Posted on 10/30/2004 6:18:41 PM PDT by ambrose
New Mason-Dixon polls just released: FL+4; OH:+2; WV:+8; MN:+1; NM:+5; IA:5; AR:+8; NV:+6
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...
I get the feeling a Candidate who's job approval is 45-50 most likely has a difficult time getting re-elected IF the opponent has HIGH favorable and LOW unfavorable ratings.
IF the candidate is John Kerry who has lower favorable and higher unfavorable I just find it almost impossible for that person to beat an incumbent who has higher favorables and lower unfavorables with a JA rating close to 50%. Just don't see it happening.
That's very interesting. My calculation of the accumualtion of state-by-state polls (mostly using Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA, Strategic Vision, and ARG) is as follows:
Bush 48.90%
Kerry 45.73%
Turnout 110,000,000
Margin 3,500,000 for Bush
(I projected turnout in 2004 by increasing the total of voters by the growth in population in each state, then multiplying the state polls by that number.)
That implies that about 0.6% of each candidates support level in the national polls is not being caught yet in the state polls. But otherwise, it shows an identical 3.25% race.
GENESEE COUNTY (2000)
Bush 66641 - 34.92%
Gore 119833 - 62.78%
Total Voters - 190865
GENESEE COUNTY (2002)
Posthumus 51828 - 38.62%
Granholm 80687 - 60.12%
Total - 134213
Flint City (2000) Bush - 6837 - 14.62% Gore - 39066 - 83.55% Total - 46757
Flint City (2002) Posthumus 5252 - 18.11%
Granholm 23343 - 80.48%
No blushing allowed. You were right on! (<:
It's only....but it's all we have.
FREEP THIS POLL!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6367631/site/newsweek/
It is not overly hit by dims yet so we can freep it to get us ahead.
to freep the poll scroll down alittle and click where it says INTERACTIVE POLL...it is close to the picture of the dweeb red head on the right. (devil)
Meanwhile, NY edged up a fraction and is now at -99.98.
Meanwhile, NY edged up a fraction and is now at -99.98.
What's more is there is still time for improvement with these numbers. Also Bush is near or above 10 points higher approval ratings than kerry in most of these states and the jobs numbers in Ohio are about even.
I'm cautiously optimistic.
You spoke to soon. The RATS are hitting it bigtime.
Not to worry; needs to be said from time to time; as a reminder if nothing else...
FGS
Bush will win...polls smolls...Bush will win.
This country has more good people in it than bad. Have some faith in your fellow Americans to do what's right.
Muleteam1
Not my calcs but Jay Cost's. Sounds like you both are on the same statistical wavelength. I agree with both of you.
ALL HOPE IS NOT LOST KERRY FANS
Philly means nothing. Vote fraud means nothing either. It's already factored into the PA equation and isn't as large as the urban (and I do mean urban) legends make it. PA comes down to just two areas that Bush must flip: Philly suburbs, and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Everywhere else is already heavily going for Bush (rural, central, NE, NW, SW) or Kerry (Philadelphia and Allegheny counties).
Even if Rendell delivers his promised 350K in Philadelphia, he must still deliver the suburbs and the Coal region to deliver the state. If suburban Philly RINOS and Italian and other ethnic Catholics in the Coal region go Bush, we will win PA.
Get down to Bush HQ, tomorrow and get on the phones.
People in Texas are voting for both Kerry and the Libertarian candidate listed underneath his name. The Libertarian's name is follwed by (LIB)
In early voting lines, voters have asked if the (LIB) on the sample ballot means 'Liberal'.(BWWWAAAAHHHH)
Votes will be (and I have every reason to believe they alreay have in early voting) lost due to people selecting both the (LIB) and Kerry.
Ironically, e-voting won't allow you to select both.
PLEASE PLEASE check your ballot BEFORE you mark it. Make sure you select Kerry and NOT the (Lib) candidate when you mean to vote for Kerry.
PLEASE PLEASE pass this on for Tuesday.
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