Posted on 08/28/2005 6:42:16 PM PDT by bamaroots04
POLITICALLY MOTIVATED MAYOR WAITS TOO LATE TO DECLARE MANDATORY EVACUATIONS. THE FEDERAL GOVT NEEDS THE POWER TO OVERRIDE LOCAL POLITICS AND ORDER EVACUATIONS.
The Mayor of New Orleans has blood on his hands. It took President Bush's pleas to finally influence the mayor to call for a mandatory evacuation. Meteorologists have been fairly certain since Thursday that New Orleans was going to be the target of Katrina, and furthermore that in all likelihood Katrina would grow into a Category 4 storm. Experts have warned that a Category 3 storm would ravage New Orleans with 20 foot floods which would require months to drain from the city. A category 3 would induce catastrophic damage in New Orleans. And yet Katrina was predicted to be not just a category 3, but a category 4, so the damage would foreseeably be many times more devastating than the mere 20 foot flood catastrophe a category 3 would induce. Yet the mayor of New Orleans did nothing, wasted precious time, hoping foolishly that the storm track would change.
Now in America for some reason we have delegated the authority to declare mandatory evacuations to the mayors of affected areas. There is a tremendous flaw in this system. People become increasingly complacent and aggravated when they are forced to evacuate for a storm and it misses them entirely. The many "false alarm" evacuations prompted by the barrage of hurricanes that hit the US last year but missed New Orleans created a cynical citizenry, upset at the inconvenience of being moved for a false alarm hurricane evacuation.
Fast forward to August 2005, despite Katrina barreling towards New Orleans, the mayor hesitated and hesitated to declare mandatory evacuations because he feared repercussions @ the ballot box if the evac turned out to be another false alarm.
It took the President's persistence to sway the Mayor to finally declare mandatory evacuations Saturday morning. That left authorities in New Orleans two days to organize and assemble mass evacuations. As it stands, there are likely thousands of impoverished, backwoods people who in their reluctance to accept New Orleans impending doom refuse to leave behind the homes that they and their ancestors have proudly inhabited for decades. Naturally, they are induced by a mix of cynicism, denial, and pride to attempt to preserve the fruits of their lives' labor, namely their homes.
There is a good chance that many of the thousands of remaining people will not last through the 200+ wind gusts, +28 foot storm surge, and 20+ foot flood streams. All because of the political concerns of a mayor and an US policy that allows those political concerns to determine whether or not to order evacuations.
Can I ask why? Who wants to acknowledge that their jobs, homes, and neighborhoods will be wiped out? I can imagine that I would be pretty reluctant to do so and that it would be to my benefit to have someone corrale me out and save my life.
N.O. is basiclly an island below sea level with 6 bridges out of it. It is estimated it would take 9 days to evacuate it.
Some of these posters sound like the DUmmies and idiots I heard on talk radio today.
It wasnt a category 5 two days ago. It was a category two, right off the florida coast. Experts predicted fairly confidently that it would grow into a category 4 and hit new orleans, but understandably New Orleanders were not ready to accept that.
To the non-metereologist New Orleander, a category two several hundred miles away doesnt scare you enough to convince you to leave behind your homeland. Im sure they thought that even if it hit NEw Orleans, that it would stay a fairly weak storm and that in such circumstances they would be able to look after their belongings by staying behind and waiting the storm out.
I don't see any good solution to this problem.
Nobody knew with any certainty even yesterday that this would hit New Orleans, although it certainly was looking likely. On Friday it was just a good guess.
Do we want a system where anyplace a hurricane could possible hit is mandatorily evactuated several days in advance?
Easy to say yes if you're not the one who has to pack up and try to leave. However, a system like this guarantees that 90-95% of evacuations will be a waste of time and money.
These things are called an act of God for a reason. These poor people have to make the best decisions that they can and hope they made the right one. Not for us to second guess them.
Yes, I do.
Would you have left New Orleans two days ago? I wouldnt.
After all, Katrina was just a category 2 right off the coast of florida. Conventional wisdom says that hurricanes weaken when they get close to shore. It also says that metereologist s dont know what they are talking about most of the time. Im not a metereologist, and I suspect most of us in this forum arent. Left to my own device, I would have decided that it wasnt big enough of a threat to evacuate.
However, the federal government knew better. THe National WEather Service foresaw with conviction that the storm was growing into a category 4 storm and hit New Orleans head-on.
They had the insight. The non-metereologist population of New Orleans DID NOT.
The people that had the insight should have had the power to tell the people who didnt to get the hell out of dodge.
Had the order been given earlier, say on Saturday as the federal govt had wanted, people could have gotten out of the way of the storm. Because of the less than 24 hour notice, most people, if they've been able to leave @ all, have traveled less than 100 miles from New Orleans. Therefore there are in almost as much danger as they would have been in New Orleans.
That might make an interesting essay, but it won't withstand critical analysis.
Even now I just saw the traffic on the tv on I-10 near Baton Rouges and it was bumper to bumper at 10:00 pm LA time...Why don't they close down the opposite side freeway and mike it all 1-way so that they can unlock the gridlock? Who's asleep at the transportation switch here? I personally think people should have taken matters themselves and left earlier, but seeing this was very disturbing because you KNOW no one is driving TOWARDS the towns, so why not fix the traffic patterns to help out?
