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How close is the race for president? |
- George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
- Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.
- Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
- Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.
- Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
- Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.
- Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
- Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.
- Among men nationwide, 51% say they would vote for Bush and 42% say they would vote for Kerry.
- Among women nationwide, 42% say they would vote for Bush and 50% say they would vote for Kerry.
| Bush | Kerry | Nader | Other | DK | Sep | |
| US (weighted) | 47% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 7-21 |
| State: | ||||||
| Alabama | 54% | 40% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 13-16 |
| Alaska | 57% | 30% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 9-11 |
| Arizona | 49% | 43% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-14 |
| Arkansas | 48% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 15-17 |
| California | 41% | 52% | * | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| Colorado | 46% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 10-13 |
| Connecticut | 39% | 54% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Delaware | 41% | 50% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 13-15 |
| DC | 11% | 78% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Florida | 45% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 17-20 |
| Georgia | 53% | 42% | * | 1% | 4% | 11-13 |
| Hawaii | 41% | 51% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 7-11 |
| Idaho | 59% | 30% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 8-10 |
| Illinois | 43% | 49% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 13-16 |
| Indiana | 54% | 39% | * | 1% | 6% | 16-20 |
| Iowa | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 12-14 |
| Kansas | 57% | 35% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 15-18 |
| Kentucky | 57% | 39% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 8-12 |
| Louisiana | 50% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 17-21 |
| Maine | 44% | 48% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 8-10 |
| Maryland | 43% | 52% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 7-9 |
| Massachusetts | 27% | 64% | * | 1% | 7% | 10-13 |
| Michigan | 40% | 48% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 17-21 |
| Minnesota | 45% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-12 |
| Mississippi | 51% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 14-17 |
| Missouri | 50% | 44% | * | 1% | 5% | 16-19 |
| Montana | 60% | 32% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 7-9 |
| Nebraska | 61% | 30% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 9-12 |
| Nevada | 47% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-14 |
| New Hampshire | 47% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 15-17 |
| New Jersey | 42% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| New Mexico | 44% | 49% | 1% | 0% | 6% | 14-16 |
| New York | 40% | 52% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 14-16 |
| North Carolina | 49% | 44% | * | 1% | 6% | 13-16 |
| North Dakota | 62% | 33% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 7-10 |
| Ohio | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 17-20 |
| Oklahoma | 55% | 38% | * | 1% | 6% | 15-20 |
| Oregon | 45% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Pennsylvania | 46% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 15-19 |
| Rhode Island | 30% | 58% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 11-13 |
| South Carolina | 52% | 40% | 1% | 1% | 7% | 14-16 |
| South Dakota | 58% | 39% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 8-12 |
| Tennessee | 50% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-18 |
| Texas | 58% | 36% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 16-20 |
| Utah | 64% | 27% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 10-13 |
| Vermont | 40% | 50% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 9-12 |
| Virginia | 49% | 43% | * | 1% | 7% | 12-14 |
| Washington | 44% | 51% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-13 |
| West Virginia | 46% | 46% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 14-16 |
| Wisconsin | 46% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 12-15 |
| Wyoming | 65% | 29% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 9-11 |
| 600 completed telephone interviews among likely voters in each state and DC on dates in September (Sep). MOE ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time. Row totals may not equal 100% due to rounding. |
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