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Rasmussen - BUSH BOUNCE!
Rasmussen Reports ^ | Heff

Posted on 10/09/2004 8:54:05 AM PDT by Heff

Election 2004

Date Bush Kerry Today 49.6 45.9

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; bushbounce; kewl; lurch; napalminthemorning; poll; polls; rasmussen; seconddebate; wot
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To: Owen

I think we've discussed this before. My numbers are purely an estimate of the raw data he uses to determine his final polling data. I realize he adjusts his numbers within the three day sample to ensure his poll number represents a consistent party demographic, but I don't care. What I am recording (and have been for over 3 months) is the rough trend of his raw data. That way you can determine which days were strong and which weren't for the two candidates. People saying Bush must have had a great day yesterday which will lead into higher numbers in the next coming days are not accurate. Bush's great day (and Kerry's bad day) was three days ago. Tomorrow it falls off. I've been doing this for three months, and have had a very good degree of success predicting the direction of the next day's number. Based on the last two days worth of ESTIMATED raw data, tomorrow should be somewhere around 49/46 B/K. There would have to be a very significant shift in both their individual numbers to push them one way or another. Bush would need 52% or greater to push him to a clean 50%. That hasn't happened for a couple weeks.


241 posted on 10/09/2004 12:58:29 PM PDT by Rokke
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To: All

As has been true from day one, it matters less what we think than what the independents do.

Our enthusiasm is to translate to GOTV, but that enthusiasm can't create new inclinations in our direction -- it can only ensure those already so inclined get to the polls.

We may very well face a deficit in registration in key locales. GOTV is now our only defense against this and our GOTV effort . . .well, hearing Ohio GOP leaders say "our ground effort to GOTV is second to none" will not suffice. If you have a registration deficit you have to be clearly superior at GOTV. Second to none isn't good enough.

Please, please call and volunteer.


242 posted on 10/09/2004 1:01:00 PM PDT by Owen
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To: madison46

I signed up to receive the Zogby on-line poll. Haven't received one yet. Suppose it's because I said I was a republican?


243 posted on 10/09/2004 1:01:03 PM PDT by PROUDAMREP ( Bush-Cheney '04)
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To: Rokke

Oh heavens, I didn't recognize your ID. Yes, we have been discussing Rasmussen, and your long term estimates of daily motion should improve as time passes -- which it has.

What is worrying me is Rasmussen has become a great measure of delta, but not of the registration surge. With the registration deadline passed, we have no defense against it other than some sort of hugely superior GOTV effort. An equal GOTV effort will lose if we have a registration deficit . . . in Ohio. Ohio has become decisive.


244 posted on 10/09/2004 1:04:05 PM PDT by Owen
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To: Freepdonia

,DOUBLE-WOW!!!


............
Don'tcha mean "DUBBLYA-WOW?"

: )


245 posted on 10/09/2004 1:05:26 PM PDT by maine-iac7
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To: Southflanknorthpawsis

I actually changed the channel to MSNBC last night. It seemed like pigs were flying -- there were Matthews & co. saying Bush won decisively while the Fox panel were saying Bush did so-so and it was a tie...


246 posted on 10/09/2004 1:07:31 PM PDT by GOPrincess
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To: GOPrincess
It sure is disappointing. Losing Fox is sort of like losing an old friend, but betrayal is hard to overcome and trust has been lost.

I fully expect for their ratings to start slipping rapidly.

247 posted on 10/09/2004 1:09:39 PM PDT by Southflanknorthpawsis (FR = A pajama party 24/7)
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To: TruthWillWin
Bush bounce? That's a pleasant thought in more ways than one.

Sigh...there's a little Clinton in all of us, I guess...

248 posted on 10/09/2004 1:10:15 PM PDT by L.N. Smithee (I'm L.N. Smithee and I approved this message)
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To: ohioWfan

There's LOTS of reason for optimism, mountaingirl!

With photo/ax
...............................


PRICLESS! Thanks for the chuckle

(go to post # 122 if you missed it. Good for the heart!


249 posted on 10/09/2004 1:13:00 PM PDT by maine-iac7
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To: Owen

I don't necessarily disagree with you about CA...it's probably wishful thinking hoping there is a chance for Bush. Hope springs eternal :).

