Posted on 10/09/2004 8:54:05 AM PDT by Heff
Election 2004
Date Bush Kerry Today 49.6 45.9
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I think we've discussed this before. My numbers are purely an estimate of the raw data he uses to determine his final polling data. I realize he adjusts his numbers within the three day sample to ensure his poll number represents a consistent party demographic, but I don't care. What I am recording (and have been for over 3 months) is the rough trend of his raw data. That way you can determine which days were strong and which weren't for the two candidates. People saying Bush must have had a great day yesterday which will lead into higher numbers in the next coming days are not accurate. Bush's great day (and Kerry's bad day) was three days ago. Tomorrow it falls off. I've been doing this for three months, and have had a very good degree of success predicting the direction of the next day's number. Based on the last two days worth of ESTIMATED raw data, tomorrow should be somewhere around 49/46 B/K. There would have to be a very significant shift in both their individual numbers to push them one way or another. Bush would need 52% or greater to push him to a clean 50%. That hasn't happened for a couple weeks.
As has been true from day one, it matters less what we think than what the independents do.
Our enthusiasm is to translate to GOTV, but that enthusiasm can't create new inclinations in our direction -- it can only ensure those already so inclined get to the polls.
We may very well face a deficit in registration in key locales. GOTV is now our only defense against this and our GOTV effort . . .well, hearing Ohio GOP leaders say "our ground effort to GOTV is second to none" will not suffice. If you have a registration deficit you have to be clearly superior at GOTV. Second to none isn't good enough.
Please, please call and volunteer.
I signed up to receive the Zogby on-line poll. Haven't received one yet. Suppose it's because I said I was a republican?
Oh heavens, I didn't recognize your ID. Yes, we have been discussing Rasmussen, and your long term estimates of daily motion should improve as time passes -- which it has.
What is worrying me is Rasmussen has become a great measure of delta, but not of the registration surge. With the registration deadline passed, we have no defense against it other than some sort of hugely superior GOTV effort. An equal GOTV effort will lose if we have a registration deficit . . . in Ohio. Ohio has become decisive.
,DOUBLE-WOW!!!
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Don'tcha mean "DUBBLYA-WOW?"
: )
I actually changed the channel to MSNBC last night. It seemed like pigs were flying -- there were Matthews & co. saying Bush won decisively while the Fox panel were saying Bush did so-so and it was a tie...
I fully expect for their ratings to start slipping rapidly.
Sigh...there's a little Clinton in all of us, I guess...
There's LOTS of reason for optimism, mountaingirl!
With photo/ax
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PRICLESS! Thanks for the chuckle
(go to post # 122 if you missed it. Good for the heart!
I don't necessarily disagree with you about CA...it's probably wishful thinking hoping there is a chance for Bush. Hope springs eternal :).
Although I wonder if encouraging a GOTV for Bush in CA, on the *chance* he could win, would at least be helpful with the many propositions on the ballot...such as the attempt to repeal the mandate that employers provide insurance, which is (long story)a back door into state-run healthcare here...
I thought at the time that the arrogant assumption that Kerry's taxes would affect only himself, Bush & Gibson could come back to shoot Kerry in the foot...highly insulting, and also it made a negative inference about the American dream, suggesting no one in the room would be affected. Even if they're not making that money now, they'd like to be in the future.
Might as well count Colorado for Bush too, Kerry won't win there.
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Think you're right there - why else are the Dems trying so hard to split the EV's in Colorado
Drudge has these ratings: NBC averaged a 7.4 rating/13 share, ABC 6.0/10; CBS third at 4.9/8
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so that's 31%
Wher did the other 69% watch?
I'll be "on edge" until Kerry's concession has lasted for at least 24hrs.
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LOL - and shudder at the same time
Election 2004
Presidential Ballot
Bush 49.6% Kerry 45.9% Other 1.7% Not Sure 2.9%
Election 2004
Date Bush Kerry Today 49.6 45.9 Oct 8 48.4 46.1 Oct 7 47.8 46.7 Oct 6 47.2 46.9 Oct 5 47.9 47.0 Oct 4 48.6 46.1 Oct 3 49.0 45.4 Oct 2 48.6 45.6 Oct 1 48.7 45.3
Yeah, I don't live there so I don't know the list of referenda to be on the ballot, as well as all the other races, but in terms of the country, California activists would certainly find that their enthusiasm is better spent in Oregon or Nevada rather that in California.
With states that nearby, a quick airplane ride to man the phones or drive a van on election day is a credible scenario. There is no way there can be too many volunteers in Oregon and Nevada.
Photo AND humor courtesy of the President of the United States of America, and LEADER of the free world! :o)
True, but they can and are fraudulently infiltrating the only real poll that counts on November 2.
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