Posted on 09/01/2004 3:15:34 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne
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Free Republic Community:
Welcome to Wednesday's Hurricane Frances news-twist !
It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North along the Coast Highway ...
Excellent Hurricane Frances Websites:
HURRICANE ALLEY
U.S. Weather Observers
Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.
General George S. Patton Jr. Website
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Unnn this Saturday?!?!?! Are you NUTS?!?!
Well, if we're still here, come on down to Homestead, you will not recognize the place anymore!!!!! 30,000 new homes being built over 5 years, it's about 40% complete, we're getting a mall with a Burdines etc, charter schools and a movie theatre again. We actually have traffic jams in downtown now, right around City Hall. (8th and Rt. 1) Still a nice place though!!!
Always tons of things to do in Miami and the Keys - a lot is closing down Friday because of the storm. Hope your vacation is a great and safe one, if you still decide to come on down!!!!
I don't think it's going that far north. Latest movement has more of a westward motion - right at Miami. It's going to have to start turning north very soon if that central Florida track is to hold up.
We went looking for a generator this evening, went to 4 stores, all sold out.
What do you need a generator for?
But we are getting closer to the time when Frances arrives on the US coastline. Again, without getting into personal hysterics that seem to accompany major weather events every time someone posts to a weather topic forum, let us look objectively at what could influence the path and strength of Hurricane Frances. To its north and east is a moderately strong subtropical high. North and west of Frances is a diffuse frontal structure and elongated 500MB weakness. Farther west, over the lower Mississippi Valley and Ouachita Plateau is another weak 500MB depression. Future "players" are the 1026MB anticyclone moving into the Northeast (which in time will supplant the heat ridge east of Bermuda), and a very potent trough complex edging out of the Pacific Northwest.
The giant Frances continues to slowly gain latitude with a WNW heading. Frances seems to be eroding the heat ridge somewhat, as evidenced by the expansion of the cloud shield and convective array. Note that the eye missed Grand Turk by about 25-50 miles to the east, when my listed path in WEATHERAmerica this morning had the center very close to a direct hit of that island. Decay of the anticyclone and the nearing of south to southwest flow associated with the aforementioned weakness (stretching from Gulf of Mexico to NC) will continue the slight, almost seamless recurvature to a 295/300 deg heading tomorrow, with some slowing of the hurricane. The bathwater SSTs and still generally favorable vertical shear environment favor either maintenance of the gyre or even some strengthening through the following 48 hours.
On my projected path outline, Frances merely rims the Bahamas, touching only the eastern fringe of the Commonwealth while pulling close (to the right of) the Space Coast of FL. As one minor windfield disperses, the next will arrive, kicked eastward by the advancing trough complex from the western states, which should be entering the High Plains on Friday. At the same time, the cP ridge passing off the New England coastline will be setting up a pressure gradient between itself and the hurricane, which will imply some steering influence. Taken against a northerly trajectory implied by the slight lowering of 500MB heights across Dixie, and the westerly push supplied by the cool anticyclone far to its north, Frances shoots northwest into SE GA, probably with initial landfall at St. Catherine's Island as a strong Category 4 (145/155 mph winds at core) around Saturday night. Savannah GA (and to some extent Brunswick GA just left of the eye), Augusta GA, as well as the entire upstate of SC and the Savannah and Ogeechee Valleys (SE GA) will be devastated by Frances the same way Hugo took apart Charleston, Columbia, and Charlotte.
The longer term picture surrounding Frances is becoming a little more clear. I am following the general idea put forth by the GGEM and GFS schemes, which show merger of the Frances circulation with the oncoming trough complex on Sunday and Monday. The Canadian model shows a more rightward path through the Piedmont and Atlantic Coastal Plain. Given recent trends with tropical cyclones, this idea may emerge as the correct one. For now I have a path along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains, which could be a debacle for the communities dotting the Great Smokies and Blue Ridge. Heavy rainfall looks to be a problem early next week until Frances begins to accelerate toward Interior NY and New England.