Although I wonder if encouraging a GOTV for Bush in CA, on the *chance* he could win, would at least be helpful with the many propositions on the ballot...such as the attempt to repeal the mandate that employers provide insurance, which is (long story)a back door into state-run healthcare here...


250 posted on 10/09/2004 1:13:24 PM PDT by GOPrincess
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To: ShandaLear
Kerry has peaked. It down hill for him from here.

I agree. If you look at all the polls for the last two months, it seems like it's one candidate going up or down rather than a mutual up and down.

Kery picked up some support after Bush's loss at the first debate, with Bush staying steady in his numbers, especially his internals.

I see Kerry's support as soft, based on his internals. Even when he picked up a few points, he's still awful in poll questions on leadership, unfavorability, and resoluteness.
251 posted on 10/09/2004 1:15:20 PM PDT by Conservative til I die
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To: dandiegirl

I thought at the time that the arrogant assumption that Kerry's taxes would affect only himself, Bush & Gibson could come back to shoot Kerry in the foot...highly insulting, and also it made a negative inference about the American dream, suggesting no one in the room would be affected. Even if they're not making that money now, they'd like to be in the future.


252 posted on 10/09/2004 1:15:29 PM PDT by GOPrincess
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To: eatdust11

Might as well count Colorado for Bush too, Kerry won't win there.
..............
Think you're right there - why else are the Dems trying so hard to split the EV's in Colorado


253 posted on 10/09/2004 1:20:27 PM PDT by maine-iac7
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To: newzjunkey

Drudge has these ratings: NBC averaged a 7.4 rating/13 share, ABC 6.0/10; CBS third at 4.9/8
...............
so that's 31%
Wher did the other 69% watch?


254 posted on 10/09/2004 1:22:06 PM PDT by maine-iac7
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To: newzjunkey

I'll be "on edge" until Kerry's concession has lasted for at least 24hrs.
................

LOL - and shudder at the same time


255 posted on 10/09/2004 1:22:49 PM PDT by maine-iac7
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To: Heff; Happy2BMe; PhilDragoo; Grampa Dave; Smartass; devolve; potlatch

Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 49.6%
Kerry 45.9%
Other 1.7%
Not Sure 2.9%

RasmussenReports.com

Election 2004

Date Bush Kerry
Today 49.6 45.9
Oct 8 48.4 46.1
Oct 7 47.8 46.7
Oct 6 47.2 46.9
Oct 5 47.9 47.0
Oct 4 48.6 46.1
Oct 3 49.0 45.4
Oct 2 48.6 45.6
Oct 1 48.7 45.3

256 posted on 10/09/2004 1:23:15 PM PDT by MeekOneGOP (The GOP throw their trash out. The DemocRATS worship theirs.)
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To: GOPrincess

Yeah, I don't live there so I don't know the list of referenda to be on the ballot, as well as all the other races, but in terms of the country, California activists would certainly find that their enthusiasm is better spent in Oregon or Nevada rather that in California.

With states that nearby, a quick airplane ride to man the phones or drive a van on election day is a credible scenario. There is no way there can be too many volunteers in Oregon and Nevada.


257 posted on 10/09/2004 1:26:13 PM PDT by Owen
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To: infogeekmom
the $200,000 income fiasco by Kerry and the "I have a plan" mantra..
...................Bush does good job re that over 900,000 small businessmen -who create the majority of jobs - fall into this category BUT call Kerry on that number of $200,000 = particularly when he couples it with "the millionaires!"
Ahh, I never liked math that much , but since when does $200,000 make you a millionaire? (and we know the millionaires have so many loopholes they don't pay hardly any, if any taxes anyway. Why do you think Tar-reez-szar wont release her tax records.
258 posted on 10/09/2004 1:28:04 PM PDT by maine-iac7
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To: maine-iac7

Photo AND humor courtesy of the President of the United States of America, and LEADER of the free world! :o)


259 posted on 10/09/2004 1:28:29 PM PDT by ohioWfan (BUSH 2004 - NEED SOME WOOD???)
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To: Jenya
Love it! The RATS can infiltrate the online polls all they want, but they can't mess with the real polls.

True, but they can and are fraudulently infiltrating the only real poll that counts on November 2.

260 posted on 10/09/2004 1:29:22 PM PDT by CedarDave (Going to see our President Bush in my town on Monday morning! YEE-HAW!!!)
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