[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Before anyone flips out.. It's ARG.. Take Bush's totals, add 3-5 points, take Kerry's totals, minus 3-5 from them and go from there. They lean left.

[WOSG]

ARRRRGGGGGGGGG !!!!

Okay, I think it's polloganda, but I'll *act* like its true ...

work like the dickens to HELP BUSH WIN.

[Bogey78O]

One of those "interactive" polls the Dems have been juicing?

[flashbunny]

bush and kerry are not tied in wisconsin or west virgina

This poll is crap.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Here's a version where the links work...

How close is the race for president?

• George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
• Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.
• Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
• Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.
• Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
• Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.
• Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
• Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.
• Among men nationwide, 51% say they would vote for Bush and 42% say they would vote for Kerry.
• Among women nationwide, 42% say they would vote for Bush and 50% say they would vote for Kerry.
  

	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	DK	Sep
US (weighted)	47%	46%	1%	1%	5%	7-21
State:
Alabama	54%	40%	1%	0%	4%	13-16
Alaska	57%	30%	5%	3%	5%	9-11
Arizona	49%	43%	*	1%	6%	11-14
Arkansas	48%	45%	2%	0%	5%	15-17
California	41%	52%	*	1%	6%	11-13
Colorado	46%	45%	3%	1%	6%	10-13
Connecticut	39%	54%	1%	1%	5%	12-14
Delaware	41%	50%	2%	1%	6%	13-15
DC	11%	78%	6%	1%	4%	11-13
Florida	45%	46%	2%	1%	6%	17-20
Georgia	53%	42%	*	1%	4%	11-13
Hawaii	41%	51%	4%	0%	4%	7-11
Idaho	59%	30%	3%	1%	7%	8-10
Illinois	43%	49%	2%	1%	5%	13-16
Indiana	54%	39%	*	1%	6%	16-20
Iowa	48%	46%	1%	1%	5%	12-14
Kansas	57%	35%	2%	1%	6%	15-18
Kentucky	57%	39%	1%	0%	4%	8-12
Louisiana	50%	42%	1%	1%	6%	17-21
Maine	44%	48%	4%	0%	5%	8-10
Maryland	43%	52%	2%	0%	3%	7-9
Massachusetts	27%	64%	*	1%	7%	10-13
Michigan	40%	48%	1%	1%	9%	17-21
Minnesota	45%	47%	2%	1%	5%	10-12
Mississippi	51%	42%	1%	1%	5%	14-17
Missouri	50%	44%	*	1%	5%	16-19
Montana	60%	32%	3%	0%	5%	7-9
Nebraska	61%	30%	2%	1%	6%	9-12
Nevada	47%	45%	1%	1%	6%	12-14
New Hampshire	47%	45%	1%	1%	7%	15-17
New Jersey	42%	50%	1%	1%	6%	13-16
New Mexico	44%	49%	1%	0%	6%	14-16
New York	40%	52%	1%	2%	4%	14-16
North Carolina	49%	44%	*	1%	6%	13-16
North Dakota	62%	33%	1%	0%	4%	7-10
Ohio	48%	46%	1%	1%	5%	17-20
Oklahoma	55%	38%	*	1%	6%	15-20
Oregon	45%	47%	2%	1%	5%	10-13
Pennsylvania	46%	47%	1%	1%	5%	15-19
Rhode Island	30%	58%	4%	1%	6%	11-13
South Carolina	52%	40%	1%	1%	7%	14-16
South Dakota	58%	39%	1%	1%	2%	8-12
Tennessee	50%	43%	1%	1%	5%	16-18
Texas	58%	36%	1%	1%	5%	16-20
Utah	64%	27%	4%	1%	5%	10-13
Vermont	40%	50%	4%	0%	7%	9-12
Virginia	49%	43%	*	1%	7%	12-14
Washington	44%	51%	2%	0%	3%	9-13
West Virginia	46%	46%	2%	1%	6%	14-16
Wisconsin	46%	46%	1%	1%	6%	12-15
Wyoming	65%	29%	2%	0%	3%	9-11
600 completed telephone interviews among likely voters in each state and DC on dates in September (Sep). MOE ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time. Row totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

[finnman69]

ARG is full of crap, no way Ohio is only a 2 point race.