The attachment shows my chart for Frances track outlines. Again, I have to emphasize that whoever's scenario for the hurricane path verifies, the key issue is the DAMAGE potential with the storm. As of now, the cone is narrowed to Fort Lauderdale FL to Charleston SC, and that is still a LOT of room for error.
Best Regards,
Larry Cosgrove
A strike in the Carolinas wouldn't come before early next week, probably Tuesday at the earliest. Forecasters do look at historical information in making their predictions but it has to be compared in depth to existing weather patterns during previous storms. It's far more complicated than comparing the current storm to past storms on the same general track. Hurricanes react predictably to the systems that impact them. The hard part is forecasting what systems will impact them and when.
Jacksonville and Georgia don't get many direct hits because of the geography and the Bermuda high pressure ridge which generally blocks their approach during this time of the year. But the ridge can be pushed around to some degree by troughs and other weather systems, and it is very difficult to determine their precise impacts in advance.
Those models bring Frances in between Melbourne and West Palm Beach... that's exactly where the Hurricane Center has now moved the target area.
Figure on a strike in that area near HIGH TIDE Saturday morning -- Noon Saturday -- Melbourne has a high tide around 11:20am.
If that is the case, what do you do you think will happen around the Broward County/Palm Beach line. That is where I am at.
We spent 4 hours getting wood this evening. Where are you at? If you're close enough the Home Depot in Cutler Ridge, off of Marlin Drive, will be opening tomorrow morning at 6am fully stocked with wood.
Cause I'd like to have power for a few days for things like the fridge, freezer, a fan in 90 degree weather....small things like that...
For reference: It is 180 miles from Melbourne to Miami.
My parents live in Jax and I spent the entire week with them last week. My mom and I are addicted BIG TIME! We both broke our records on Sunday but the teeth we found were very tiny.
MKM
Viagra works nicely.
Thanks, but I'm in Tamarac. The further north, the worse it is. Some Home Depots were actually shifting stock to more northern stores.
That may end up being a mistake.
Who is Larry Cosgrove and when did he post that?
Thanks.
I went through Andrew. Because of that, I wasn't to scared of this thing before but now it is starting to scare the crap out of me.
I called my BEST friend from high school and college days tonight, who is in West Palm. Told him to LEAVE. He was around during Andrew in 1992 but it was actually too far to the south to bother him at the time too very much. Says since he is now a homeowner, he will stay to ride it out, but if he were a renter "he would have left".
I endured a category 1 at one time, and told him how terrifying that was. This is a cat 4 or 5. Not swayed. Then I told him what it would be like if he tried to leave too late, getting into flooded roads and stalled traffic. Not swayed. Then I told him what he should know already from the West Coast of Fla last month, that it is not much fun to have one's power out for days on end. Still insistent he will be staying to 'protect' his property. (As if he can do anything....) I asked him to watch the weather station again when he gets up tomorrow and to make his decision about leaving no later than noon. He hung up the phone with the words, as he always does when we end our conversations, with the words, 'I love you; thanks for calling' (Totally haunting...)
I called my BEST friend from high school and college days tonight, who is in West Palm. Told him to LEAVE. He was around during Andrew in 1992 but it was actually too far to the south to bother him at the time too very much. Says since he is now a homeowner, he will stay to ride it out, but if he were a renter "he would have left".
I endured a category 1 at one time, and told him how terrifying that was. This is a cat 4 or 5. Not swayed. Then I told him what it would be like if he tried to leave too late, getting into flooded roads and stalled traffic. Not swayed. Then I told him what he should know already from the West Coast of Fla last month, that it is not much fun to have one's power out for days on end. Still insistent he will be staying to 'protect' his property. (As if he can do anything....) I asked him to watch the weather station again when he gets up tomorrow and to make his decision about leaving no later than noon. He hung up the phone with the words, as he always does when we end our conversations, with the words, 'I love you; thanks for calling' (Totally haunting...)
Where were you during Andrew?
My parents are in Coral Springs, the Home Depot on University near BJ's (sorry I don't know the cross stree, hope you know which one I mean) has plywood in.
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