? I didn't hear them say Palm Beach on the last one. Guess I'd better pay closer attention. Thanks for the info.
susie

[RoseyT]

"I don't have a gut feeling for this storm yet, except that I think it's a Texas storm."

My tummy hurts just thinking about it.

[NautiNurse]

it's where Gunga Dan got his first big break

[Diddle E. Squat]

Mr. Ditter is shipping bulls out to Oklahoma as we speak.

What you say? Bulls ship! Cotton-eye Joe!

Seriously, good luck, hopefully it won't move through Freeport and your ranch.

[brytlea]

Thank goodness for Jeb Bush.

Amen!

susie