New Mason-Dixon polls just released: FL+4; OH:+2; WV:+8; MN:+1; NM:+5; IA:5; AR:+8; NV:+6

MSNBC ^ | 10/30

[ambrose]

New Mason-Dixon polls just released: FL+4; OH:+2; WV:+8; MN:+1; NM:+5; IA:5; AR:+8; NV:+6

[comebacknewt]

Read the analysis linked in post 81. It states clearly that these are brand new polls.

[tbeatty]

That's a boiler plate and they have two. The other says 27-29 both in the boiler plate describing the poll and the title.

The Mason-Dixon Minnesota Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from October 27 through October 29, 2004. A total of 625 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.

[Raycpa]

There are two sets of dates. My guess is the second date range was left from previous version and an error from a copy paste.

[StJacques]

". . . Does that make any sense?"

Yes it does Illinois Rep and I saw a recent discussion on O'Reilly a couple of weeks back when John Kasich was sitting in for Bill when one of the guests with Newsweek or Time magazine - I forget which - pointed out some of the exact same things you just did. He stated "ten percent of the American people will tell you we are on the wrong track because of abortion and they will all vote for Bush."

[DirtyDawg]

Yep I have thought that for a long time. I would agree that the country is going in the wrong direction in many areas, but that isn't because of President Bush it is in spite of him. I blame the left for the wrong direction and the vicious tone.

[Ma3lst0rm]

We are going to win WV. Its very conservative and the NRA owns the state. A lot of union miners will be voting for Bush because of his support for mountaintop mining. Also West Virginia in many ways is a biblebelt state. The Democratic mind control machine has lost this state because of years of empty promises with lots of roads and no where to go. Just think someday soon (when he expires) Robert Byrd will be replaced with a Republican.

[comebacknewt]

Read the analysis story linked in post 81. It clearly states these are brand new polls!

[tirednvirginia]

Thanks, so much. This has made my evening!!!

[ShakinItUpHereBoss]

You're so very, very right! The smarmy MSM think that this means that everyone wants us to get more, um "progressive" as these aholes put it. But in so many cases, it is just that people want even more conservatim. Same with the President's approval numbers!!!

[Dan from Michigan]

If he loses Ohio and Wisconsin(keeps Florida), he can make it up with
1. Michigan(unlikely if he loses Ohio since it's a similar state, but with a larger inner city).
2. Pennsylvania
3. Any two of Minnesota, New Mexico, Iowa, or Oregon.
If he loses Florida, it's harder but still winnable.

[fortheDeclaration]

We're losing, we're losing!

Oh, wait a minute-never mind!

[PJ-Comix]

But how is Bush doing in Wyoming? I'm sweating bullets worrying over that crucial battleground state.

[commish]

Mason Dixon was by far the most accurate at state by state polling in 2002 Senate races. For them to be showing Bush up in so many states is encouraging.

More encouraging -- Bush's Favorable rating is higher than Kerry's in every state polled, and even More Important his JOB APPROVAL (remember Incumbent JA 49 or higher incumbernt Wins.

BUSH JA - AR 51, OH 50, IA 52, MO 50, NH 49, WV 52 -- Each of these states should go Bush, and he is up in each.
BUSH JA - MI 48 - BUsh trails by 2... Only bright spot Bush Favorable is Higher than Kerry, Bush could still steal Michigan
BUSH JA - OR 45 -- stick a fork in him, Kerry leads by 6
BUSH JA - PA 47 WI 48-- Same scenario as Michigan, Bush trails by 2, but same as Mich his favorable is higher than Kerry's. Same predication - could squeek it out though.

The states that don't have JA numbers -- Approval Numbers need to be looked at --
FL - Fav 51, BUsh lead 4, looks to be safe
CO - Fav 52, Bush lead 7, BUsh wins
NV - Fav 53, Bush lead 6, Bush wins
MN - Fav 46, Bush lead 1, Fab higher than Kerry, Lean Bush
NM - Fav 51, Bush lead 4, Bush Should win.

Bottom Line based on JA, FAV, Poll Numbers --
BUSH WINS - FL, AR, CO, OH, IA, MO, WV, FL, CO, NV, NM
BUSH LEAN - MN, NH
KERRY LEAN - MI, PA, WI
KERRY WINS - OR

I CAN LIVE WITH THIS!!!!

[PJ-Comix]

If we are up 8% in w va...there is no way we lose the other states unless they are..stolen from us.

All your first cousins belong to us.

[conservativepoet]

I do think one important thing comes from these numbers: Kerry's unfavorables show me he's in real trouble. Nothing has happened to improve on those numbers, in fact his constant whining may explain why Bush has pulled ahead in recent polls in Michigan, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, etc. As you suggest, these polls are dated, but they catch a period that may give us clues to Kerry's problem: Nobody likes him!

[kesg]

Jay Cost had an excellent blog entry on this topic, and others here at FR with knowledge of the Ohio operation have said the same thing. Really, this thing is like a military campaign. Advertising and polling is like an air attack (no pun intended re television ads), but end the end the battle is won or lost on the ground.

[txrangerette]

Look at Iowa.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

M-D shows Bush AHEAD in Ohio.

[ambrose]

These are brand new polls. Please see here for the accompanying write-up:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1263233/posts?page=1

[plushaye]

These are the most recent polls. For confirmation see:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6363705/

It's a brand new article from MSNBC talking about the new Mason-Dixon results including a 4 point FL lead for Bush and a 2 point OH lead.