New Mason-Dixon polls just released: FL+4; OH:+2; WV:+8; MN:+1; NM:+5; IA:5; AR:+8; NV:+6

MSNBC ^ | 10/30

[ambrose]

New Mason-Dixon polls just released: FL+4; OH:+2; WV:+8; MN:+1; NM:+5; IA:5; AR:+8; NV:+6

[mlocher]

thanks...blush

[Illinois Rep]

I get the feeling a Candidate who's job approval is 45-50 most likely has a difficult time getting re-elected IF the opponent has HIGH favorable and LOW unfavorable ratings.

IF the candidate is John Kerry who has lower favorable and higher unfavorable I just find it almost impossible for that person to beat an incumbent who has higher favorables and lower unfavorables with a JA rating close to 50%. Just don't see it happening.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

Nationwide
Bush: 49.57%
Kerry: 46.28%

That's very interesting. My calculation of the accumualtion of state-by-state polls (mostly using Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA, Strategic Vision, and ARG) is as follows:

Bush 48.90%
Kerry 45.73%
Turnout 110,000,000
Margin 3,500,000 for Bush

(I projected turnout in 2004 by increasing the total of voters by the growth in population in each state, then multiplying the state polls by that number.)

That implies that about 0.6% of each candidates support level in the national polls is not being caught yet in the state polls. But otherwise, it shows an identical 3.25% race.

[Dan from Michigan]

He can't do much worse than 2000. It's the dems 2nd best county(only John Engler won it recently - against Fieger). I'd like to see Bush beat Posthumus' numbers and get 40% in Genesee and 25% in Flint if possible.

GENESEE COUNTY (2000)
Bush 66641 - 34.92%
Gore 119833 - 62.78%
Total Voters - 190865

GENESEE COUNTY (2002)
Posthumus 51828 - 38.62%
Granholm 80687 - 60.12%
Total - 134213

Flint City (2000) Bush - 6837 - 14.62% Gore - 39066 - 83.55% Total - 46757

Flint City (2002) Posthumus 5252 - 18.11%
Granholm 23343 - 80.48%

[mplsconservative]

No blushing allowed. You were right on! (<:

[processing please hold]

Louisianas 9 E.V. Are tied up in a bow and waiting for Tuesday to open and give to Bush.

It's only....but it's all we have.

[LegalEagle61]

FREEP THIS POLL!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6367631/site/newsweek/

It is not overly hit by dims yet so we can freep it to get us ahead.

[LegalEagle61]

to freep the poll scroll down alittle and click where it says INTERACTIVE POLL...it is close to the picture of the dweeb red head on the right. (devil)

[FreeReign]

New Mason-Dixon polls just released: FL+4; OH:+2; WV:+8; MN:+1; NM:+5; IA:5; AR:+8; NV:+6

Meanwhile, NY edged up a fraction and is now at -99.98.

[FreeReign]

New Mason-Dixon polls just released: FL+4; OH:+2; WV:+8; MN:+1; NM:+5; IA:5; AR:+8; NV:+6

Meanwhile, NY edged up a fraction and is now at -99.98.

[dc-zoo]

What's more is there is still time for improvement with these numbers. Also Bush is near or above 10 points higher approval ratings than kerry in most of these states and the jobs numbers in Ohio are about even.

[Dan from Michigan]

After looking at the Florida/Ohio possible scenarios, I had to go back and look at your thread.

I'm cautiously optimistic.

[teletech]

It is not overly hit by dims yet so we can freep it to get us ahead.

You spoke to soon. The RATS are hitting it bigtime.

[ForGod'sSake]

Sorry for the rant!

Not to worry; needs to be said from time to time; as a reminder if nothing else...

FGS

[processing please hold]

From this side of the screen I'm tempted to say, children, children, stop bickering amongst yourselves. Wait till your father gets home...you're gonna get it!

Bush will win...polls smolls...Bush will win.

This country has more good people in it than bad. Have some faith in your fellow Americans to do what's right.

[Muleteam1]

If Yahoo's weather report of "mainly sunny" for Tuesday holds out for eastern New Mexico, the stronghold of the State's farming and ranching conservatism, here in New Mexico we should do okay for GWB. In 2000 eastern New Mexico had snowstorms which prevented many from going to the polls. I think this year an eruption of Mount Capulin would not stop poll goers.

Muleteam1

[plushaye]

Not my calcs but Jay Cost's. Sounds like you both are on the same statistical wavelength. I agree with both of you.

[tgiles]

May have been posted already, but check out the bolded text in this article.

msnbc on masondixon

ALL HOPE IS NOT LOST KERRY FANS

[FredZarguna]

PA is going to be a stretch for W. I'm in the Philly media market and the feeling is very pro-Kerry here. The local media is relentless and, as always, voter fraud and ballot stuffing will be an issue in the city.

Philly means nothing. Vote fraud means nothing either. It's already factored into the PA equation and isn't as large as the urban (and I do mean urban) legends make it. PA comes down to just two areas that Bush must flip: Philly suburbs, and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Everywhere else is already heavily going for Bush (rural, central, NE, NW, SW) or Kerry (Philadelphia and Allegheny counties).

Even if Rendell delivers his promised 350K in Philadelphia, he must still deliver the suburbs and the Coal region to deliver the state. If suburban Philly RINOS and Italian and other ethnic Catholics in the Coal region go Bush, we will win PA.

Get down to Bush HQ, tomorrow and get on the phones.

[chesty_puller]

You got to see this! I found this at DU. They are warning of a 'trap' on the ballots in Texas.

People in Texas are voting for both Kerry and the Libertarian candidate listed underneath his name. The Libertarian's name is follwed by (LIB)

In early voting lines, voters have asked if the (LIB) on the sample ballot means 'Liberal'.(BWWWAAAAHHHH)

Votes will be (and I have every reason to believe they alreay have in early voting) lost due to people selecting both the (LIB) and Kerry.

Ironically, e-voting won't allow you to select both.

PLEASE PLEASE check your ballot BEFORE you mark it. Make sure you select Kerry and NOT the (Lib) candidate when you mean to vote for Kerry.

PLEASE PLEASE pass this on for Tuesday.