Posted on 08/12/2004 12:34:28 PM PDT by jazzergal
NEW YORK For all you pundits and political reporters out there who think the Iraq war will have a major influence on the fall election, or who think the Bush-Kerry race is a toss-up, Yale University economist Ray C. Fair has a message for you: forget both. Iraq won't matter and Bush will win in a landslide.
In an interview to be published in next Sunday's "New York Times Magazine," Fair told Deborah Solomon, "My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5% of the two-party votes ... the chances that Bush loses are very small."
Fair, who claims to be a Kerry supporter, is described by the Times in the Aug. 15 issue as being known for creating an econometric equation that "has predicted presidential elections with relative accuracy." His most recent book, in fact, is titled, "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things."
How does he explain media expectations of a close race? Polls are "notoriously flaky this far ahead of the election," he said, while his model has allegedly proven accurate to within 2.5%.
Economic growth and inflation are really the only things that matter in a presidential race, he argues, with the current war and social issues such as gay marriage having negligible impact.
Asked if his prediction will boost Bush's prospects, Fair replied, "If Kerry supporters see that I have made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could turn out just to prove an economist wrong."
That is what may have happened in Florida in 2000 when the ABCCBSNBCMSNBCFOX folks declared algore as the winner of the state of florida before the polls were closed in the panhandle, which is in a different time zone.
ping
I pray we are right, because the biggest thing that will be affected will be the unborn and they can not vote.
Vote for Keyes for Senate, vote Republican.
#;-)
*snork*
I like to call it "spontaneous research."
SW
I tend to agree. Things have changed since 9/11 in a major way.
Excellent point and a very good example! That is what happened.
Tell me again (news media) how that wasn't planned interference in the elections in Florida.
I respectfully disagree. The mere fact that most polls show the electorate evenly divided proves that many people have forgotten about the tragedies of 09/11/2001.
Partisans on both sides will always vote for the party line, but for the uncommitted "middle", the old chicken in every pot is the most resounding argument.
Congressman Billybob
Latest column, "Says the Wuss: Ma, He's Touching Me"
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Would you vote for a guy named Obama?
Too close to Osama. This will turn many people off.
I think Keyes has too much ground to make up but I think it will be a tossup til the end.
That is only true 78% of the time.
I saw Larry Sabato on tv yesterday trying to spin his way out of his predicitons, earlier this year, that Bush was gonna lose huge. I guess he felt like a fool after Kerry did not get the 17 percent bumb he predicted from the convention.
I would...............but I'm in Alabama.
I'll continue to pray!
It's the logic of political indifference and you are absolutely right. Most voters don't think their one vote matters, if they don't think their candidate has a chance, they don't bother to vote.
No, I wouldn't but that's because I'm a Believer in the Deity of the Lord Jesus Christ. He is Jehovah God Incarnate, who rose victorious from the dead! He lives today!!!!!!!
Mohammed was dead............. and still is dead!
He is a one of Satan's minions.
So no chance!!!
No American of any stripe needs to vote for Satan!
Obama is doing his olympic best to run away from debating Keyes. Alan has a very good chance.
Must be one of those "see no truth, hear no truth" Dems!!
3,000 innocents were murdered for the sole purpose of destroying America's economy. Haven't you figured out that this is their whole objective????? Iraq matters but overall if we have another 9/11 and 3,000 more get murdered we may not have an economy at all and this is their ultimate goal! Just re-cooping from that one is a sheer miracle and it's only because of this great President's leadership that it has!!
If not ... the populace needs no saving, and should be, and will be exterminated.
"3,000 innocents were murdered for the sole purpose of destroying America's economy. Haven't you figured out that this is their whole objective?????"
I know their number one objective is to kill as many Americans as possible, the second objective is to destroy our economy. I really don't understand what your bone of contention is here. I think you are agreeing with me and you just don't know it. Go back and re-read my comments.
My point was that terrorism is a much bigger issue today than the run-of-the mill economic/inflation issues of past elections. What you fail to understand is that our economy is now anciliary to the war on terrorism, yet economic success in our nation is dependent on winning this war.
I'm pretty skeptical of most of these forecasts, I just don't see the evidence that voter preferences have much changed between 9/10 and now. (The Democrats' 2002 setbacks appear to have been caused by lowered Demo turnouts, not voters switching party.).
I'd put more faith in the polls, which suggest that it again will be a tight race.
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