Posted on 06/08/2005 5:00:47 PM PDT by Remember_Salamis
Im tired of this MSM talk of McCain, Frist, Guiliani, Romney, and Pataki for the 2008 nomination. Out of those, onyl Frist has a chance at winning the primaries. So let's take a look at some real candidates.
Republicans with a shot in 2008:
Sen. Allen - the front-runner Sen. Brownback - Probably running for VP Sen. Thune - His name has been thrown around as a serious "sleeper" candidate in 2008 Gov. Pawlenty - Popular Conservative Gov. could give the GOP the great lakes states Gov. Sanford Gov. Bush (won't run) Gov. Owens (if marraige is fixed) Newt Gingrich
High in the running for this conservative (and no, that does not mean someone who is hard, hard right, whatever that means), are Allen, Frist and Brownback. There is a deep Republican bench, so there are others who have been and not been mentioned who could get it done and I'm not ruling out. The "talent" on display during the filibuster business and the judicial hearings has been a pleasure to behold. Newt is a fabulous idea man but can't win. Condi? I'm not sure about a woman to woman match up, but I don't think Hillary! will get the dem nod unless she's got all of their FBI files and they all stink. She's got competition and she won't win the presidency unless she kills several million people, and someone might notice. I love Condi Rice and I'd feel gratified to see her in national elective office, maybe VP, but don't know if that's what she wants. All in all, we have a lot of the right stuff to work with. Life is good.
Truman, Ford and Johnson inherited as prior VPs, Nixon and GHWB had been VPs and in a sense GHWB inherited, Kennedy got shot [the best thing he ever did for the country].
I think Governor Ken Blackwell of Ohio would be more strategic. When he wins the Governorship of Ohio in 2006 (as most expect him to), he will be hot and from a very strategic swing state.
The dream ticket, IMHO, is Jeb Bush and Ken Blackwell. Sew up FL and OH before you are out of the gate and then campaign non-stop in Missouri, Wisconsin, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Nevada looking for an electoral landslide.
You're kidding, right? I support Blackwell for Governor, but he won't win the nomination. The Republican Party of Ohio is so clueless and arrogant that they can't see the disaster coming in '06. IMHO Ted Srickland is going to be the next governor.
Face it. 16 years of Voinovich and Taft have left the state in a mess. RINOs have killed us.
It is almost unheard of for presidents to come directly from the Senate. Of the forty-three presidents of the United States, only two—Warren Harding in 1920 and John Kennedy in 1960—moved straight from the Senate to the White House. Of the fifty-four presidential elections held since 1789, only fifteen saw current or even former senators win. Limiting the time frame to contemporary elections, some of the worst defeats were suffered by senators who had earned their parties’ nominations. Among others, Senators Barry Goldwater (1964), George McGovern (1972), Walter Mondale (1984), and Bob Dole (1996) lost by embarrassing margins. Of the last seven presidents, only Nixon had senatorial experience, and he had but a partial term as senator.
In a paper published two years ago in Political Science Quarterly, Barry C. Burden, a professor at Harvard University, laid out the long odds: Of the 54 presidential elections since 1789, 15 saw current or former senators win; from 1868 to 1972, 16 percent of senators who sought their party's nomination got it, compared with 48 percent of governors; and from 1960 to 1996, while sitting senators made up more than a third of those running for president, just 11 percent won party nods and 2 percent the general election.
See post 144.
RNC will probably select someone not so much in the public view. Like they did with Dubya.
"he dream ticket, IMHO, is Jeb Bush and "
I wouldn't vote for another Bush if my life depended on it (and it might).
"Of the 54 presidential elections since 1789, 15 saw current or former senators win"
Okay so that proves my point. Senators can get elected President.
"16 percent of senators who sought their party's nomination got it, compared with 48 percent of governors"
And that would explain why less than half were senators. What's your point?
Yes, you loyal OH Republicans are to be in the same boat that IL entered in 2002. There is nothing that can be done to reverse the pending OH Central train wreck of 2006, and the trains will continue to be Democrat in IL for years to come too. When will IN by central location train wreck?
What's your point?
Weaknesses: Nondescript Senate record, foes site instances of insensitivity to blacks.
If the worst thing anyone can say about George Allen is that: 1) he's got a "nondescript" record in an institution where Robert Byrd and Teddy Kennedy are among the most esteemed members, and 2) he's been accused of being "insensitive" to a racial/ethnic group that typically casts only 10% of its votes for the GOP in presidential elections . . . then I think Allen's just about got the 2008 GOP nomination sewn up!
I like Forbes, but the GOP can't put him on a major ticket and expect to have any chance of winning. No matter how good he is, he'll scare away a lot of voters because he's got that "psychopath look" in his eyes.
JFK was a Democrat. I said Republican Senator.
Good question. The end result here will depend on how Allen comes across to GOP voters. If he comes across as a leader, then he'll be the "former governor." If he comes across as a limp-wristed moron, then he'll be the "current Senator."
All I'm saying is that it would be silly to judge the presidential candidates based on who's a governor/who's a senator. EVERYBODY on this board seems to disagree with me. I'm worried that we may nominate an inferior candidate solely because some think a Senator can't win a Presidential election, which as I've been saying, is blatantly false.
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