Bush Shouldn't Write Off the Black Vote (NYT Editorial)

The New York Times ^ | 6-16-04 | Juan Williams

[JulieRNR21]

WASHINGTON - With the presidential election only a few months away, it is time for President Bush to unleash his secret weapon - his relationship with black and Hispanic voters.

The president is already winning a third of the popular vote among Hispanics, according to a Zogby International poll taken this spring. With advertisements and outreach focused on reforms to allow easier immigration for workers, the president has a good chance to add to his numbers among Hispanics.

But in a close race, the key to re-election rests on the president's ability to increase his percentage of the black vote. Here, he has the chance to make tremendous gains - if only because he now has practically no support among black voters. A May Washington Post/ABC News poll showed the likely Democratic nominee, Senator John Kerry, with a 79 percent to 6 percent lead over Mr. Bush among black voters. If the president gets only 6 percent of the black vote this year he will have achieved the near impossible task of getting a lower percentage of black votes than he did in 2000, when he won 8 percent.

But the president has the opportunity to flip the script. With a direct appeal, President Bush could win at least 20 percent of the black vote - and the White House.

How can he attract those votes?

Continued here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/16/opinion/16WILL.html?ex=1088386784&ei=1&en=4b70924f6edba46f

[ICX]

W. speaks fluent Spanish. Kerry speaks French. I'll concede the Franco-American vote to Le Kerry.

Doesn't Bush have a Hispanic nephew (George P. Bush, if I'm not mistaken) who campaigned heavily for him in 2000? I distinctly remember him being very telegenic and articulate, and I'm surprised that we haven't heard anything about him on the campaign trail (yet). He should be a very valuable resource as far as connecting with Latino voters.

[bad company]

True. I think marginalizing jesse jackson the same way he marginalized arafat would be a good start. That aside though, after the fight that the black community has been through I don't see them stopping at this door just because david duke and al sharpton tell them they can't go in there. I'm telling you, put some more coffee on and stay away from that door!

[eureka!]

Re#30 Many would disagree with the "brightest" comment as to Juan. I think he is bright--he just gets his news from one side and believes it. When co-panelists give him other facts, he goes silent and I see lightbulbs go off...

[Wolfstar]

To do that, though, the president needs to begin reaching out to black Americans.

Seems to me, Juan Willams documents pretty convincingly that GWG has been reaching out all along. Maybe it's time for black Americans to do a little reaching out of their own.

[vanmorrison]

The problem I have with William's thesis is that Bush HAS reached out to the Black vote, time and again! It just DOESN'T MATTER!

How else can anyone rationally explain the fact that, even after three years of Bush's attempts to appeal to Blacks in countless ways through his policies AS PRESIDENT, he STILL only garners 6 percent of their vote!

These black people are not children, fer Crissakes! They know what the hell is going on. But they STILL prefer to align themselves with the Democrat demagogues. I say, the hell with THEM!

[Recovering_Democrat]

What is amazing is this: when (not if) the black population stops allowing the Democrat Party Operatives take them for granted, the Republican Party will begin to sweep election after election. One of the biggest real reasons the Democrat Party is still a nationally relevant organization is because of their stranglehold on the black vote. That stranglehold will not last forever.

The Republicans, when they begin to get more black votes, ought to pay close attention to this constituency...not by pandering, but by acknowledging and promoting. Such actions will create a death knell for Democrats.

Speaking as a former Democrat, that'll be a happy day.

[Wolfstar]

Doesn't Bush have a Hispanic nephew...I'm surprised that we haven't heard anything about him on the campaign trail (yet).

George P. Bush, son of Gov. and Mrs. Jeb Bush, has been busy getting his law degree.

[sarasota]

Didn't NPR dump Juan some time ago, only to bring him back?

[dufekin]

One big problem: candidates win the presidency by winning states, not pressure groups. Let's see where blacks are important (at least 10% of the population), and whether Bush might do well to attract their votes to win those states. Remember that very few Bush voters are black, so if Bush already will carry a state, then in the cold calculus of electoral politics, the black vote doesn't matter.

(source for black population: http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/atlas/black_a.txt )

States with a black population less than 10% of the state's population are not listed.

