Posted on 08/18/2004 4:27:21 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
BRATISLAVA, Slovakia, Aug. 17 (UPI) -- Is the transition from communism over? To some analysts of the eight central and east European countries that joined the European Union on May 1, and which are all now members of NATO, that question could easily be answered with an incredulous, sardonic counter-question: Fifteen years after the fall of communism, 15 years which have seen the privatization of entire economies, democratic election after democratic election, full integration in Western political and security structures and there are still people around who think it is appropriate to ask whether the transition is over?
As a matter of fact there are such people, and I am one of them. But first, let's go back a few years to get some perspective.
In the early 1990s, as political analysts struggled to find an appropriate model for understanding what was happening in the aftermath of anti-communist revolutions that almost none of them had predicted, there were two outstanding favorites. The first described a process of "nomenklatura takeover". Although the form of economic and political decision making had changed, the old communist elites and their allies had deftly managed to jump off the communist ship and onto the capitalist ship just at the moment the two passed each other in the murky dawn of the post-Soviet era. In all post-communist countries, there are examples to back up such a case, not least in Russia itself where a former KGB operative called Vladimir Putin is, at this very moment, aggressively backtracking on the democratic reforms of the 1990s.
In the end, though, "nomenklatura takeover" was too personality based to have lasting explanatory value. Even if some of the new captains of industrial and political life had decidedly old world faces, they were still operating in radically different circumstances from the communist years. "Nomenklatura takeover"could tell you who the new elites were. It was less helpful in telling you what they would be doing. Enter the second and more enduring model for explaining post-communism: "transition."
In its most optimistic formulation, transition foresaw a rapid escape from the totalitarian past into the sunnier world of market economics and pluralist democracy. It was clear where they were coming from and even clearer where they were going.
More sober advocates of the transition model did, of course, realize that matters were not going to be as simple as that. Transition as a model for change mutated into "multiple transition" where the sheer scale of what so many countries were undertaking was recognized with alarming clarity. Successful transition would entail radical reform of the economy, the political system and, for the three federations of the former communist world, the national question as well. It would require a war on two or three fronts, waged simultaneously. For some countries it was a war they would not win. For others it was war, not transition, they would be engaged in.
But the unhappy tale of bloodshed, dictatorship and economic corruption that can be told with conviction from the Balkans in the southwest, through Chechnya in the Caucuses to the clan-based dictatorships of central Asia is not the whole story.
Back here in central Europe, matters have clearly been very different. At least in this part of the former communist world, the transition has been completed successfully. Hasn't it?
In fact, the reality is not quite so clear-cut. Obviously, no one could doubt the countries of central and eastern Europe have made huge strides since the end of communism. Compared with basket cases like Belarus and Turkmenistan, the Czech Republic and Poland look as though they are on different planets.
The transition in central and eastern Europe has certainly been successful. But this does not mean it is complete. Consider, for starters, the following observations about the adult populations of the region: every single adult who was born here was born under communism, the vast majority of adults knew nothing else until they were in their 20s or 30s, and a clear majority of all adults in the region have spent most of their adult and all of their childhood lives under communism.
The demographic breakdown on its own would therefore suggest caution to those ready to proclaim an end to the transition process. The legacy of attitudes and impressions from the communist era may well continue to feed through, in a variety of ways, for many years to come.
In more concrete terms, absolute economic performance will not match Western standards for decades. One study by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicted it would take, on average, 20 to 30 years for income per capita across central and eastern Europe even to reach 75 percent of the level enjoyed by the old, 15-member European Union.
Foreign investors in the region, while acknowledging big improvements, still complain about the difficulties of establishing a viable supply chain for their operations. The banking system is still far from offering its clients, domestic or corporate, the kind of services taken for granted in the West. Getting a mortgage, for example, in most countries still requires a 60 percent down payment. Compare that with the 95 to 100 percent mortgages routinely offered out in countries such as Britain, and you get a clear sense of just how different life expectations can be for ordinary people in the former communist countries of the east of Europe.
Economic hardships flowing from the communist legacy continue, naturally, to have an impact on the political system. Populists in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic (where the unreformed Communist Party holds second place in the polls) continue to play hard on the despair of those who either couldn't or wouldn't do what was necessary to take advantage of the new opportunities. In the Baltic states, Russian minorities "imported" from the Soviet era remain deeply disaffected.
The hard fact remains that in terms of politics, economics and nationhood, communism still casts its shadow across the region. Perhaps it can be summarized like this: What is normal about central and eastern Europe is now more or less the same as what is normal about western Europe. But what is abnormal, in many respects, remains explicable only in terms of the communist past. The transition from communism has been a huge success here. No question about it. But it's not over yet.
...and socialism spreads across Western Europe.
The problem is that because of Communism being imposed on the Eastern Satellites, they never really recovered from WWII (no Marshall Plan for them). So in reality, these nations are still transitioning from the end of WWII, as well as from the end of communism.
Rome wasn't built in a day, and formerly communist countries, who had their free-markets destroyed by socialism, cannot be expected to perform like western free-market states in only fifteen years.
INTEP - WV:Politics
Communism still haunts too many US campuses!
I read recently that more than 10,000 US university professors claim to be Marxists!
Oh I'd believe that.
I'm in Ireland, and there is a Union organiser I know fairly well.
We were out a few weeks ago, and started talking politics. He was spouting his usual socialist bullshit, and with every breath I countered him.
And THEN he showed his true colours, by saying: 'Communism can work, it's just never been given a chance'.
I broke my heart laughing, before saying: 'Save it for the androids. Communism can NEVER work, because what you consider a lofty ideal forgets ONE thing - HUMAN NATURE. Survival of the fittest. I guess you are organising unions, since you discovered you couldn't hack working in the real world.'
Spot on! I tell everyone that will listen, and some who won't that the leaders of the democrat party are card carrying communists. Time to educate the pubic anyway we can.
thanks for the update
Sadly, there will always be communists, just as there are still people who insist that Earth is flat.
I'm suprised that a good number of the Commie lackies in the former occupied countries weren't put against a wall and shot. Maybe the rest didn't want to reduce the total population by 10%. I wonder how many have just disappeared or been found slain.
Comunist is bad, it is evil! I do not want America to be comunist, is not good! Comunist do not like your country, and comunist want to kill good persons, persons that are good and free. Be strong!
Poland is now ruled by former Communists. Even most of theme didn't believe in Communism.
President Kwasniewski has been a staunch defender of making the EU not forget Europe's Christian heritage. And he's an atheist.
All I can think about is that scene in EuroTrip where the kids think they're hitchhiking to Berlin and they end up in Bratislava.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.