Tropical Storm Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Rita has developed from TD 18 in the Atlantic Ocean. TS Rita is currently located north of Hispaniola, the eastern tip of Cuba, and ESE of Nassau, Bahamas. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for portions of Florida. Check for local weather statements.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only!
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live"
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - mms://216.242.118.141/broadband

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[TXBSAFH]

I was in the eye of Alicia in 1983. It was wild but then the next day I had to help my dad and my brother get the roof out of the swimming pool.

[sheikdetailfeather]

I sure am glad Jeb is in charge down here as many hurricanes as we had last year and could deal with this year. Jeb was smart telling everyone there will be enough gas. Right after Katrina hit NO a bogus email went out saying gas stations would close for 3 days. This caused a sudden shortage in Fla..

[james_f_hall]

Gilbert did more damage to SA than Corpus.

[james_f_hall]

Rick Perry better be ready.

[Fawn]

How many storms are in the Atlantic? I see one on the keys....one in the middle and then another one just off of Africa?

[james_f_hall]

Wasn't there a Hurricane Brad or Bret recently as well? It only hit ranch land and was very companct if I recall. Like 1999 or 2000.

[TaxRelief]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Jeff Masters is the best up-to-date and accurate source of hurricane information out there. His pre-Katrina posts were heartwrenching:

Jeff Masters, two days before Katrina hit:

Katrina has continued to expand in size, and now rivals Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Allen as the largest hurricanes in size. When hurricanes reach such enormous sizes, they tend to create their own upper-air environment, making them highly resistant to external wind shear. The global computer models are not really hinting at any wind shear that might affect Katrina before landfall, and the only thing that might weaken her is an eyewall replacement cycle. Even if one of these happens in the next 12 hours, the weakest Katrina is likely to get before landfall is a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Katrina is so huge and powerful that she will still do incredible damage even at this level. The track forecast has not changed significantly, and the area from New Orleans to the Mississippi-Louisiana border is going to get a catastrophic blow. I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%.

This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since many people will be unable or unwilling to get out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knock down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.

I have focused on New Orleans in much of my discussions about this storm, but Katrina will do tens of billions in damage all along the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Mobile Bay could well see a 10-foot storm surge. And inland areas will take heavy damage as well; Katrina will still be a hurricane 180 miles inland, and cause widespread flooding throughout the Tennessee Valley.

My thoughts and prayers go out to all of you in Katrina's way, and I urge all readers of this blog to do the same.

Jeff Masters (The day before Katrina hit.)

Earlier on Saturday he posted this comment:

I'd hate to be an Emergency Management official in New Orleans right now. Katrina is pretty much following the NHC forecast, and appears likely to pass VERY close to New Orleans. I'm surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet. While the odds of a catastropic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans are probably 10%, that is way too high in my opinion to justify leaving the people in the city. If I lived in the city, I would evactuate NOW! There is a very good reason that the Coroner's office in New Orleans keeps 10,000 body bags on hand. The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away. Get out now and beat the rush. You're not going to have to go to work or school on Monday anyway. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so--particularly the 60,000 poor people with no cars

[No Blue States]

We have 2 in the atlantic and 3 in the pacific as of right now:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

[Fawn]

Thanks....It looks like a 3rd one is coming off Africa......

[LBelle]

From a fellow Keys dweller....can we hold off posting alarmist info that comes from the cousin of the brother of the brother in law of the guy across the street, please? It's stressful enough right now without 3rd, 4th or 5th hand info. There are plenty of people down here that don the tinfoil hats and give doomsday scenarios about how "the man" is hiding the REAL truth about the storm from us. Unless it comes from the hurricane center let's keep from speculating. Max Mayfield certainly did his job warning LA and MS about Katrina. We all need to keep an eye on this and prepare to weather a storm or get the heck out but the anonymous sources can stay out of it as far as I am concerned.

[CedarDave]

From the KPLC-TV Blog updated 20 mintues ago:

Mike Griffin Says:
September 19th, 2005 at 9:00 am

I am getting new data and model output this morning. I am increasing getting worried as well. New data now points all towards SE TX and SW LA with maybe a landfall near Sabine Pass. That would be the worse case scenario for our coastal parishes and inland areas like Lake Charles. This is still way out and models will shift back and forth. But I think the next advisory from the National Hurricane Center will be a lot closer towards us here. Too early to say when or if they will order evacuations right now. We will get a better and more certain idea of the track when the models cluster up together and about 3 days out which will be Wednesday at the latest. I will go into extreme detail on every newscast. I will have the new blog update roughly after 10 am. I will be in a meeting about the storm this morning… Thanks for writing and your concerns…

http://www.kplctv.com/Global/link.asp?L=159592&nav=menu66_3

[Fawn]

IS there any chance it could move North? Hit Palm Beach county? Or is that probability gone?

[Fawn]

Ya know...if we got rid of Africa we wouldn't have these storms. :P

[LBelle]

I have been advocating elimanating Africa for two hurricane seasons now!

[NautiNurse]

can you please also have an automatic link at the start of the thread to the local NWS offices?

If you look at the start of the thread, there is, indeed, a link to Florida Watches and Warnings. Click on it just for fun, then please stop with the mile long ALL CAPS posts.

[Fawn]

Great minds think alike :)

[NautiNurse]

I'm going to hang in here

Care to share why?

[ElisabethInCincy]

Im stupid when it comes to hurricanes.. BUT!!!! I Noticed something on radr a little while ago ... Am i right in seeing this thing literally exploding in the past few frames ?....

[Dane]

Wasn't there a Hurricane Brad or Bret recently as well? It only hit ranch land and was very companct if I recall. Like 1999 or 2000.

Yes it was Bret in August 1999, I got the original link from the Houston FEMA agency, but it seems they got it from the Houston Chronical and AP and it was published in 1996.

Link

[shield]

Have you seen this: http://met.psu.edu/~arnottj/CHARM/tcgengifs/gfdl/2005091906-rita18l/slp19.png