ALABAMA: 26% black, but CERTAINLY BUSH.
ARKANSAS: 16% black, LIKELY BUSH. An Arkansan isn't on the ballot.
DELAWARE: 19% black, but CERTAINLY KERRY. (Note: electoral assessment is based solely upon the 2000 election; I'd like to see some polls to verify this designation.)
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: 60% black, but CERTAINLY KERRY.
FLORIDA: 15% black and POSSIBLY BUSH. Getting the black vote would help Bush here.
GEORGIA: 29% black and LIKELY BUSH.
ILLINOIS: 15% black and LIKELY KERRY--almost certainly so. The black vote would be helpful, but Bush needs more than just that to win this state. A Senate race might prove interesting, but the Democrat is African-American (or at least I think so).
LOUISIANA: 32% black and LIKELY BUSH. When Catholics learn how un-Catholic Kerry is, expect more movement toward Bush.
MARYLAND: 28% black and CERTAINLY KERRY.
MICHIGAN: 14% black and LIKELY KERRY. Getting more of the black vote would help Bush carry this state.
MISSSISSIPPI: 36% black but CERTAINLY BUSH.
MISSOURI: 11% black and POSSIBLY BUSH. Almost always votes for the winner. Getting some of the black vote here would be very helpful for Bush. Perhaps that's why the Democrats reportedly have attacked Republicans unfairly as racist. But more of the black population in Missouri is rural than elsewhere, which may make it easier to win.
NEW JERSEY: 14% black and LIKELY KERRY. Playing up the terrorist attacks, the booming economy, and winning some black voters will help Bush carry this state that Kerry desperately needs.
NEW YORK: 19% black and CERTAINLY KERRY.
NORTH CAROLINA: 22% black and LIKELY BUSH. Potentially interesting Senate race, but likely Republican as well.
OHIO: 12% black and POSSIBLY BUSH. Winning more of the black vote may be essential for Bush to win this state. Voted for favorite son Edwards over Kerry in the primaries.
SOUTH CAROLINA: 30% black but CERTAINLY BUSH. Voted against Kerry in the primaries.
TENNESSEE: 16% black and LIKELY BUSH. Not even Gore could use his fear tactics to take the state that he called "home."
TEXAS: 12% black and home of George W. Bush. CERTAINLY BUSH.
VIRGINIA: 20% black and LIKELY BUSH. Large rural black population may be easier to win than urban blacks under a Democrat political machine.

So let us list the states where Bush winning over black voters may help him win electoral votes:

*****Florida, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio****

Now, let us craft plans for winning these states. Perhaps advertising on Black Entertainment Television stations in these states will help.

Maybe Bush should take a campaign trip to the Delta region of Missouri (Cape Girardeau and points south) and to the central part of the state (which has a few counties with a significant black population). Similarly, Bush could visit the smaller cities and rural areas of southern New Jersey. As for Florida, Bush needs to target the entire state hard and heavy, urban and rural, black, Hispanic, and white.

I'm not familiar enough with Ohio and Michigan to comment on how to parlay the black strategy to win those two states. Certainly, a better economy might be helpful.

Similarly, for Hispanics, only a few states are significant targets: ARIZONA, CALIFORNIA, COLORADO, FLORIDA, ILLINOIS, NEVADA, NEW JERSEY, NEW MEXICO, NEW YORK, TEXAS. All but New York and probably California and Illinois are significantly in play. Spanish is one of the two official languages of New Mexico, and the state is 45% Hispanic, more so than any other state.

Let's keep going. To target Pacific Islanders is to target HAWAII, which is CERTAINLY KERRY.

Asians, I have heard, will vote mostly for Bush, but they're insignificant except in CALIFORNIA and especially HAWAII, which are LIKELY and CERTAINLY KERRY, respectively.

Native Americans are significant in ALASKA and OKLAHOMA (both of which are CERTAINLY BUSH) and in NEW MEXICO.

Non-Hispanic whites are a majority of the population in every state except
(1) DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, 28.8%;
(2) NEW MEXICO, 45.9%; and
(3) CALIFORNIA, 48.8%.

[Rate_Determining_Step]

> 3. 15 Billion for Aids in Africa

I've been an Africa watcher for nearly 20 years. Reading things and learning all the time.

What I'd like to see is a "strategic relationship" with a stable African country. Lift them up with capitalism. This aid crap is a sinkhole. It's basically a pile of money dropped. You don't know if it's coming again. It's in your best interest to jump on as much of that pile as possible.

Now, if there's a peaceful African country that wants to leave the third world once and for all, then they need to trade with the rest of the world.

