Posted on 09/27/2004 11:45:04 AM PDT by Cableguy
Just talked to a senior Republican in Washington. The USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll should be out shortly - Bush up 53-42 among registered, 52-44 among likely voters.
UPDATE: This source doesn't know about the ABC/Washington Post poll that is supposed to be out later today. Overall thoughts from this GOP source: Most of non-public polls are showing Bush up five or six points. He is telling every Bush supporter who will listen not to get complacent - this lead could shrink quickly, although he is reassured that once you throw out most of the odd outliers (Bush up a lot, or Kerry up a bit) the lead has been pretty steady since the convention. Still, he adds, Bush campaign knows "to campaign like they're five points down."
That's true but remember Ross Perot took 18 or 19% and most of that would have gone to Bush 41. If it were not for Perot there never would have been a Clinton presidency.
I'll save you the trouble. In 1992 Bush 41 only got 38% of the vote. He let his guard down, never campaighned like he really wanted to win and seemed unprepared at the debates. That loss had a profound effect on our current President. You can bet the ranch that he won't make the same mistakes.
How can Zogby have the race even? He seems like a reasonable fellow although some have spotted a distinct Democrat bias. But can he skew his poll without every sampler on earth being aware of it?
Michael Moore keeps reminding people that Zogby's internet poll has them tied.
UH-OH ... the race is tightening!!!!!
(Sarcasm Off)
Great news, my fellow conservative friends! But NO COMPLACENCY - turnout like there's no tomorrow and give Bush a victory he'll remember.
It has actually been happening several times this election year. I have been puzzled too by the development.
Kerry Spot says people have been emailing him about the numbers being reversed. He says this is what he was told but to wait until the results are published.
see:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-09-17-gallup-poll.htm
The LV has been higher than RV in at least the last 2 Gallup polls.
If we get any internals, we will be able to tell if this actually suggests a shift...
What I do expect is the Dem spin...when the last poll showed a double digit lead for W, they didn't believe it...now that the lead is smaller, they will tout the previous poll as gospel and use it as evidence that Kerry is closing the gap...I hope someone will say to the first talking head that tries that: "Well, you said that poll was crap 10 days ago!!"
1992
Is anyone out there as nervous as I am about the debates ?
Besides John Kerry? No, not really.
[Dem spin]: Oh, this is just post-convention bounce that hasn't gone back down just yet.
At the Arkansas-Alabama football game this past Saturday in Fayetteville, people wearing Bush/Cheney stickers outnumbered people wearing Kerry/Whats his name? stickers by a factor of at least 10 to 1.
Zogby's MO is to post outliers that favor his candidate right up until the last poll before the election. That is the only Zogby poll you know he wants to get right. Of course, he did not fare well in 2002. Now, his internet polls are pure garbage as the participants are self-selected.
What bounces up has to come down.
During the 2000 campaign Rush Limbaugh told a story about the last months of the first Bush administration -- between his defeat in November and Clinton's inauguration in January. Rush was invited to some kind of White House function during that period, and he said the place felt like a funeral parlor. Everyone was just going through the motions, passing time until they left for good.
Everyone, that is, except George W. Bush. He acted like a kid at Christmas time, and was the only one who really seemed to be enjoying himself during those dark days. When someone pointed out that everyone except him was in such a somber mood, he said something along the following lines: "Everyone else here is either retiring, or changing careers. I'm gonna be back here soon, though."
The polls are encouraging, but what about voter fraud? Limbaugh had a great line today: Kerry's up 5% with registered dead voters.
I saw hundreds of Vols for Bush stickers at the Vol-LaTech game and the Vol-FL game the previous week. I saw no Kerry stickers. Kerry will be fortunate to break 40% in TN.
The debates are not about points and counter points, as some might want you to believe. If they were, bush would do just fine anyway. However, they are really about the likability of the candidates, which Bush will win hands-down without even trying.
One thing Zogby has now is more undecided states--nine--than some of the other polls. That could make a huge difference if he has more uncertainty while other polls have maybe 6 undecided states.
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