Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

---

Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[gopwinsin04]

I think the New Orleans TV station is massively underplaying this story on the whole, maybe they are trying to not to start panic..

[BurbankKarl]

Boaters ignore warnings
A spokesman for the New Orleans office of the U.S. Coast Guard said Wednesday that officials there had received reports of recreational boaters still operating on Lake Pontchartrain, despite repeated warnings of the dangers of high winds connected with Hurricane Ivan.

Lt. Rob Wyman said the 8th District Coast Guard office has moved personnel, boats and aircraft out of harm’s way until after the storm passes.

[gopwinsin04]

Why arent the New Orleans TV folks seeing what we are seeing?

[rwfromkansas]

Clear and obvious strengthening as it goes over the warm water eddy. This will def be cat 3 at landfall......LIKELY cat 4.

The NHC says there will be increasing shear just prior to landfall to weaken it a tad, but the shear maps I have looked at show no such evidence....NHC wishful thinking.

[TheLion]

That's good lainie..."himmicanes"...that's better than the joke!

Why are hurricanes named after women?

Because they arrive all wet and wild and when they
leave they take your house and your car.

[BureaucratusMaximus]

A spokesman for the New Orleans office of the U.S. Coast Guard said Wednesday that officials there had received reports of recreational boaters still operating on Lake Pontchartrain, despite repeated warnings of the dangers of high winds connected with Hurricane Ivan.

Maroons. I mean, talk about Darwin Award material. (sigh)

[nwctwx]

[Gabz]

This is almost like seeing a child across the street running into traffic, and you are powerless to stop the oncoming truck.

You don't know how your analogy hit me. Sort of like me asking that Jeanne would take a turn north and stay the heck away from Florida, even if it meant I would be in it's line.

[Types_with_Fist]

Why arent the New Orleans TV folks seeing what we are seeing?

Because they've been told repeatedly "Florida, Florida, Mobile, Mobile!"

[rwfromkansas]

An excerpt falls under fair use. You aren't violating anything.

[brothers4thID]

Yikes. Train tracking all the way across the tropics.

[WFTR]

As of noon on 9/15, I-10 at mile marker 175 (around Prairieville/Geismar/Gonzales) is completely clear going westbound. I don't know whether that means that there has been an accident east of here blocking traffic or whether everyone who has evacuated is already further west. I noticed a few vehicles going eastbound. They probably represent local traffic to the plants.

I'm waiting for the one o'clock position report, but I don't think Louisiana will be hit particularly hard this time.

Bill

[No Blue States]

The eye seems better defined. In past days the Red has made a couple loop around the eye when Ivan was a 5. Its good to not see that yet.

Looks like he is shedding a big blob of energy toward the FL panhandle.

[BurbankKarl]

they are talking with one station who says high tide is 0003 Thursday tonight.

[rwfromkansas]

Where is the phantom shear the NHC is hoping to weaken Ivan just prior to landfall? According to the shear map I saw last evening, there was virtually none in his path, even right on the coast. It only increased over land.

[Gabz]

Good luck, Sir.

Godspeed.

[gopwinsin04]

Its heading straight for Hattiesburg, not east..

[TheLion]

KTS to MPH 5 Knots = 5.8 MPH
10 Knots = 11.5 MPH
15 Knots = 17.3 MPH
20 Knots = 23.0 MPH
25 Knots = 28.8 MPH
30 Knots = 34.6 MPH
35 Knots = 40.3 MPH
40 Knots = 46.1 MPH
45 Knots = 51.8 MPH
50 Knots = 57.6 MPH
55 Knots = 63.4 MPH
60 Knots = 69.1 MPH
65 Knots = 74.9 MPH
70 Knots = 80.6 MPH
75 Knots = 86.4 MPH
80 Knots = 92.2 MPH
85 Knots = 97.9 MPH
90 Knots = 103.7 MPH
95 Knots = 109.4 MPH
100 Knots = 115.2 MPH
105 Knots = 121.0 MPH
110 Knots = 126.7 MPH
115 Knots = 132.5 MPH
120 Knots = 138.2 MPH
125 Knots = 144.0 MPH
130 Knots = 149.8 MPH
135 Knots = 155.5 MPH
140 Knots = 161.3 MPH
145 Knots = 167.0 MPH
150 Knots = 172.8 MPH

[BurbankKarl]

53A being read

Ivan continues northward toward Gulf Coast...

Rush to complete preparations...

1pm CDT Center at lat 28.8 north , 88.2 degress west

170 miles sw alabama coast line,

moving north at 14 mph

expected to hit coast at very early hours thursday morning

continues as Cat 4, max sustained winds of 135 with higher gusts

[BurbankKarl]

station in La. reporting winds of 59


939 mb, 27.7 inches measure in last hour