Okay imagine this. People in the backwoods find out Saturday that there is a category 2 storm right off the coast of florida that metereologists think could grow in intensity and hit new orleans. I'm sure they will go running for the hills.
However, the federal govt, realizing the metereologists' almost certainty that the storm would progress into a cat 4 and hit new orleasn, would have the wisdom to order an evacuation with enough time for people to get out of the way.
On foxnews, they are telling of tourists who cant get out and also informing people that the new orleans govt isnt even sure that the superdome's roof can withstand the 200+ mph gusts.
Even those in shelters in new orleans arent safe. This is the worst storm in history, and unfortunately as in old times, people were not alerted. And I pray its not the case, but theres a large chance that the death toll will resemble those old storms which killed hundreds and even thousands.
My mother taught grade school in the DC slums for years. Once she had a girl in her class who basically came to school in rags, so my mother got up a few bags of our clothes for her. Being a little concerned for her safety in a bad neighborhood, my mother asked the girl to get her father to come and take in the bags (this was in the days when folks' still had fathers), rather than for my mother to go into the project.
The father comes down in a full length fur coat!! I learned early that those who apear to be poor and marginal are often making unwise choices with the resources that come their way.
Not true. As a Floridian who lived through three of four hurricanes last year, I can tell you it is much better handled on a local level. I live in the state known for hurricanes, yet all other states on the Gulf Coast should be as well prepared for hurricanes as we are.
If what has been said about these politicians in Looooos-iana is true, there is no excuse for them not having a plan and working that plan before now. I know they will blame George Bush for every bit of damage they suffer, but they will be the ones truly responsible.
As far as locals being understandably incapable, I'm sorry, but I don't understand it. Our Governor, Jeb Bush, is more capable than anyone in this country to handle hurricanes. Our mayors and county officials have had hurricane evacuation plans developed for many years. If these clowns were wishful thinking that New Orleans voodoo was going to save them, they were delusional.
In an answer to an idiot question from a reporter last year Jeb said this, "Hurricanes are not linear thinkers." You can't predict where they will go but you can prepare for them to hit you. Unfortunately for the people of New Orleans, wishful thinking is going to teach their politicians a very painful lesson. Hurricanes are nothing to play with and they can't be wished away.
It is disturbing to think that they have so little concern for their people. I will continue to pray for the people in the storm's path. I know how difficult these storms can be.
That's okay as a declamation, but it will appeal only to those who like the idea of cameras on every streetcorner and massive gov't databases on the health of every citizen including those who live deep in the bayou. It is not the American way.
This isnt and two days ago wasnt viewed as an ordinary storm. Metereologists recognized the unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf and because of that were able to predict with near certainty the path of the storm.
I don't think average Americans, including me, were able to see that this storm was nothing like others before it and that unlike predecessors was extremely predictable and that the prediction that it would strengthen and hit New Orleans was almost certain.
Maybe non-metereologists didnt put faith in the storm track, but those w/ the necessary info knew that their predictions were extremely likely.
Oh yes we NEED the NANNY / MAMMY PLANTATION SLAVE STATE run by the federal govt!
"Hi I'm from the federal gubmint - and I'm here to --- errr --- help you!
How many socialist / communists do we have claiming to be "conservative Americans" on FR? 1/4? 1/2? Sometimes it seems that high - if not higher!
Seems to be a pretty clear case of interstate commerce to me. NOLA is a sea port, a river port and a rail hub. I can't imagine why they were sending people to hole up at the Superdome instead of directing them to train cars, freighters, and river barges that would take them to shelters in Jackson, Galveston, Pensacola, and Memphis, or points beyond. It's an effort that would cross state lines, and therefore require federal coordination. And it's the way we ought to be thinking.
When a storm like this is coming, everything that rolls, floats or flies ought to be headed to somewhere safer. And it ought to have as many people on it as it can safely carry. That includes cars on the dealer lots -- while the rental cars were all booked, there are thousands of cars sitting on new and used car lots that are almost certain to be an insurance write-off when they might have been driven to safety and saved lives in the process.
We need a Dunkirk battle plan for disasters like these. Have a system in place to coordinate activities and compensate for costs. If I have a barge I want to get to a safer port, I should know a phone number I can call to offer passage. Instead of people holing up at the Supedome, they should have been gathering there to get on schoolbuses that would take them to an evacuation craft.
Boxcars, flat cars, barges, freighters, schoolbuses, tankers, fishing boats, pleasure boats, vans, Fed Ex planes, military transports, anything smoking -- they're not luxurious transportation, but riding any of them for a few hours would be a more pleasant experience than squatting in the Superdome, especially by day two or three without power or running water.
We ought to look to this storm for lessons, because we'll need a similar outside-the-box, multi-phase approach if we ever face a WMD attack. No vehicle should leave the evacuation zone with an empty seat. The airlines are good at offering cheap last-minute fares online to fill excess capacity, and surely we could apply the same technology to reach out to more vehicle owners and save lives.
Comparing the systems in Florida and Louisiana is not helpful.
Florida is pummeled by several hurricanes every year. They know that storms are serious business. They have learned from past hurricanes and have through experience developed top-line hurricane response systems.
Louisiana, and New Orleans specifically, has nowhere near the hurricane preparedness as Florida. Unlike Florida, New Orleans has not been hit by a hurricane since Chemile in 1962!!!
They don't have a plan. It hasnt happened in 40+ years.
That's right. Dress rehearsal.
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