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Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
You have family all over the place down there.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_strike.html
Strike probability map still runs from Brownsville, TX to Tampa.
same track..current pressure down to 945 mb.....145 MPH at landfall right over NO at 2pm on monday....46 hours to go..they wont have enough time to get everyone out
...Katrina re-organizing over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...
at 4 PM CDT...2100z...the Hurricane Watch is extended westward to Intracoastal City Louisiana and eastward to the Florida-Alabama border. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect along the northern Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City to the Alabama-Florida border.
A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf Coast later tonight or Sunday. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Katrina.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for the Florida Keys.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located near latitude 24.6 north...longitude 85.6 west or about 380 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 240 miles west of Key West Florida.
Katrina is moving toward the west near 7 mph. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...with higher gusts. Katrina is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Katrina could become a category four hurricane later tonight or Sunday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 km. NOAA buoy 42003 located northwest of the center recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph with a gust to 58 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA aircraft is 945 mb...27.91 inches.
Storm surge flooding along the southwestern coast of Florida should subside today.
Katrina is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches over western Cuba...and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected over the Yucatan Peninsula. Heavy rains from Katrina should begin to affect the central Gulf Coast Sunday evening. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches...are possible across the central Gulf Coast.
Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...24.6 N... 85.6 W. Movement toward...west near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph. Minimum central pressure... 945 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM CDT.
Forecaster Beven
Nothing has happened today, at least so far, to make this disaster less likely. And the longer New Orleans sits in the bullseye, the more likely it is that the doomsday scenario will occur. Where the Saints play will be the least of our concerns.
Anyone know what kind of numbers "tourist" evacuees are added on top of the resident numbers.......or is this not a busy tourist tiem in that part of LA?
Katrina is certainly shaping up as a classic case of 'if it can happen it will and usually at the worst possible time'.
I am still dumbfounded at the lack of urgency on the part of the governor. Someone in LA has to take her aside and explain to her in language a second grader could understand the implications of this impending disaster.
Didn't they evacuate people into that stadium once last year when a hurricane was threatening? Or am I dreaming? LOL.
Oh, sure. I agree with that of course. Just making conversation. I'm from the Bulls-Eye. I have family and many friends there. I assure you... I know what we're talking about here.
Her liberal constituency stand to lose their livelihoods. She's toast.
Yes. The Super Dome serves as an evacuation area.
Un-frickin'-believable!!!!
What about these reporters headed to downtown NOLA for to cover the storm?
I only pray that Katrina continues to confound the computer modelling and changes course again. If the present course holds, it shapes up to be a replay of Camille.
They have the incoming lanes almost empty now. They must be about to do the switch to contraflow.
Yeh, imagine a 130 pound rat (Hillary).
"What about these reporters headed to downtown NOLA for to cover the storm?"
Jeff Goldblatt with FNC on the phone said he's headed to Jackson Square in the Quarter. That's the last place I'd want to be during a storm like this - I pray he doesn't plan on staying down there.
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