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Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II
NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:


Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; katrina; livehurricanekatrina; tropical; weather
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To: NautiNurse
Bam, the yellow track just ran at 2EDT.
341 posted on 08/26/2005 1:18:30 PM PDT by dogbyte12
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To: dogbyte12

You in Houma? Folks there need to think about getting the hell out.


342 posted on 08/26/2005 1:18:52 PM PDT by numberonepal (Don't Even Think About Treading On Me)
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To: numberonepal

About 25 miles straight north of houma


343 posted on 08/26/2005 1:20:33 PM PDT by dogbyte12
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To: dogbyte12
It's projected path looks to go right in my front yard or so.

This is what Dennis did to us. The local weatherman even mentioned our specific neighborhood just before Dennis made landfall. After a quick change of undies, we settled in for our first stay-at-home Hurricane. Hopefully Katrina will not follow the same path. This time we've made hotel reservations in the event we are in for a direct hit.

344 posted on 08/26/2005 1:20:48 PM PDT by JesusBmyGod
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To: dogbyte12

It's going to be a rough time for the GOM the next couple of days.


345 posted on 08/26/2005 1:22:08 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: nwctwx

we will see...

I certainly hope you are correct


346 posted on 08/26/2005 1:23:50 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (It's called having class.....)
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To: MikeinIraq

I'm in Destin...and I've got a reeeeelly bad feeling about this one...gas-lines are already 45 min long.

I rode out Erin, Opal, Ivan and Dennis without any damage, but...this one I don't like at all...

Screw it - I just ordered me a hotel in Jacksonville for the week...yes - I gots the heebie-jeebies...trust your instincts...


347 posted on 08/26/2005 1:26:01 PM PDT by baclava
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To: dogbyte12

Damn...I was going fishing in Grand Isle on Monday. May have to board up instead.


348 posted on 08/26/2005 1:26:50 PM PDT by chemicalman (Finally an answer for the prisoner problem at Abu Ghraib: Don't take any.)
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To: baclava

Bastardi just posted a FRIDAY 4:00 PM MAJOR EMERGENCY POST on his private site - KATRINA THREATENING TO BECOME CATASTROPHE.


349 posted on 08/26/2005 1:29:04 PM PDT by CTGOPPER (In a red town, in a blue county, in blue state of CT)
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To: baclava

well do what you think is best...

I'm not in the line of fire like you are :)

Good Luck!!!


350 posted on 08/26/2005 1:29:13 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (It's called having class.....)
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To: dogbyte12

Paradie? I've driven down 90 a time or two through there. Y'all might get a little wet. The pet gator might take up residence closer than you like if the models are correct.


351 posted on 08/26/2005 1:30:31 PM PDT by numberonepal (Don't Even Think About Treading On Me)
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To: baclava

Howdy neighbor, I'm in Navarre. Have you heard of any gas shortages yet? I still need to fill up and have my gas cans full for the generator.


352 posted on 08/26/2005 1:33:07 PM PDT by JesusBmyGod
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To: baclava
I just ordered me a hotel in Jacksonville for the week

Good for you. There is nothing wrong with planning ahead for this storm. You will likely know in plenty of time if you need to cancel the reservation without penalty.

353 posted on 08/26/2005 1:34:39 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: CTGOPPER
Bastardi just posted a FRIDAY 4:00 PM MAJOR EMERGENCY POST on his private site - KATRINA THREATENING TO BECOME CATASTROPHE.

Just visited this thread. Haven't realized before now that Katrina could be a major hurricane . You say it could reach CAT 4??? any links?

354 posted on 08/26/2005 1:35:01 PM PDT by pollywog (Psalm 121;1 I Lift my eyes to the hills from whence cometh my help.)
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To: pollywog

hang on--the 5PM public advisory will be out shortly. They are currently updated every three hours now, and things are changing rapidly. Glad you stopped by!


355 posted on 08/26/2005 1:36:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: All

bump


356 posted on 08/26/2005 1:37:22 PM PDT by tiredoflaundry (9-11 Commission - The largest CYA Operation in history!)
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Comment #357 Removed by Moderator

To: AntiGuv; pollywog
Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 14

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2005

...Katrina continuing to move west-southwestward away from the
Florida Keys...
...Watches and warnings discontinued for Mainland Florida...

 
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...all warnings and watches for peninsular
Florida have been discontinued.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay from Key Largo south and westward to Key West and
the Dry Tortugas.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 24.8 north... longitude 82.9 west or about 70
miles... west-northwest of Key West Florida.

 
Katrina is moving toward the west-southwest near  8 mph. This motion
is forecast to continue this evening...with a gradual turn toward
the west expected on Saturday.

 
Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph...
with higher gusts. Katrina is a category two hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours...and Katrina is forecast to become a category three
...Major... hurricane today and on Saturday.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  25 miles... from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to  85
miles. During the past hour...a sustained wind of 81 mph with a
gust to 105 mph was reported at Dry Tortugas C-man station located
in the southern eyewall. Sustained winds of tropical storm-force
are still occurring across the lower Florida Keys...while wind
gusts to tropical storm-force are occurring across the middle to
upper Florida Keys.

 
The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was  965 mb...28.50 inches.

 
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...
can be expected along the southwest coast of Florida in areas of
onshore flow east of Cape Sable... and in Florida Bay.  Storm surge
will gradually subside tonight.

Katrina is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 8 inches
over the lower Florida Keys...with isolated storm total amounts of
15 to 20 inches. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are expected
over northwestern Cuba...and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected
over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

 
Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight over the
Florida Keys.

 

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...24.8 N... 82.9 W.  Movement
toward...west-southwest near  8 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 965 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.

 
Forecaster Stewart

358 posted on 08/26/2005 1:39:28 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Diddle E. Squat

You are correct. LOL But he is entertaining.


359 posted on 08/26/2005 1:42:02 PM PDT by CTGOPPER (In a red town, in a blue county, in blue state of CT)
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To: NautiNurse

Official forecast track has moved west to around Pascagoula, MS.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html


360 posted on 08/26/2005 1:42:52 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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