Posted on 09/14/2004 10:41:58 PM PDT by lainie
If my back were against the wall, I'd give it slightly better odds of Pensacola landfall than Mobile landfall. The difference is almost trivial, but now that the northeastward turn has begun I think it will end up just a bit over rightward from due north of its current position.
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 54
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 15, 2004
satellite imagery this afternoon shows an expansion of cold eyewall
convection...especially on the west side...and a clearing out of
the eye. The Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reported an
central pressure of 933 mb...and the NOAA aircraft reported peak
winds at 7000 ft of 132 kt. Underneath that flight-level wind the
stepped frequency microwave radiometer reported 108 kt. It appears
that Ivan is beginning to respond to the warm pool over which it
has been traversing today. The maximum winds have not yet increased
but may do so over the next few hours. However...slightly cooler
waters exist just offshore...and little net change in strength is
expected prior to landfall.
Ivan remains basically on track...with an initial motion estimated
at 355/12. There has been essentially no change to the track
forecast...with landfall expected in about 9 hours. However...Ivan
has a very large windfield and damaging winds will move onshore
much sooner than that. The ECMWF model finally gave up on a New
Orleans landfall today...resulting in a well-clustered guidance
envelope until well after landfall...where there are a variety of
possible solutions for the remnants of Ivan. The official forecast
continues to show the possibility of a major flooding event over
the southern Appalachians late in the forecast period.
The large circulation of Ivan can be expected to bring hurricane
force winds well inland...perhaps 150 miles or so.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 15/2100z 28.4n 88.3w 115 kt
12hr VT 16/0600z 30.2n 88.3w 115 kt...on the coastline
24hr VT 16/1800z 32.2n 88.0w 65 kt...inland
36hr VT 17/0600z 33.8n 87.2w 35 kt...inland
48hr VT 17/1800z 35.0n 86.0w 25 kt...inland
72hr VT 18/1800z 36.0n 84.0w 20 kt...inland
96hr VT 19/1800z 36.0n 84.0w 20 kt...dissipating
120hr VT 20/1800z...dissipated
$$
You should be glad you're in those mountains and not here in the southern Appalachians. Ivan's probably gonna get stuck up here and dump 20inches of rain on us, and we're still waterlogged from Frances!
Beats being in Mobile, though..
Just reported on Hurricane.net --Tornado on the ground - back beach Rd. Panama City, FLA!!
I ironically, have 3 and half pounds of fresh "gulf" shrimp in shell, that I am going to steam in some Zatarains Shrimp and Crab boil, later....plenty of cocktail sauce for dipping, beer a chillin'
Oh man...I've got a very good friend that lives right off of back beach road.
With an 18-foot storm surge, about 3/4 of Mobile will be underwater.
Boil them shrimps in some beer.
I would be scared if I was you. I was in Opal in north Georgia and lost some trees in my yard, along with a few sections of the barn roof. I was alone and it was my first (and only) experience with a hurricane. I hope you keep power but if you don't, remember that you're not alone! We will all be here thinking about you!
You are a cruel, cruel human being!
Zatarains is the best! I buy it in the bottle!
Hurricane force winds as much as 150 miles inland... WOW!
No such thing as a bad day at the beachNo such thing as a bad day at the beachNo such thing as a bad day at the beachNo such thing as a bad day at the beachNo such thing as a bad day at the beachNo such thing as a bad day at the beachNo such thing as a bad day at the beachNo such thing as a bad day at the beach.
I agree!
Are you taking 13 to 113 to 50 t get there or home? If so, I'm only 2 miles from 13. I'm also only an hour from OC!!!
I will be out for a while, just got word that Sam's just got a truckload of the one thing I am lacking --Flashlight Batteries!
I hope there are no traffic jams.
I get rained on every other day almost but thats the way it is here. These last two summers have been better. I really feel bad for those people down in the flat lands of SE America right now.
Mobile should be in the red very shortly. Plaquemines Parish in Louisiana is near the center of the storm. I hope our beloved Southwest Pass makes it through.
Thank-you! We are still babies to some of you though!
If it wasn't for the Lord in our lives, no telling where we would be!
We just got back from the grocery store. They are out of everything.
From looking at the radar, things have gotten worse since I left a while ago.
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