Wow, you even talk like a troll.
Posted on 08/24/2004 5:39:39 PM PDT by COURAGE
The contest for the White House remains tight, according to the latest Zogby Interactive poll of likely voters in 16 battleground states. Although the map is awash in blue, with President Bush leading in only two of the battleground states, down from the three states he held three weeks ago, the results in three-quarters of the states in the survey are within the margin of error -- meaning those states remain very hotly contested. Mr. Kerry holds the top spot in 14 of the 16 polled states, up from 13 in the previous poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Looks like Zig-Zog has done some mighty "refiguring" in Tenn since his June poll showed the facts of a 'W' blowout.
If the "volunteers" wouldn't carry the State for their beloved native son, Big Buldge Al, why in the hell would they vote for a Yankee liberal that never enjoyed a hot plate of grits in his life?
The Z spinster is merely attempting to rally the Southern rat base and avoid premature suicides prior to election day.
You are a real cute poster, however, in reading your past days blogs,let me hand you a loaded pistol!
Sheesh, are you like, 8 years old or something?
Tom knows, trust me. ;)
Why do you like it...he takes potshots at everything YOU hold dear?!
Why do you like it...he takes potshots at everything YOU hold dear?!
BUSH bid 53.4 ask 53.8 last 53.8 change +1.3
KERRY bid 46.1 ask 46.8 last 46.9 change -0.6
Wow, you even talk like a troll.
wrong
For someone willing to name themselves COURAGE, you certainly show a lack thereof troll....
maybe you should change your name to Chrissy Matthews or something or maybe no balls with Chrissy Matthews....
We are domed, I tell ya, domed!
Re: Tennessee, you are exactly right. Are we really to believe there was a shift of *20* points in 2 months in TN?? I just do not accept that. Why would Kerry gain so steadily in a state that Gore couldn't even take? I think Zogby's methods must be off.
Analyst Charlie Cook says if Dems have thoughts of capturing TN and VA, they should "dream on." I think he is right. Though Cook also said he thinks Kerry will win. He's been wrong before though.
"Spell check is not my friend."
It's not about spell check errors--- it's fundamental grammar errors.
Take some time from Bush bashing and register for an Remedial writing class...you can even take one online.
Zobgy is a Democrat. He is a pro-life, anti-gay marriage Democrat, but a solid Dem nonetheless. His brother is an unabashed Democrat, and leader of the Arab American Institute (AAI) often cited in the AP and Reuters. His cultural conservatism is probably due to the influence of Islam on his life, though in almost all other things, he is left-of-center.
One needs only look at the way questions are asked and to whom in a Zogby article.
In 2000, he incorrectly called Gore a 48-46% winner. You can look up his past polling accuracy and see that he usually understates Republican turnout by about 1.5-2.5 percent in most races (third parties races excluded). He incorrectly called five races in 2002 (http://www.ncpp.org/2002SenGovPoll/2002ElectionPolls.html) posting an average error of 2.5%, thus missing almost a third of all his calls (29.4%). Missing 2% in the Bush/Gore race amounted to a 2,000,000 vote underestimation, a hefty number by my standards. Don't forget the recent House seat race in SD, which was supposer to be won by 35%.....we all know what happened there.
He is angry with Bush and is thus polling accordingly. In an election where almost every poll is back and forth, I cannot find the last time Zogby had Bush leading, or so much as above 50% in his approval rating. Most other polls have been back-and-forth and have had Bush hover both above and below the 50% approval mark. Zogby currently has every state that went for Gore polling with significant leads for Kerry, Kerry ahead in about all of the swing states (sometimes decent leads at that), and some solid Bush states now becoming battleground states. It is a clear attempt to show momentum overwhelmingly flowing to Kerry, and I do not take it as credible.
If we are to take him at his polls, we should stop talking about a close election and start concentrating on doing better than Walter Mondale -- Can Bush win Texas? I just don't buy it. If Kerry wins by five percent, loses no blue states, wins all of the swing states, and puts several red states into play, it will be both an electoral and popular vote annihilation. And let's face it, that's what his polls are showing right now if you take them at their numbers.
My sense is that the numbers are skewed, and here is my theory why (based only upon my assumptions, nothing else whatsoever): I believe that Zogby, by the nature of who he is, is overstating the Arab vote right now, and likely actively seeks to include it in every survey, even in races where it probably does not make sense. By identifying this vote (which went overwhelmingly for Bush in 2000) as disgruntled "Republicans" or "Independents" (the likely current registration statuses of these voters - let's face it, how often do people change their registration when they can vote either way anyhow), he is able to pass off a lighter Republican loyalty than other polls, and a heavier independent/moderate shift to Kerry than other polls. Hence the difference. This would naturally shift his polls in each state (especially states like MI, WI, OH, MN, & IA) a few points away from Bush, and toward John F. NotBush.
By using known disgruntled "registered Republicans," he thus is able to interview less Republicans in general when doing the poll and come out "even" in his Dem:Rep ratios. Does anyone really believe that Bush will get 5-6% less votes than last time?....Come on.
(I posted this on a now-dead board before...sorry!)
Karl rove is your mantra dude. What did he do, steal your girlfriend.
Oh believe me, I know Zogby. He's actually a distant member of my stepfamily.
No, but I can see why people are calling you a troll.
Why can't people read? This is an on-line poll for goodness sakes. The equivalent of a CNN or WorldNetDaily on-line poll. In other words worthless.
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