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EARLY PEEK AT POLL RESULTS
Kerry Spot/NRO ^ | 9/27/04 | jim geraghty

Posted on 09/27/2004 11:45:04 AM PDT by Cableguy

Just talked to a senior Republican in Washington. The USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll should be out shortly - Bush up 53-42 among registered, 52-44 among likely voters.

UPDATE: This source doesn't know about the ABC/Washington Post poll that is supposed to be out later today. Overall thoughts from this GOP source: Most of non-public polls are showing Bush up five or six points. He is telling every Bush supporter who will listen not to get complacent - this lead could shrink quickly, although he is reassured that once you throw out most of the odd outliers (Bush up a lot, or Kerry up a bit) the lead has been pretty steady since the convention. Still, he adds, Bush campaign knows "to campaign like they're five points down."


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cnn; gallup; kewl; poll; polls; usatoday
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To: WildTurkey

I find that most of the MAC crowd are snobby elitists, so he's appealing to his base.


121 posted on 09/27/2004 12:42:49 PM PDT by My2Cents (http://www.conservativesforbush.com)
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To: Cableguy
These margins, if they held up on election day, would be called a landslide or at least a mandate.

However Reuters is reporting it as "Bush Lead Narrows in CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll". Go figure.
122 posted on 09/27/2004 12:43:16 PM PDT by SOSCEO
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Comment #123 Removed by Moderator

To: kcbob

You left out "NV" - Nursing home voters


124 posted on 09/27/2004 12:44:29 PM PDT by Rutles4Ever
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To: ambrose

The change in this poll (compared with the one from two weeks ago) is well within the MOE. I would say things have stayed pretty much static. Also, this poll has a different makeup of people polled.

All in all, I am happy with where we are, and will work for another 10 points on top of what we have. I WANT TO DESTROY kerry!!!

LLS


125 posted on 09/27/2004 12:44:45 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (kerry... a girlie-man who built his life on a bedrock of lies, and derives his strength from EVIL!)
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To: mlbford2
Time for a 'Kerry Camp Shakeup'.

Who's left to "shake up"? Maybe Kerry can fire himself from the campaign and replace himself with Hillary.

126 posted on 09/27/2004 12:45:35 PM PDT by My2Cents (http://www.conservativesforbush.com)
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To: Kylie_04

No doubt democrats will do their best to cast votes one way or the other if you know what I mean. Carter already prepares grounds for new stealing attempt in Florida.


127 posted on 09/27/2004 12:45:43 PM PDT by maksim
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To: jdm
I'm going to have to do some research to find out when the last time a Presidential candidate secured less than 40% of the vote.

Probably Abe Lincoln in 1860.

128 posted on 09/27/2004 12:46:45 PM PDT by My2Cents (http://www.conservativesforbush.com)
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To: USA_Soccer
MSMs are furiously working on some spin :)

"...our latest poll shows President Bush with a slight lead over challenger John Kerry, although [insert DNC talking points here]..."

129 posted on 09/27/2004 12:47:57 PM PDT by randog (What the....?!)
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To: Rutles4Ever
DUmmies are ripping violin music in droves...

Suicide watch in DU land...
how sweet it is.

Now, euphoria is over..
get back to work..
go like we're 5 pts down!!

130 posted on 09/27/2004 12:49:07 PM PDT by evad (You cannot proceed to a correct conclusion based on a false premise.)
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To: IrishGOP

Every 2-3 weeks. Check RealClearPolitics or gallup.com


131 posted on 09/27/2004 12:51:04 PM PDT by Cableguy
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To: Minnesocold

The fact that voter fraud was caught in Ohio is encouraging. The state is now actively looking into the problem. Thus, fraud is not a shadowy danger but is out in the open. The Dems won't be able to get away with it. They got too greedy, trying to register too many dead/non-existent people. If they had kept it on a small scale, no one would have noticed. But because they are so desperate, they are abandoning their sense of proportion, to their peril.


132 posted on 09/27/2004 12:51:51 PM PDT by Cyclopean Squid (W's Will is the Force of History)
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To: Phantom Lord

Bus 41 got 38%, but Perot got 19%.

I believe Bill Clinton won the election with only 43% of the popular vote.


133 posted on 09/27/2004 12:52:19 PM PDT by joeystoy
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To: zarf
This poll is meaningless. What about the battleground states?

I just checked out the battleground state polls at realclearpolitics.com. The only such state where Kerry can feel a little comfortable is Washington, where his lead averages 5.5%, if memory serves. In all the rest Bush either leads or is within striking distance.

134 posted on 09/27/2004 12:52:35 PM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson (Ho, Ho, Ho Chi Minh/Loves John Kerry so vote him in!)
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To: RightWhale

Zogby controls for D/R party ID based on 2000 numbers. Not a good way to weight a poll. He also fudges his numbers based on the latest political wind. Remember, he said that "this race was for Kerry to lose" so he needs to come up with numbers to support his case.


135 posted on 09/27/2004 12:53:13 PM PDT by Cableguy
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To: irish_links

The biggest problem is trun out. I agree. But look at the christian vote. About 4 million of them did not vote in 2k becuase of the last minute DUI charge.

They will show up this year in DROVES. Look at what judges are doing up in Mass and the 11th circuit. Lots of folks know that the next president is going to appoint judges to the SCOTUS.


136 posted on 09/27/2004 12:56:45 PM PDT by Truth Table
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To: 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub; All
I've been registering voters and will continue to do so. A lot people are not aware they need re-register when they move a new address. People, make sure to re-register if you've moved, or if you've changed political parties, or if you've changed your name!
137 posted on 09/27/2004 12:57:44 PM PDT by tame (Are you willing to do for the truth what leftists are willing to do for a lie?)
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To: Cableguy

is Gallup still over sampling republicans?


138 posted on 09/27/2004 12:58:18 PM PDT by jern (The only poll that this site think is accurate, is the poll with W. in the lead.)
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To: evad

Six points is still a good lead in this poll. Compare where Bush was at this point and look at the battleground states. We are doing a good job, but we must really put the peddle to the metal at this point to ensure victory.


139 posted on 09/27/2004 12:59:34 PM PDT by chris1 ("Make the other guy die for his country" - George S. Patton Jr.)
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To: Cableguy; Salvation; redlipstick; texasflower; seamole; Doctor Stochastic; MegaSilver; BlueAngel; ..

Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.


140 posted on 09/27/2004 1:01:15 PM PDT by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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