Posted on 10/30/2004 6:18:41 PM PDT by ambrose
New Mason-Dixon polls just released: FL+4; OH:+2; WV:+8; MN:+1; NM:+5; IA:5; AR:+8; NV:+6
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...
I found that post after I replied to you. Thanks, I'm happy now.
According to RCP here is the Mason Dixon poll for Florida that was completed by October 18:
Florida| 10/14-10/17 625 LV 4.0 48 45 - Bush +3
That figure is different from the above, so despite the ambiguity of the article, it must contain the recent figures for at least that state.
One problem, though: These polls were completed before the Bin Laden tape. While we assumed that it would help Bush, several polls suggest otherwise.
The RATS left a leaflet on my door today practically inviting us the CHEAT via the Provisional Ballots.
don't forget IOWA... Gore took that too... this time, Bush will...
Who ever win Florida wins the election. W will NOT lose Florida.
I love Bush but agree as a nation we are on the wrong track. From abortion to whats on television now and the internet, it seems extremism is currency of the day. We have forgotten what really matters, and sadly, our sense of reality was become warped. I mean when junior high kids have viewed just about every kind of porn before their first kiss, what does that tell you. And I also cringed at a new statistic which showed the number of marriages that have ended - not just because of affairs - but because one spouse refused to accept the other's bisexual lifestyle. I guess that begs the question...what does love or kids have to do with it.
This passage shows how being in a union is less likely to guarantee a Democrat vote.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6367631/site/newsweek/
"Kerry has seen exactly the opposite shift. His favorable/unfavorable ratings are 47 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable this week, basically even. Last week, his favorability rating was 50 percent and his unfavorable 45 percent. The anti-Kerry ads may be having an effect, especially with blue-collar, socially conservative white voters. Although pollsters say the sample size is too small to be statistically solid (with a margin of error of plus or minus nine points), in the new poll, labor-union households—part of the Democratic base—are leaning toward Bush 54 percent to 42 percent. Last week, they were leaning toward Kerry 61 to 35 (with a margin of error of plus or minus 11). Again, it’s a tiny sample of just 153 households, but if other polls bear out the trend, Kerry could face a Reagan Democrat renaissance."
And look at New Mexico.
Both states went for Gore in 2000.
:>)
The link says October 27-29. Very likely they had a typo, since corrected. Another apparent error in the source: Kerry's "neutral" and "unfavorable" numbers appear to be reversed. No way 41% can be neutral on Kerry.
Would like to have them be more recent.
I'm sure it is a real nail biter there.
LOL!
Well that does say what you are saying and that may be true, but if you go to the link on the original post and go to the story, scroll all the way to the bottom it says something entirely different.
It all very confusing.
I agree that Mason-Dixon is one of, if not the best state pollster. Most importantly, this outfit is not biased, as are Zogby, ARG and others, who dope the numbers by a few points to favor the Democrats through the hocus-pocus of "weighting for political affiliation." But, we must all bear in mind that there is sampling error. With this in mind, here is what these Mason-Dixon polls say:
We are ahead enough to expect to win in: AR, CO, FL, IA, MO, NM, NV and WV. (Most of this we already knew or suspected, based on prior polling, fundamental data, and candidate behavior. The really good news in this mix is FL.)
We are within 1 or 2 points, either ahead or behind, in: MI, MN, NH, OH, PA and WI. We CAN and should try real hard to win each and every one of these states on election day. Let's paint the map red.
The other side is ahead enough to win in: OR.
Now, I've got a plan to win OR, and HI and WA (as well as to help sister Murkowski in Alaska), and that's to win in the east before the polls are closed in the west. Call it Electoral College Shock and Awe!
Oh, did I mention that lots of precipitation is expected in the Pacific northwest? Rain ... it's the infantryman's friend.
"The RATS left a leaflet on my door today practically inviting us the CHEAT via the Provisional Ballots."
You should scan it into your computer and post it. The DNC effort to conjure up fraudulent votes is unprecedented on the scale we are currently seeing.
These are the most recent polls. For confirmation see:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6363705/
It's a brand new article from MSNBC talking about the new Mason-Dixon results including a 4 point FL lead for Bush and a 2 point OH lead.
Ok...
As it turns out, it seems they ARE all new polls....the numbers are different from the previous M-D polls.
Still, MSNBC sort of botched updating the text.
GOOD!! GO BUSH/CHENEY GO!!!
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