Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Since I will be moving to Florida shortly, better get me on the Hurricane PING list.
Done
That graph shows it has already made a turn, that has not happened, gonna go further west.
OK, I just dropped in for a visit. Why do you want this hurricane?
I predict a major panic-attack for the area sometime Sat.
I'll be leaving O'dark-30 Sunday with a full tank of gas, a full carton of cigarattes, and wearing sunglasses.
This is a screenshot of the latest storm track from NOAA which is overlayed on the latest hi-res radar which is then overlayed on the Google Earth Sat map of the region. (1658 EDT).
most recent reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate the central pressure has dropped to 965 mb...but the
flight-level winds have only increased to 94 kt at 700 mb...which
is about an 85-kt surface wind. A 1701z dropsonde in the northeast
quadrant reported 85 kt surface winds. Therefore...the initial
intensity is held at 85 kt for this advisory...even though the
central pressure supports about 95-kt surface winds. The eyewall in
the northwest quadrant has remained open...probably due to dry air
entrainment...and this may partly explain the difference between
the observed winds and what the central pressure typically
supports.
The initial motion is west-southwestward...or 255 degress...at 07
kt. Katrina remains caught between the northeasterly flow on the
west side of an inverted trough over the western Caribbean Sea and
the northeasterly flow in the southeast quadrant of the subtropical
ridge located to the north and northwest of Katrina. Both the ridge
and trough are forecast to slowly weaken over the next 12-24 hours
...Which allow the hurricane to turn more westward...and most of
the NHC model guidance agrees on that scenario. After 24 hours...
the models are in general agreement on a shortwave trough currently
over the northern and Central Plains states to gradually dig
southeastward toward the central and western Gulf of Mexico and
erode the ridge...which allows Katrina to move northward by 72
hours. As a result...the models have shifted significantly westward
and are now in better agreement. This has resulted in the official
forecast track being shifted about 150 nmi west of the previous
track...on the east side of the guidance envelope. However...
projected landfall is still about 72 hours away...so further
modifications in the forecast track are possible.
Katrina is expected to be moving over the Gulf loop current after 36
hours...which when combined with decreasing vertical shear...should
allow the hurricane to reach category four status before landfall
occurs. This is consistent with the SHIPS and GFDL models...which
bring Katrina up to 118 kt. The FSU superensemble model is more
robust and brings Katrina up to 129 kt just before landfall.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 26/2100z 24.8n 82.9w 85 kt
12hr VT 27/0600z 24.9n 83.9w 90 kt
24hr VT 27/1800z 25.2n 85.1w 95 kt
36hr VT 28/0600z 25.8n 86.4w 100 kt
48hr VT 28/1800z 26.9n 87.7w 105 kt
72hr VT 29/1800z 30.0n 88.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 30/1800z 35.0n 86.5w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 31/1800z 40.5n 79.0w 25 kt...dissipating inland
Just got home and now watching the Weather Channel.
Tornado in Marathon, FL?
Still at 100 mph and hanging over the Keys.
Katrina expected to become a major hurricane.
Discussion is out...
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt2.html
...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE GULF LOOP CURRENT AFTER 36 HOURS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITHDECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH BRING KATRINA UP TO 118 KT. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL IS MORE ROBUST AND BRINGS KATRINA UP TO 129 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.</br>
I was surprised to see them up the landfall forecast to cat4. I mean, the conditions look darn good... but they are usually conservative.
That's an awesome image. Afraid it's going to cause our dial-up FReeper friends to have seizures though. Please post link next time! :o)
Didn't Bastardi claim that Dennis would hit New Orleans?
I just want her rain.....no wind or tornados. It is incredibly dry here.....and hot and miserable
This is gonna be nasty, where ever it hits.
Bastardi claimed Dennis would hit New Orleans, and that Emily would hit Texas.
And as best I can tell, yesterday he was talking about a quick sharp turn up into the Florida peninsula for Katrina.
We really need the rain.
oy....
not good...
I think if that eyewall closes up we may see a very rapid intensification rate.
Maybe there will be some big time eyewall cycles that will knock the intensity down some, but.....
You and that little birdie...speaking of Bastardi...he predicted the last cane a NC hit...it hit Mexico...LOL
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