Posted on 08/31/2005 1:45:09 AM PDT by eakole
Tuesday, August 30, 2005 A Constitution for Iraq: Does It Matter? Tel Aviv Notes No. 145 August 30, 2005 A Constitution for Iraq: Does It Matter? Ofra Bengio Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
The birth-pangs of Iraq's new constitution are symptomatic of the deep crisis afflicting the country, and even if an agreed document is eventually produced, it may not only fail to resolve the country's underlying problems but could actually make them worse. After all, in its eighty-five years of existence, Iraq has had no fewer than six constitutions. The first was imposed in 1925 by the British authorities and it remained in effect for thirty-three years. But despite (or perhaps because of) the fact that it bore all the hallmarks of western democracy, that constitution never struck roots in Iraqi society or dictated political processes there, and it was abolished along with the Iraqi monarchy in 1958. The four subsequent constitutions of 1963, 1964, 1968 and 1970 were all defined as temporary instruments and lasted only as long as the regimes that promulgated them.
In fact, no Iraqi constitution ever became the authoritative framework to regulate political processes or determine the country's identity and orientation. Instead, they all served only one purpose: to legitimize the regime in power. And there is no certainty that the sixth constitution, presented to the Iraqi parliament on August 27, will succeed where all of its predecessors have failed. True, this one was not imposed by a foreign power or local dictator but instead enjoys the apparent advantage of having been negotiated by representatives of the two largest communities in the country - the Shi'ites and the Kurds, who together make up about 80% of the population. And the result is the product of lengthy consultations, compromises and mutual concessions. However, the drafting process, like the elections of January 2005, has left the Sunnis feeling marginalized and further strengthened their opposition to the emerging order. And now that the draft document has been submitted to Parliament, the Sunnis are threatening to torpedo it, either by invoking the right of veto given in the interim constitution to any group of at least three provinces or by sheer violence.
The threat of a procedural veto is only the most visible of the problems likely to emerge on the road to a ratification vote in October. The main stumbling blocks concern the most substantive issues: the identity, character and structure of state and regime, the distribution of resources, and Iraq's political orientation. While Shi'ites and Kurds remain divided on these issues, they appear to have reached agreement - at least on paper - if only in order to alter the fundamental balance of power in the state, prevent a Sunni restoration, and correct what they perceive as the injustices done to them in the past. But the Sunnis now see themselves as the main victims of the substantive changes. For example, Article I of the draft constitution declares that "The Republic of Iraq is a sovereign and independent state whose government is republican, parliamentary, democratic and federal." That outrages Sunnis who view any reference to federalism as a prescription for the disintegration of a unitary state. Federalism is particularly threatening to them because it might deprive them of the exclusive control they have had since the creation of Iraq over oil and other natural resources, most of which are actually found in the Kurdish north and the Shi'ite south.
Another article arousing Sunni fury is the one that defines the Arabs of Iraq, rather than the entire state, as part of the Arab nation. Those who traditionally depicted Iraq as the incarnation of Arabism and the vanguard of the pan-Arab cause view this article as a trick to expunge the state's Arab identity and to elevate Kurdish and Shi'ite identities at their expense. Indeed, the Sunni discourse is bitterly resentful of the constitutional provision that Kurdish be made an official language throughout Iraq and not just in the Kurdish region. And the Shi'ites are also viewed with suspicion as a foreign element, not authentically Arab, which will sooner or later link up with Iran. These fears explain the panicked Sunni calls for help from the Arab world and even from the United Nations to fight against this proposed constitutional order.
These two issues illustrate a whole host of other problems under discussion. Cardinal questions such as religion and the state, the public role of clergy, sources of law, the status of women, treatment of former Ba'thists, division of power between center and periphery, the role of the army and para-military forces, and the status of Kirkuk suffuse debates over all 139 articles of the constitution, and almost any one of them could produce an explosive outcome.
In fact, the real test of this constitution, as of all previous constitutions, will not be in the drafting of the document but rather in the relations of forces on the ground. Consequently, any celebrations by the Shi'ites, the Kurds and their American allies over the promulgation of a draft constitution are, at best, premature. In practice, nation-building and state-building in Iraq are proceeding in very erratic ways. On the one hand, Kurds and Shi'ites are pulling in the direction of identity-construction that takes Iraq further and further away from the vision of a unified state. On the other hand, Sunnis are waging what looks like a desperate but increasingly futile struggle to restore an Iraq that no longer exists. But the Sunni war against the constitution and against the stabilization of the situation on the ground may go on for a long time; despite their weakened state since the collapse of the Ba'th regime, they still have considerable capacity to sabotage developments not to their liking. Moreover, there is no functioning center, and social and economic trends do not promise an easy evolution of the new Iraq envisaged by its founders.
The new Iraqi constitution as presented to Parliament is not the outcome of long-term social and political processes leading to a social contract agreed among large segments of the population. Instead, it is the result of hasty acts, various internal and external pressures, and the constraints of time and place. Even if it is approved by Iraqis in October, there is therefore no assurance that it be a major factor in the formulation of the character of the country.
Tel Aviv Notes is published by TEL AVIV UNIVERSITY The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies www.tau.ac.il/jcss/ & The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies http://www.dayan.org/ through the generosity of Sari and Israel Roizman, Philadelphia
Does it matter? No. Iraq is going to collapse like a house of cards once the US leaves, either from internal strife or from its "Muslim brothers" invading and destroying all that has been accomplished. Iraq is a lost cause.
So was ours you moron. What is it about the more education a person gets, the more cut off from reality they become? What this idiot fails to consider is you have to start SOME where. It is a work in progress just like a Democratic Iraq.
