Posted on 08/09/2004 5:28:52 PM PDT by RWR8189
CHICAGO (CBS 2) Illinois' senate race is heating up with both Democrat Barack Obama and new Republican candidate Alan Keyes in town pressing the flesh and warming up to voters.
The Republican candidate in this race may just be getting started, but according to an exclusive new CBS 2/Newsradio 780 poll, Keyes has a long way to go. 67 percent of Illinois voters prefer Democrat Obama; 28 percent would choose Keyes.
Keyes and his supporters were feeling the heat of the August sun as he announced for U.S. Senate at a crowded rally in Arlington Heights. Our exclusive voter opinion survey shows Obama generating another kind of heat.
Obama's lead in our CBS 2/Newsradio 780 Survey was most pronounced among women voters, 74 percent to 21percent for Keyes. Among men, it was 59 percent to 36 percent.
There was no surprise in strongly Democratic Chicago: 79 percent for Obama, 16 percent for Keyes.
But in the heavily Republican collar counties, it was Obama with 62 percent, Keyes with 34 percent. . Even downstate, 56 percent of those polled preferred Obama to 38 percent for Keyes. The results were almost the same in rural areas: 57 percent to 39 percent.
Virtually every Democrat we talked to favored Obama. Among independent voters, 64 percent chose Obama, 30 percent chose Keyes. Even among Republicans, 27 percent defected to Obama, 67 percent chose Keyes.
White voters went 62 percent to 32 percent for Obama; black voters by a margin of 89 percent to 10 percent.
The poll was conducted by Survey USA this past Friday and Saturday. It is accurate to within plus or minus four percentage points.
What if the same kind of poll shows Kerry is ahead of Bush? And when did we start trusting polls as the Gospel --- especially when most of us are never polled? If it's by the telephone, I won't ever likely be polled.
The issue with Keyes isn't whether he is a conservative but a matter of personality/character.
The statement he made about H.C., no matter how he attempts to spin it, hurts him. It brings his character into question.
In addition, I've seen both Keyes and Obama on camera. Keyes isn't a dullard but Obama has a more welcoming on camera persona.
IMO, these are the two negatives Keyes has to focus on if he truly wishes to be competitive in this race.
Characterizing those that notice his weakness on these two issues as failing to endorse conservatism isn't accurate. It may be true in individual case but not for everyone that hasn't embraced his entrance to the race.
I do believe Republicans should work on his behalf to the best of their ability. Obama is a Liberal. Keyes endorses substantive conservative policy. The choice is clear for conservatives/Republicans in this race.
Keyes is no crackpot. He is a brilliant man and the debate he will make (win or lose) will bring the electorate closer to the right for the future.
You're right. His numbers will go down once people get to know him.
Well --- that's why the American Revolutionaries called their taxes which were far far lower "tyranny". They had a whole Revolution over taxes we'd think were way too low today. They approved of certain taxes only --- but far far less than we see today.
My bet is that Lisa Madigan is going to challenge Blago in primary, probably unsuccessfully, but probably bloody.
If we can run a decent candidate that runs a decent campaign, we might be able to pull off a win.
Keyes Lags Behind Obama In CBS Poll (Osama 67% Keyes 28%)"
Well duh, he entered the race Sunday?
Keyes said tonight that the dim canidate had retracted his six debate offer to any repub, and now says he will only two with Keyes.
Sounds to me there is a flip-flopper in Il also.
Sounds like Obama is pretty scared --- in spite of this poll of whatever people supposedly were polled.
how on earth can there be a reliable poll today?
And just WHAT was your take on Hillary, 4 years ago????
We
are talking about Keyes on TALKONE.com 1800 505043 now! Call in to the Roger Fredinberg Show. Ping everyone
Tell em Tomas sent ya.
Now if Obama becomes senator will his security detail be armed with harsh language? Just thinking out loud,not accusing or anything ;-)
I took a look at the 2000 presidential race, and a quick calculation showed that one could have added sufficent votes for Bush to have won every county in Illiniois except Cook county and if he keep the same precentage in Cook he would still have lost by half a million votes.
I agree with you that Keyes needs to pay A LOT of attention to downstate, but he can't wrtite off Cook county. As to getting down there on the first day, I doubt enough voters are paying attention yet to know who he is, let alone where he's going. It does take more than a day or two to set up the logistics of a barnstorming tour around the state, does it not?
Speaking of corruption, that may be one of the best reasons to bring a loose cannon like Keyes into this race. If there's anyone who might not "play by the rules" and make waves in political "convention" it's someone like Keyes.
I have no idea how he would change anything, but it's darn sure he won't bite his tongue.
32% self identified independents?
That's...striking.
If I may engage in some baseless presumption, could much of that apparently high figure be the result of voters being alienated by-
A. an inept GOP; and
B. a corrupt, Machine/black controlled Democrat party?
Is it possible that this is fertile ground for an "outside the box" candidate?
The more i think about it, the more I think that if Keyes loses, he ought to stick around and build momentum for a run at Governor B or Dick Durbin in 2006. If Jessie Ventura can be a governor....
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.