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Posted on 05/30/2004 12:05:02 AM PDT by JustPiper
Picture credit: TheCabal
Picture Credit:Calpernia
"I will never cower before any master nor bend to any threat"
KHOBAR, Saudi Arabia - Tens of American, European and other hostages were released Sunday and a gunman believed to be the lead Islamic militant holding them was arrested, a Saudi security official said, adding that two other gunmen were "in the process of being arrested."
We are the "Stotters" who make ourselves aware of the enemy who wishes to do us harm
That's what I gleaned even from the Ajeeb translation. Anywhere Americans or Westerners gather...
It's a good thing!
I'm going to go peruse the It's Happening site for a while.
Back in a bit.
Welcome to FR.
Darn squirrel!
Some analysis of Saudi attacks and threats.
Date: Sun, 6 Jun 2004 12:00:32 -0500 (CDT)
From: alert@stratfor.com
Reply-To: freeintel@mail2.stratfor.com
To: intelbrief@stratfor.com
Subject: Terrorism Intelligence Weekly: Saudi Arabia: The Shift Toward
Precision Strikes
Please forward this Terrorism Intelligence Weekly to a friend or
colleague.
Saudi Arabia: The Shift Toward Precision Strikes
By Fred Burton
Summary
Islamist militants in Saudi Arabia increasingly are targeting the housing
compounds and corporate offices of Western expatriates. The tactics used in
the recent killings at the Oasis compound in Khobar indicate what is likely a
new trend: Militants forsaking the spectacular attack for the precise.
Analysis
Last week, Stratfor's Terrorism Intelligence Weekly focused on the likelihood
that al Qaeda sleeper cells are in place within the United States, and what
countersurveillance operations could do to pre-empt an attack. We now turn
our attention to Saudi Arabia -- where recent events also highlight the
importance of effective countersurveillance techniques.
Tactical Evolution
U.S. counterterrorism sources recently have told Stratfor they believe new
attacks against expatriate housing compounds in Saudi Arabia are highly
probable -- a scenario that, in fact, was borne out early June 2, with a
shooting outside a compound in Riyadh.
The Saudi government so far has not shown any ability to curb militant
activity effectively. Given the sophistication of, and striking operational
similarities between, the recent attacks against Westerners in Yanbu and
Khobar -- and the fact that the militants appear to have sharpened the
deadliness of their tactics since the Yanbu strike in early May -- it appears
the militants are outpacing the Saudi security services.
In both cases, small -- four-man -- tactical groups carried out the assaults,
employing a high degree of stealth and precision. In Yanbu, at least some of
the gunmen were employees of ABB Lummus; they gained unfettered access to the
target through long association and the cover provided by their
company-issued uniforms. In Khobar, the assailants wore military uniforms --
a tactic that would have aided their entrance into the Al Khobar Petroleum
Center, the offices of Arab Petroleum Investments Corp. and also their final
destination, the Oasis compound. Uniforms likely also aided their escape from
the scene.
The targets themselves represent both a departure from attacks traditionally
associated with Islamist militants, and what might be the ideal target for
future operations abroad.
The energy-related facilities in Yanbu and Khobar were selected for two
reasons: First, they were symbols of Western business and influence in the
Muslim world, and they were relatively .soft. targets -- company offices and
residential compounds.
Symbolism -- as we have long been aware -- ranks high among al Qaeda's
targeting priorities: Major attacks are planned with the goal of capturing
the attention not only of Westerners, but of the Muslim world. Symbolism
might have been on the minds of the militants when they dragged the body of a
Briton from Khobar behind a vehicle for more than two kilometers -- a scene
reminiscent of Mogadishu, Al Fallujah and Yanbu, and imagery that is
difficult to shake from the Western consciousness. By striking at the heart
of the Saudi oil industry, the militants also sent a message to sympathizers
who resent what they see as the theft of Arab wealth by foreign infidels.
From another perspective, the Oasis housing compound and oil offices in Yanbu were lacking in security -- enhancing their attractiveness to terrorists,
because ideal targets like embassies and military installations have
increased security significantly since the Sept. 11 attacks. Assailants have
been forced to seek out large concentrations of Westerners elsewhere -- and
the security at places like the Oasis housing compound is no match for the
sophistication the militants displayed.
Sophisticated Strikes
Judging from the details of the attacks and anecdotal evidence from the
survivors, both the Yanbu and Khobar strikes involved high levels of
pre-operational surveillance: Militants displayed intimate working knowledge
of the facilities. layouts and the routines of security guards.
In both cases, the attacks took place in the morning -- when the day.s
activities were just beginning to get under way and, at the Oasis, when gates
were crowded with early-morning commuters.
. In the Oasis incident, militants set off a small explosive device at the
main gate as a diversion. They opened fire on vehicles at the compound's
entrance, then moved toward the houses.
Once inside the compound, militants literally went door-to-door, seeking
out Westerners for execution. As in Yanbu, they were careful to separate out
Muslims and anyone of Middle Eastern origin: for instance, a Christian woman
was allowed to go free after proving she was Lebanese, and an Iraqi American
man lived to tell the tale of being asked to prove he was a follower of
Islam. Similarly, in Yanbu, a militant passed by a Filipino native, saying,
.You are not what we are looking for..