Wow, you can tell the future. Hey man, who is going to win the Superbowl this year? With that gift, what are you doing wasting your time here? Since you can foretell the future, let's go break Vegas.
"There is nothing more difficult to execute, nor more dubious of success, nor more dangerous to administer, than to inbtroduce a new system of things, for he who introduces it has all those who profit from the old system as enemies, and only lukewarm allies in those who coulde profit from a new system.
In short, the Iraqi people don't want it bad enough, and there are enough people with a vested interest in seeing the new government fail that they will continue to attack it until it does.
Iraq might well break into three self-governing provinces: rich and prosperous democratic Kurdistan, rich and prosperous democratic Shiite-land and the poor, demented, oil-less Sunni Side of the Street. And that would still be a total victory for Bush's foreign policy: democracy in the ME.
Does ours matter anymore?
Iraq is going to be a client state of Iran. 3/4 of the population are Shiites just like in Iran. The Shiites run Iran. The U.S. CIA (not a political organization like the White House) has written that a civil war would erupt inside Iraq.
This Iraq war is just a diversion by Pres. Bush to distract attention from the real financial criminals who financed 9/11 and are still operating. Six wealthy Saudis have been identified as the financers within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia which is also NOT a Democracy but a theocracy. The real war should have been fought against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Wahhabis, but a prostitute does not wage war against her chief petroleum pimp and supplier. Yes, I know the U.S. gets it's oil from Venezuela, Mexico, Nigeria etc. but if Saudi Arabia failed to produce then the Japanese et al would have to infringe upon our supply, thus further driving up the price.
For more insightful information concerning the Kingdom of Saudi Arabi's role in the promotion of terrorism read,
"Hatred's Kingdom" by Dore Gold. I am suprised that the Bush administration has not tried to suppress this book on the basis of "national security".
Occupation: International Drilling Consultant
Suppression by "important" government officials only gives something an air of credibility (whether it deserves it or not). Another conspiracy theory, however...is just another conspiracy theory.
The birth-pangs of Iraq's new constitution are symptomatic of the deep crisis afflicting the country, and even if an agreed document is eventually produced, it may not only fail to resolve the country's underlying problems but could actually make them worse.
In fact, no Iraqi constitution ever became the authoritative framework to regulate political processes or determine the country's identity and orientation. Instead, they all served only one purpose: to legitimize the regime in power.
Today there is no "regime" in power.....The Iraqis PEOPLE will have the final say in what this constitution says.
Iraq is going to be a client state of Iran.
Wanna bet?
3/4 of the population are Shiites just like in Iran.
Hugh difference between the two.
Iraq is going to be a client state of Iran.
You could make an argument that the reverse will happen.
A Conversation with Ibrahim al-Jaafari (long piece, but worth the time)
Council on Foreign Relations ^ | PRIME MINISTER IBRAHIM JAAFARI
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1474090/posts
http://www.cfr.org/publication/8203/conversation_with_ibrahim_aljaafari.html?jsessionid=d9a919379c32766b4dc800f6ceee4358
PRIME MINISTER IBRAHIM JAAFARI: I greet through you the American nation and all that it has given to the Iraqi people and to the world during this difficult phase. It stood, America stood by the Iraqi people in helping it to overcome all difficulties and trials.
Ever since Saddam came to power, from 1962 to 2003, and despite the geographic distance between the people, between the land of Iraq and the land of America, although I’m sure you have followed very carefully through the channels and the media the reality of what is happening in Iraq. And the education of that which has lived on the ground and he who lives in Iraq and witnesses what’s going on is always different to people who only hear about what’s going on. And many politicians who come to Iraq see a vision and an image that’s totally different to what the media portrays.
I would like to talk to you during this period and take questions as well. I would like to talk about where Iraq was before and where is it now, and what is our vision of the future for Iraq.
What has happened in Iraq during this short period of what has taken place are many steps and important steps in Iraq. First of all, Iraq has witnessed a qualitative change and freedom which have taken place in Iraq. At the time when all that was in Iraq was one dictatorship, one leader of a state, who was also the leader of the party and a military leader as well, and the person who was the head of the media. And this is how a dictatorship was encompassed in the character of Saddam Hussein and ruled with an iron fist.
Whereas today there are so many parties, political parties, and many political gatherings and many political figures and a diversity of media that speaks freely. We do not claim that we have reached full maturity and this is the last—we do not claim that this is the last step in democracy. However, despite the short time that has passed, we have strived and accomplished tremendous achievements.
There is a quality of change in the participation of women in Iraq today. Today parliament has over 80 women, members of parliament, out of 300—out of 275. There are, therefore, 81 members of parliament who participate in the National Assembly. There are six ministers in the cabinet, and there is one woman who will be deputy prime minister with me in the cabinet.
And this, even in your society, is a record. It is true that women participate more in this society. However, you must agree with me that there is a qualitative improvement and increase in the role of women in Iraqi society. And when I say this, I do not mean that women only attend just to be present. Indeed, they are very active in society, participating fully in every aspect of political life and every aspect of all other lives, all other aspects of life in Iraq.
The Iraqi woman has strived and sacrificed, and many women have been executed by Saddam Hussein and have sacrificed and given a lot for the cause of freedom. And many have been forced to go into exile, and many have disappeared as a result of the oppression of Saddam Hussein. Whereas today, Iraqi women participate in a real way in the political process, in the parliament, and also take a role in the government. And we are certain that the Iraq parliament reflects the makeup of the Iraqi people. The demographic changes and variety in Iraq are tremendous.
All political factions are available. All different religions are available. There is a variety of political ideology. Sectarian and religious varieties are all available in the small size, the area of Iraq. This variety has been expressed in the government and in the parliament. As far as the government, it has been recently formed in the last two months and has the whole variety of all sections of Iraqi society.
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