Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-01 (New Thread)

Oops: that's "I'm looking...."

521 posted on 09/01/2004 7:19:55 PM PDT by alancarp (Boycott France and anything that even LOOKS French.)

Models starting to show it staying out of South Florida.

522 posted on 09/01/2004 7:30:43 PM PDT by killjoy (Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain)

Ummmm - if you say so about the ridge. For the life of me, I can't look at that image and see a ridge at all. In fact, if you would point me to a very clear map showing this "ridge" I would be grateful. My ignorance - sorry.

523 posted on 09/01/2004 7:33:41 PM PDT by Freedom'sWorthIt

You were right, they are the 11pm coords. Local news in Miami just announced a hurricane watch from Flagler Beach to Florida City...basicly the entire state!

524 posted on 09/01/2004 7:42:18 PM PDT by twin2

Thanks for that tip - yes will listen about the speed. In looking at the storm tracker referenced above (wraltv Hurricane section storm tracker), so many storms did erratic things - some reversing course totally - some just sitting and spinning for a long while before deciding where to go.

So from all the "diversity" in predictions - maybe some erratic movement is coming. How nervewracking this can be!

(Think will just go back to listening to the steady voice of VP Cheney.....adults are in charge - thank God! May they stay in charge!)

525 posted on 09/01/2004 7:42:49 PM PDT by Freedom'sWorthIt

WEDNESDAY EVENING MODEL ROUND-UP:

ETA - The ridge is maintained strongly. As a result, ETA takes Frances into Miami Friday night around midnight. Crosses to Ft. Myers or Sarasota.

GFDL - believes the ridge's SW corner extends only to SCarolina. That allows Frances to lift up to the north. Closest approach to Florida is 78.5W at Melbourne (which is 80.5 -- 120 miles away). That happens after noon Saturday. Moves north from there and hits Charleston (Hugo Scenario) at midnight Monday night.

European - can'r decide, but keeps ridge pretty strong. Strike looks like Titusville area (or maybe Melbourne to JAX) on Sunday morning.

UKMET - maintains ridge similarly to Euro all the way to Alabama and brings Frances in at Melbourne Friday evening, then crosses to Tampa.

NOGAPS - Ridge is stronger than UKMET, not as extensive as ETA. As a result, it's landing her in between: West Palm Beach. Looks like Friday morning at 2am (faster approach). Crosses to Tampa.

So.... it all depends on the strength of the ridge and whose model projects that most accurately.

526 posted on 09/01/2004 7:43:15 PM PDT by alancarp (Boycott France and anything that even LOOKS French.)

The 20000 block of Leadwell, Winnetka; darned near epicenter, myself.

527 posted on 09/01/2004 7:44:20 PM PDT by Old Professer (The enemy is among us; he is us; we know it, we dare not say it - someone will be offended.)

To: Freedom'sWorthIt

The High pressure areas are the 'blank spots!' Clouds have trouble forming there, though you may see a clockwise flow of ... something in these areas.

528 posted on 09/01/2004 7:44:20 PM PDT by alancarp (Boycott France and anything that even LOOKS French.)

AND LOOKING AT THE 11PM DISCUSSION FROM NHC - THE MID-TO-SOUTH FLORIDA MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRACKING THE BEST. Sorry to yell - don't want anybody to miss that.

529 posted on 09/01/2004 7:47:09 PM PDT by alancarp (Boycott France and anything that even LOOKS French.)

To: Freedom'sWorthIt

still, this one is going to be bad - as the TWC person just said, the worst possible outcome would be it skirting all the way up the coast of florida - it could wrecking all of the coastal areas on the way up. this one could be really bad.

530 posted on 09/01/2004 7:48:47 PM PDT by oceanview

To: Admin Moderator

Would you please put the longest with the most current replies and information on one of the side colums? This thread would fine ... nailbiting and getting verklempt in Florida again and it's good to see other Freeper's finds and info.

Thanks a million,

Star

531 posted on 09/01/2004 7:56:27 PM PDT by STARWISE (Keep our brave military in your prayers .. vote as if your life depended on it. It does.)

Oh, and Category 5 status is effectively being forecast over the next 24-36 hours.

532 posted on 09/01/2004 7:57:44 PM PDT by alancarp (Boycott France and anything that even LOOKS French.)

11pm Discussion is out. Sorry if somebody already posted it.. I didn't see it up there.