We all think of Africa as being like the surface of the moon. It isn't like that. They have lots of resources.

There's no reason why that continent should be on par with Europe, N America or Asia. But, the introduction to the modern world came at the hands of colonialists who did a bad job by and large. Dutch, French, etc. Many didn't achieve their tenuous independence till the 60s.

We should pick our "Israel" (best friend) in Africa and help them by adopt capitalism where they can make stuff, open US plants, create local companies, etc. We should make trade agreements, create good will. Promote tourism (How many Hiltons in Africa?).

We've been struggling with this for 250 years and it wasn't pretty for a while there. Instead of aid, they need guidance.

Which country would be the best to take a proactive interest in? Which has the best culture fit with ours?

RDS

Someday, I'd like to take a vacation in Baghdad and Africa rather than Europe.

[Conspiracy Guy]

So what is your final conclusion?

[dufekin]

My final conclusion? That Bush might do well to appeal to African-Americans, but only to individual communities in key states. A broad-based attempt to win Hispanic votes would be more worthwhile than such an attempt at black votes because Hispanic voters live overwhelmingly in so-called "swing states."

A national campaign to win black votes would be a waste of money for Bush, because most African-Americans live in states that Bush will win anyway, and many of the remainder live in states where Kerry's lead is overwhelming. A national campaign for Hispanic votes is more worthwhile because Bush already has a third of their votes and because these voters can help Bush win or secure electoral votes.

[rarebird]

Your viewpoint is somewhat similiar to a viewpoint expressed on a black moderate-conservative website that I read. It has its own take about Juan Williams' commentary.Although the website goes into more detail about what Bush can do in attracting black votes in swing states like Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Wisconsin. It says that there will be a high black turnout, and Bush can either sink or swim by siphoning off some votes from Kerry by targeting black subgroups that are most open to GOP appeals. On another website, a black libertarian did a "Republican Contract With Black America," a 10-point plan inspired by a Thomas Sowell article. He says he sent it to top Republican officials in March, but got no response. Apparently even some "African-Americans like J.C. Watts and Ed Brooke are telling black media that they question the Republicans' commitment to the issue. If they're questioning it, then why should conservative-leaning black people such as myself and 80% of my family (who have voted for individual Republicans, but not yet for a Republican president) cast our votes for Bush? Not good for those of us who are trying to get people to examine the candidates. BTW, most Latinos don't live in swing states. Texas is solidly GOP. California, Illinois, and New York are solidly Democratic. However, Florida, New Mexico, and Arizona are in play.

[rarebird]

That first link didn't work. Here's the link to the "the black moderate-conservative website that analyzed Juan Williams' column today.

[El Conservador]

Does that mean conservative blacks should be summarily dismissed because the majority of the community voted for Gore???

Way to make inroads in the black community.

[vanmorrison]

"There's no reason why that continent should be on par with Europe, N America or Asia. But, the introduction to the modern world came at the hands of colonialists who did a bad job by and large. Dutch, French, etc. Many didn't achieve their tenuous independence till the 60s."

I think you're slandering the Colonialists. The Africans they encountered were practically neolithic savages. Including places like Timbuktu, Zimbabwe, or Zulu cultures that are raved about. I rate these places on a par with the murderous Aztecs in Mexico. Even today, with the Europeans removed, they butcher each other in the millions. You can't blame the Colonialists for that anymore! In fact, the only habitable places in Africa are those areas that still have vestiges of European administrative organization and minimal contact with the West. And we see the Africans doing everything they can to destroy what is left of that worthwhile legacy!

[Conspiracy Guy]

OK I can agree with that. A national campaign would waste valuable resources for little results.

I will continue my one democrat, (red, yellow, black, or white), at a time conversion mission.

[MEGoody]

"Juan Williams is a two-faced poormouth, whose credibility is supect depending what microphone is under his nose."

I disagree with Juan on a lot of things, but I've never felt he was two-faced. Maybe you can shed some insight on why you feel this way?

[windchime]

Bump!

[Southack]

C#11

Also, if President Bush wants to positively *SHOCK* the liberal news media with a pro-Black campaign blitz, he needs (oh, how I hate to say this) to hire Donna Brazille into the top tier of his campaign staff.

We conservatives would hate that particular move, but he would gain 25% of the Black vote and destroy the Dems' monopoly forever in that one fatal strike.