Posted on 09/27/2004 11:45:04 AM PDT by Cableguy
Just talked to a senior Republican in Washington. The USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll should be out shortly - Bush up 53-42 among registered, 52-44 among likely voters.
UPDATE: This source doesn't know about the ABC/Washington Post poll that is supposed to be out later today. Overall thoughts from this GOP source: Most of non-public polls are showing Bush up five or six points. He is telling every Bush supporter who will listen not to get complacent - this lead could shrink quickly, although he is reassured that once you throw out most of the odd outliers (Bush up a lot, or Kerry up a bit) the lead has been pretty steady since the convention. Still, he adds, Bush campaign knows "to campaign like they're five points down."
I find that most of the MAC crowd are snobby elitists, so he's appealing to his base.
You left out "NV" - Nursing home voters
The change in this poll (compared with the one from two weeks ago) is well within the MOE. I would say things have stayed pretty much static. Also, this poll has a different makeup of people polled.
All in all, I am happy with where we are, and will work for another 10 points on top of what we have. I WANT TO DESTROY kerry!!!
LLS
Who's left to "shake up"? Maybe Kerry can fire himself from the campaign and replace himself with Hillary.
No doubt democrats will do their best to cast votes one way or the other if you know what I mean. Carter already prepares grounds for new stealing attempt in Florida.
Probably Abe Lincoln in 1860.
"...our latest poll shows President Bush with a slight lead over challenger John Kerry, although [insert DNC talking points here]..."
Suicide watch in DU land...
how sweet it is.
Now, euphoria is over..
get back to work..
go like we're 5 pts down!!
Every 2-3 weeks. Check RealClearPolitics or gallup.com
The fact that voter fraud was caught in Ohio is encouraging. The state is now actively looking into the problem. Thus, fraud is not a shadowy danger but is out in the open. The Dems won't be able to get away with it. They got too greedy, trying to register too many dead/non-existent people. If they had kept it on a small scale, no one would have noticed. But because they are so desperate, they are abandoning their sense of proportion, to their peril.
Bus 41 got 38%, but Perot got 19%.
I believe Bill Clinton won the election with only 43% of the popular vote.
I just checked out the battleground state polls at realclearpolitics.com. The only such state where Kerry can feel a little comfortable is Washington, where his lead averages 5.5%, if memory serves. In all the rest Bush either leads or is within striking distance.
Zogby controls for D/R party ID based on 2000 numbers. Not a good way to weight a poll. He also fudges his numbers based on the latest political wind. Remember, he said that "this race was for Kerry to lose" so he needs to come up with numbers to support his case.
The biggest problem is trun out. I agree. But look at the christian vote. About 4 million of them did not vote in 2k becuase of the last minute DUI charge.
They will show up this year in DROVES. Look at what judges are doing up in Mass and the 11th circuit. Lots of folks know that the next president is going to appoint judges to the SCOTUS.
is Gallup still over sampling republicans?
Six points is still a good lead in this poll. Compare where Bush was at this point and look at the battleground states. We are doing a good job, but we must really put the peddle to the metal at this point to ensure victory.
Gallup Ping
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