But we are getting closer to the time when Frances arrives on the US coastline. Again, without getting into personal hysterics that seem to accompany major weather events every time someone posts to a weather topic forum, let us look objectively at what could influence the path and strength of Hurricane Frances. To its north and east is a moderately strong subtropical high. North and west of Frances is a diffuse frontal structure and elongated 500MB weakness. Farther west, over the lower Mississippi Valley and Ouachita Plateau is another weak 500MB depression. Future "players" are the 1026MB anticyclone moving into the Northeast (which in time will supplant the heat ridge east of Bermuda), and a very potent trough complex edging out of the Pacific Northwest.
The giant Frances continues to slowly gain latitude with a WNW heading. Frances seems to be eroding the heat ridge somewhat, as evidenced by the expansion of the cloud shield and convective array. Note that the eye missed Grand Turk by about 25-50 miles to the east, when my listed path in WEATHERAmerica this morning had the center very close to a direct hit of that island. Decay of the anticyclone and the nearing of south to southwest flow associated with the aforementioned weakness (stretching from Gulf of Mexico to NC) will continue the slight, almost seamless recurvature to a 295/300 deg heading tomorrow, with some slowing of the hurricane. The bathwater SSTs and still generally favorable vertical shear environment favor either maintenance of the gyre or even some strengthening through the following 48 hours.
On my projected path outline, Frances merely rims the Bahamas, touching only the eastern fringe of the Commonwealth while pulling close (to the right of) the Space Coast of FL. As one minor windfield disperses, the next will arrive, kicked eastward by the advancing trough complex from the western states, which should be entering the High Plains on Friday. At the same time, the cP ridge passing off the New England coastline will be setting up a pressure gradient between itself and the hurricane, which will imply some steering influence. Taken against a northerly trajectory implied by the slight lowering of 500MB heights across Dixie, and the westerly push supplied by the cool anticyclone far to its north, Frances shoots northwest into SE GA, probably with initial landfall at St. Catherine's Island as a strong Category 4 (145/155 mph winds at core) around Saturday night. Savannah GA (and to some extent Brunswick GA just left of the eye), Augusta GA, as well as the entire upstate of SC and the Savannah and Ogeechee Valleys (SE GA) will be devastated by Frances the same way Hugo took apart Charleston, Columbia, and Charlotte.
The longer term picture surrounding Frances is becoming a little more clear. I am following the general idea put forth by the GGEM and GFS schemes, which show merger of the Frances circulation with the oncoming trough complex on Sunday and Monday. The Canadian model shows a more rightward path through the Piedmont and Atlantic Coastal Plain. Given recent trends with tropical cyclones, this idea may emerge as the correct one. For now I have a path along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains, which could be a debacle for the communities dotting the Great Smokies and Blue Ridge. Heavy rainfall looks to be a problem early next week until Frances begins to accelerate toward Interior NY and New England.
The attachment shows my chart for Frances track outlines. Again, I have to emphasize that whoever's scenario for the hurricane path verifies, the key issue is the DAMAGE potential with the storm. As of now, the cone is narrowed to Fort Lauderdale FL to Charleston SC, and that is still a LOT of room for error.
Best Regards,
Larry Cosgrove
Who is Larry Cosgrove and when did he post that?
Thanks.
With respect to Mr. Cosgrove's obvious knowledge, I strongly suspect that it was written well before the new data. His opinion agrees with the Accuweather expert, and I fully respect that. Reading that 11pm discussion page made me go "uh oh...".
Is this a discussion from late today? I believe that was the morning discussion he sends out unless he updated it. The morning one is useless now with the updated hunter plane info regarding how strong the ridge is.