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 33

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 01, 2004

recon this afternoon and evening indciated the central pressure had
decreased to 939 mb. A dropsonde at 01/1904z indicated winds of 154
kt...or 177 mph...at the 850 mb level. The highest 700 mb recon
flight-level wind at 2210z was 134 kt...equal to about a 121-kt
surface wind. Based on this information...Frances is being held at
120 kt...which may be a little conservative.

The initial motion is 295/12. However...there has been considerbale
wobble in the track the past 12 hours due to the eyewall replacement
cycles that have been occurring. Frances has been moving
west-northwestward for the past 24 hours under the influence of the
subtropical ridge to the north...which is expected to remain intact
through at least 48 hours. The Gulfstream-IV jet and an afres c-130
have been releasing dropsondes around the periphery of Frances. The
sonde data has produced some interesting and disturbing results.
The height data for the various pressure levels...compared to 18z
surrounding upper-air data...appear to be at least 20 meters too
low. However...the wind data clearly indicate a mid-tropospheric
high pressure center near 30n 75w...or about 500 nmi northwest of
Frances with a ridge axis extending west-southwestward across North
Florida and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. In the short term...
this would suggest that Frances should continue moving at 295 or
even 290 degrees motion for the next 24 hours or so. Also...00z
upper-air data indicate that the 18z NOGAPS and 12z UKMET models
have verified the 00z 500 mb ridge and heights the best...while the
18z GFS and GFDL models were much too weak...at least 20 meters too
low...with the strength of the ridge. Since the 00z model runs will
have the new GPS dropsonde data included in those runs for the 06z
advisory...no significant change is being made to the previous
forecast track. However...with high pressure located to the
northwest of Frances...I would not be surprised to the 00z model
tracks shift a little more westward.
Frances is expected to move over warmer water near and within the
Bahama Islands chain in 24-48 hours. Given the already impressive
outflow pattern...some additional strengthening seems plausible.
Also...the very dry mid-level air...30-40 percent humidity...that
Frances has been traversing through and ingesting over the past 5
days is forecast to increase to more than 60 percent in 36-60hr...
which may also help with the intensification process.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/0300z 22.6n 72.0w 120 kt
12hr VT 02/1200z 23.5n 73.7w 120 kt
24hr VT 03/0000z 24.7n 75.6w 125 kt
36hr VT 03/1200z 25.8n 77.3w 125 kt
48hr VT 04/0000z 26.6n 78.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 05/0000z 28.0n 81.0w 105 kt...inland
96hr VT 06/0000z 30.0n 83.0w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 07/0000z 33.5n 85.0w 25 kt...inland

Bones

533 posted on 09/01/2004 8:01:16 PM PDT by Bones75

To: alancarp; oceanview

RUMINT -

FEMA folks are packing-up and bugging out of Orlando.

534 posted on 09/01/2004 8:02:04 PM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Not Fonda Kerry in '04 // Vets Against Kerry)

"...and even the Weather Channel are hinting that a Carolinas solution is still possible."

Wherever they send Mike Siedel, that area will be safe. He's human hurricane repellent.

Hurricane Repellent

535 posted on 09/01/2004 8:07:53 PM PDT by Right_Handed_Writer

This is starting to suck more and more for us in SoFla. Couldn't find a single piece of plywood.

Just gunna have to ride this one out I guess.

536 posted on 09/01/2004 8:07:57 PM PDT by paul544 (3D-Joy OH Boy!!!)

I've been leaning toward Miami since Monday; but these things go where they go.

537 posted on 09/01/2004 8:09:35 PM PDT by Old Professer (The enemy is among us; he is us; we know it, we dare not say it - someone will be offended.)

To: Freedom'sWorthIt

The evidence of a ridge in satellite images is characterized by the absence of clouds.

538 posted on 09/01/2004 8:12:04 PM PDT by Old Professer (The enemy is among us; he is us; we know it, we dare not say it - someone will be offended.)

539 posted on 09/01/2004 8:15:27 PM PDT by killjoy (Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain)

LOL!!! I like messing with people who come to visit us about the plant. Like when we've had a storm and there is foam all over the bay around the plant. Makes for great conversation!!!

540 posted on 09/01/2004 8:15:53 PM PDT by Brytani (A changing mind is a terrible thing to waste - Vote John Kerry)

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