[Nonstatist]

The big one in this poll is Florida. A Must Win for Bush

[Ruth A.]

I just don't believe polls anymore.

[Spackidagoosh]

These are the same people that had Schwarzenegger in CA having no chance to win last year.

[ZULU]

SEE http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Weighted averages of all polls show Bush well ahead.

[eyespysomething]

yep, Bush up by only 11 in GA? What, were they polling Atlanta?

[The_Victor]

Actually, the results are not far from other polls. The real difference is that ARG has Penn and Fla going for Kerry each by 1%. That represents a 48 EC point turnaround for Kerry. BFD, there's only one poll that counts.

[rang1995]

i have seen other polls today showing a big jump for kerry--not good--but they were based on rassmusan-and zogby

[papasmurf]

rasmussen...


Election 2004

National Political Tracking Data

Updated daily by Noon Eastern

Last Update Wednesday

Click on Topic for Details

Presidential Tracking Bush 49 Kerry 45
Congress Dem 43 GOP 41
President Bush Job Approval 53
Electoral College Bush 213 - Kerry 204
Updated Weekly
Bush Favorable 52 Unfavorable 47
Kerry Favorable 50 Unfavorable 48
Battleground States Bush 47 Kerry 47
Right Track? Right 42 Wrong 54
Who is a Better Leader? Bush 50 Kerry 37
Trust on Nat'l Defense? Bush 53 Kerry 41
Trust to Manage Economy? Bush 50 Kerry 45
Winning the War on Terror US 47 Terrorists 30
How is Bush handling Iraq Ex/Good 45 Poor 42
How is Bush handling Econ Ex/Good 43 Poor 41

---

Electoral College:

Bush 213 Kerry 204

The latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows George W. Bush with 213 Electoral Votes and John Kerry with 204. There are ten states with 121 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.

Generally speaking, any state where the candidate leads by less than five points is considered a Toss-Up.

* Bush has a lead from one to four points in six Toss-Up states with 72 Electoral Votes.

* Kerry has a lead from one to four points in two Toss-Up states with 17 Electoral Vote. More...

Ohio: Bush 48% Kerry 45%

45% Say Mission in Iraq Will Be Judged a Success

Colorado Senate: Coors 49% Salazar 48%

SD Senate: Thune 50% Daschle 47%

[TomEwall]

From 2000:

1) KY Gore +6 (Bush won by 16)
2) LA Gore +7 (Bush won by 8)
3) WV Gore +8 (Bush won by 6)
4) TN Gore +6 (Bush won by 4)

---

ARG is about 5 points favoreable for Kerry on the average. If you add 5 points to Bush, the results should be reasonable.

[rang1995]

a big drop here
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
if you run the mouse over each state you will see what poll it's using

[IDontLikeToPayTaxes]

Check this too:

http://electoral-vote.com/

[CzarNicky]

Can we get a real polling firm to do a real poll.

[the Real fifi]

Fiddled--UPDATE: Kerry Spot reader Matthew points out, "If you click on each state of this poll individually, you will see how distorted the polls are. For example, look at Illinois. The sampling is 29% Republicans, and 42% Democrats. And Bush only trails by 6? Same with PA. 42% are Republicans and 48% are Democrats. The poll also is weighted more towards women than men."

Yup, as I look over this, I see Florida is 55 percent women, 45 percent men. Ohio, 54 percent women, 46 percent men.

Also Kerry Spot reader Michael notes that this ARG poll has essentially the same results as the ARG poll completed 9/1, a 47-47 tie.

NRO Kerry Spot

[skaterboy]

Take a look at Maine,New York,Illinois

These are biased but they seem to validate SUSA

Bush up only 9 in MS?

FOOL PLEASE

[N. Theknow]

If you want to know who is winning just look at where they are campaigning. Kerry is now campaigning in what were once safe states. Bush is campaigning in states that have come into play.

BTW - Kerry this week was in Massachusetts, New York and Florida.