ETA - The ridge is maintained strongly. As a result, ETA takes Frances into Miami Friday night around midnight. Crosses to Ft. Myers or Sarasota.
GFDL - believes the ridge's SW corner extends only to SCarolina. That allows Frances to lift up to the north. Closest approach to Florida is 78.5W at Melbourne (which is 80.5 -- 120 miles away). That happens after noon Saturday. Moves north from there and hits Charleston (Hugo Scenario) at midnight Monday night.
European - can'r decide, but keeps ridge pretty strong. Strike looks like Titusville area (or maybe Melbourne to JAX) on Sunday morning.
UKMET - maintains ridge similarly to Euro all the way to Alabama and brings Frances in at Melbourne Friday evening, then crosses to Tampa.
NOGAPS - Ridge is stronger than UKMET, not as extensive as ETA. As a result, it's landing her in between: West Palm Beach. Looks like Friday morning at 2am (faster approach). Crosses to Tampa.
So.... it all depends on the strength of the ridge and whose model projects that most accurately.