Tropical Storm Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Rita has developed from TD 18 in the Atlantic Ocean. TS Rita is currently located north of Hispaniola, the eastern tip of Cuba, and ESE of Nassau, Bahamas. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for portions of Florida. Check for local weather statements.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only!
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live"
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - mms://216.242.118.141/broadband

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[who knows what evil?]

I told him if Jim Cantore was with him then we were all outta there, which he thought was very funny.

LOL! My wife and I saw Jim Cantore in Burlington, Vermont, back in 1998. He was there to cover what was expected to be a "significant ice storm". That turned out to be the "Great Ice Storm of '98", which left many people around New England and Quebec without power for a month or so. (We lived about 30 miles east of Burlington at a somewhat higher elevation, and never saw any ice at all.) Bottom line: no matter where you live, or regardless of the season; a Cantore sighting means "head for the hills"!

[Brytani]

What part of the Keys are you in?

[CedarDave]

Which radar are you looking at?

[jpsb]

Looks like Texas and La costal freepers need to pay close attention to this strom. I myself am taking the day off to do some shopping. Already have good gas supply and generator. Have spare car battery, will get batteries for short wave radio. Oil for huricane lamp, clean up yard. Looks to me like 50/50 here in Galveston county.

[ElisabethInCincy]

The radar they are running on tv.. i.e Cnn and Fox

[Chasaway]

"...and it was published in 1996."

Whew! I thought I remembered other storms since then (including Claudette!) but I was beginning to get kind of a "Twilight Zone" feeling when I first looked at the list...

[shield]

Here's an interesting discussion on Sept Texas Hurricanes:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=52627

By Wednesday we'll have a much better idea where the hit will be...since you're right on the coast...have you thought about an evac?

[rodguy911]

Wow when did yo hear that, I'm here in Islamorada trying to get my daughter out of Key West to come home.

[jsh3180]

I am going to hang in here for several reasons..I am a general contractor here, built my own house in 1996, engineered to withstand 175 mph winds. One room in the house is solid poured concrete as a last resort bunker. House is up on stilts 15' above sea level. I have too much busines going on here to get out. Have spent the morning so far securing job sites and am now beginning on my own house. So it goes.....house built to withstand the worst and elevated above any storm surge possibility, so here I will be.

[jsh3180]

I prefaced my post by saying I did not wish to be alarmist. I certainly hope my neighbor's relative is wrong. he has been spot on in the past.

[jsh3180]

I am in Sugarloaf Key. 17 miles north of Key West.

[jsh3180]

heard from neighbor 1 1/2hours ago.

[NautiNurse]

Full update with discussion due momentarily.

[LBelle]

To start a post with "not to be alarmist..." and then give alarming info is still, well...alarmist. I just know that we always see things get out of control in these circumstances with people giving information which is often incorrect. I hope your neighbor isn't like that, yet I also hope that he is dreadfully mistaken in his interpretation of the info he received. It is a sure bet that this storm is going to get really ugly once it passes the keys.

At any rate, hang in there. We will be hoping for the best for you and yours. I think I am going to skedaddle up to Miami for the duration, where I hope this thing doesn't pull and Andrew and engulf all of the keys evacuees in the eye of the storm.

[NautiNurse]

[dirtboy]

11 am 5-day forecast now takes it into the Texas coast just below Galveston Bay - worst-case hit for Houston.

But I think this one's going to hit Lake Charles or Beaumont and hose the section of the Louisiana Coast that wasn't hosed by Katrina.

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Rita Advisory Number 7
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 19, 2005

 
...Rita strengthening over the Bahamas...
...New watches and warnings issued for portions of South Florida...

At 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Warning is issued for the extreme
southern Florida Peninsula from Golden Beach southward to Florida
City and westward to East Cape Sable.

 
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys
from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas...including Florida Bay.

 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Exumas and for Andros
Island in the northwest Bahamas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect for the turks and caicos and for all of the remainder of the
Bahamas.

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa
Clara and Matanzas.  A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the
provinces of Ciudad de Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio.  A
tropical storm watch remains in effect for the provinces of Ciego
de Avila...Sancti Spiritus...and Cienfuegos.

 
At 11 am EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are
now in effect from Deerfield Beach Florida southward to north of
Golden Beach.

 
At 11 am EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning is issued along the Florida
East Coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to Jupiter
Inlet.

 
At 11 am EDT...a Hurricane Watch is issued for the extreme
southwestern Florida Peninsula from west of East Cape Sable
northward to Chokoloskee.

 
At 11 am EDT...a tropical storm watch is issued for the southwest
Florida coast from north of Chokoloskee to Englewood.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Rita was located
near latitude 23.0 north... longitude 75.2 west or about 195
miles... 315 km... southeast of Nassau and about 430 miles
east-southeast of Key West Florida.

 
Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph... 19 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  65 mph...100 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and Rita could become a category one hurricane tonight.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles
...230 km from the center.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  994 mb...29.35 inches.

Rita is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6
inches over the southeastern and central Bahamas...with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Storm totals of 6 to 10
inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches will be
possible in the Florida Keys and northwestern Cuba...with 3 to 5
inches possible across the southern Florida Peninsula.

 
Storm surge flooding of 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...are possible in the
Florida Keys in areas of onshore flow.  Coastal storm surge
flooding of 3 to 5 feet are possible along the extreme southeastern
Florida coast...and in the northwestern Bahamas.

 
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...23.0 N... 75.2 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 994 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.

 
Forecaster Knabb

[LBelle]

crap....is that a jog to the north from 5 a.m?

[mhking]

WFOR: Miami-Dade now under Hurricane WARNING as of 11A advisory. Standing by for full text.

[CajunConservative]

That is what it looks like to me too.