Wow, you even talk like a troll.
Wow, you even talk like a troll.
Zobgy is a Democrat. He is a pro-life, anti-gay marriage Democrat, but a solid Dem nonetheless. His brother is an unabashed Democrat, and leader of the Arab American Institute (AAI) often cited in the AP and Reuters. His cultural conservatism is probably due to the influence of Islam on his life, though in almost all other things, he is left-of-center.
One needs only look at the way questions are asked and to whom in a Zogby article.
In 2000, he incorrectly called Gore a 48-46% winner. You can look up his past polling accuracy and see that he usually understates Republican turnout by about 1.5-2.5 percent in most races (third parties races excluded). He incorrectly called five races in 2002 (http://www.ncpp.org/2002SenGovPoll/2002ElectionPolls.html) posting an average error of 2.5%, thus missing almost a third of all his calls (29.4%). Missing 2% in the Bush/Gore race amounted to a 2,000,000 vote underestimation, a hefty number by my standards. Don't forget the recent House seat race in SD, which was supposer to be won by 35%.....we all know what happened there.
He is angry with Bush and is thus polling accordingly. In an election where almost every poll is back and forth, I cannot find the last time Zogby had Bush leading, or so much as above 50% in his approval rating. Most other polls have been back-and-forth and have had Bush hover both above and below the 50% approval mark. Zogby currently has every state that went for Gore polling with significant leads for Kerry, Kerry ahead in about all of the swing states (sometimes decent leads at that), and some solid Bush states now becoming battleground states. It is a clear attempt to show momentum overwhelmingly flowing to Kerry, and I do not take it as credible.
If we are to take him at his polls, we should stop talking about a close election and start concentrating on doing better than Walter Mondale -- Can Bush win Texas? I just don't buy it. If Kerry wins by five percent, loses no blue states, wins all of the swing states, and puts several red states into play, it will be both an electoral and popular vote annihilation. And let's face it, that's what his polls are showing right now if you take them at their numbers.
My sense is that the numbers are skewed, and here is my theory why (based only upon my assumptions, nothing else whatsoever): I believe that Zogby, by the nature of who he is, is overstating the Arab vote right now, and likely actively seeks to include it in every survey, even in races where it probably does not make sense. By identifying this vote (which went overwhelmingly for Bush in 2000) as disgruntled "Republicans" or "Independents" (the likely current registration statuses of these voters - let's face it, how often do people change their registration when they can vote either way anyhow), he is able to pass off a lighter Republican loyalty than other polls, and a heavier independent/moderate shift to Kerry than other polls. Hence the difference. This would naturally shift his polls in each state (especially states like MI, WI, OH, MN, & IA) a few points away from Bush, and toward John F. NotBush.
By using known disgruntled "registered Republicans," he thus is able to interview less Republicans in general when doing the poll and come out "even" in his Dem:Rep ratios. Does anyone really believe that Bush will get 5-6% less votes than last time?....Come on.
(I posted this on a now-dead board before...sorry!)
Folks, none of this matters. The only activism that matters right now is GOTV. Please, please call the campaign and volunteer to register new voters in GOP neighborhoods. The electorate must be expanded and it must be expanded with GOP voters. It's the only useful way to focus energy.
[puts paper back in pocket and trudges off to next poll thread]