One of the key differences between the Yanbu and Khobar incidents points to
the likely shape of future attacks: Precision strikes.
Although the Yanbu killings were carried out by a local Islamist militant
group, they were praised by al Qaeda's top leader in the kingdom, Abdel Aziz
al-Muqrin, as a good example to follow in targeting Westerners in Saudi
Arabia. Days before the May 29 Khobar attack, al-Muqrin endorsed the use of
four-man cells in precision attacks. This statement meshed with al-Muqrin's
writings in previous weeks and months that focused on several tactical
themes: strikes within cities, strikes against corporations, assassinations
and kidnappings.
Notably, the Khobar attacks were claimed by al-Muqrin himself -- a sign that
al Qaeda not only approves small-scale, precision strikes, but is adapting
its operations.
A Matter of Security
There is little that governments, businesses or expatriates in Saudi Arabia
can do to protect themselves from these kinds of attacks, other than stepping
up security around housing compounds and offices. And that in itself could be
a questionable solution, if local -- mostly government -- security forces are
employed.
At the Oasis compound, the gate guards -- who were unarmed -- fled at the
first sign of violence. Afterward three of the four gunmen managed to escape
arrest, even though they were surrounded by Saudi security forces -- a fact
that suggests either incompetence or complicity on the part of the security
forces, and certainly does nothing to alleviate fears of follow-on attacks.
Tactically speaking, aggressive countersurveillance measures will be
necessary if further attacks are to be thwarted. Because the militants
obviously employed extensive pre-operational surveillance of the targets in
Yanbu and Khobar, security services would be needed to watch for any signs of
such activity around other Western-oriented facilities. An aggressive
countersurveillance program -- by trained security personnel -- can be very
effective in disrupting militant plans. Once surveillance is noted, the Saudi
authorities ideally would be contacted immediately to investigate and
intercede as necessary.
That said, it is difficult to understand why, in the aftermath of Yanbu, a
permanent Saudi police presence was not in place at the Oasis compound in
Khobar. It is possible that the kingdom.s security officials believed threats were limited to Riyadh and, to a lesser extent, the Red Sea coast. However,
the recent trend has demonstrated that militants have a much wider geographic
reach -- possibly nationwide -- and it would be surprising if security is not
heightened around other Western facilities and neighborhoods throughout the
kingdom. If government and local security services continue with business as
usual, the militants will be able to as well.
Given the blows that Islamist militants have struck -- against both
Westerners and, by extension, the Saudi regime -- in recent weeks, the
support they have garnered from al Qaeda and the inability of the security
infrastructure to deal with the threat, Stratfor sees an inevitable increase
in the use of small assault teams in strikes against Western assets in the
kingdom and beyond. Given the success rate of such actions so far -- compared
to recent failures to carry out large-scale suicide attacks in Jordan, and
the manpower, investment and false starts that went into recent successful
suicide bombings in Riyadh, this methodology of precision over fire-power
easily could be adapted to many circumstances and theaters of operation in
which Islamist militants have a vested interest in striking at the West.
AMEN! AMEN! AMEN! AMEN! AMEN! AMEN! AMEN!
Agreed. But, they want to hit us on our own soil in the worst way as well.
Snake Causes Transformer Fire, Outage
MARLOW, Okla. (AP) - After avoiding power outages from recent storms, this community was plunged into darkness by a snake searching for a place to nap.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040607/D832521O0.html
Well I profile and duck when a plane goes over my head. I live 10 miles from the PP&L Nuclear Power Plant. I have had my RadBlock pills since 9/11. I also have a husband that thinks I am a nut case. I am very scared to take our vacation to the Cape this year. I do not want to leave home. That is sad because I do not leave home all year (vacation wise) and I am freaked out. My husband was yelling at me that he was not going to cancel vacation plans.
Well that's for sure, but this specific threat is applying to their concentrated effort in SA.
From: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040607/D832521O0.html
>>>When asked how big the snake was, Cain estimated it to be 3 to 4 feet in length.
"It depends on if you measured before and after; those are two different things," she said.<<<<
Before or after what?
Your welcome!
AL Quaeda is trying to keep the Muslim world united in it's attack against the US and everything not Muslim.
This was evident in the Khobar attack, where they attempted to spare all Muslims.
The WOT is moving along slowly but surely in Iraq, and the terrorists know they must prevent any further normalization in the ME.
Well, this pretty much settles the "do they have nukes?" question in my mind.
IF they had nukes (apparently not), the threats against airlines wouldn't be necessary.
As oceanview is fond of saying..if they had the capability, they wouldn't be focusing on the "low tech" route.
I tend to agree, FWIW.
Ha ha. Good tagline.
I try to look at it the way the Israelis do, in Israel. Live your life or they win. Be vigilant, but don't stop living. :)
It could also be a diversion to make us think they will hit our interets in Saudi Arabia.
We expect it to happen over there, and then "BOOM", we are hit hard over here.
I wouldn't take this threat as being SA specific.
Everything is not always as it seems with these guys.
Threaten air attacks in Saudi and hit us hard on the ground in the US.
It's going be a bad summer for Americans "EVERYWHERE".
I shall vacation. I will take my supplies with me! Canceling would disappoint and scare my daughter and I would never want to do that.
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