[rwfromkansas]

Where is the phantom shear the NHC is hoping to weaken Ivan just prior to landfall? According to the shear map I saw last evening, there was virtually none in his path, even right on the coast. It only increased over land.

[Dog Gone]

It's pretty clear that Ivan is going to return to Cat 4 this afternoon. Hopefully no higher than that. As it approaches shore it will have less volumes of hot water to draw on, but that's the only I'm seeing that could weaken him slightly before landfall.