Posted on 03/15/2004 6:19:08 PM PST by Indy Pendance
WASHINGTON - Even before the bombings in Madrid, White House officials were worrying that terrorists might strike the United States before the November elections.
Now, with the Socialists' surprise election victory in Spain, analysts believe the ballot box rebuke of one of President Bush (news - web sites)'s closest allies in the war in Iraq (news - web sites) could embolden terrorists to try the same tactics in the United States to create fear and chaos.
"That's an amazing impact of a terrorist event, to change the party in power," said Jerrold Post, a former CIA (news - web sites) profiler who directs the political psychology program at George Washington University.
"The implications of this are fairly staggering," agreed political psychologist Stanley Renshon of City University of New York. "This is the first time that a terrorist act has influenced a democratic election. This is a gigantic, loud wakeup call. There's no one they'd like to have out of office more than George W. Bush."
In political terms, the question is whether an attack would cause Americans to rally around Bush or blame him for the nation's vulnerabilities.
Bush has made the war on terrorism his trademark issue, spending tens of billions of dollars at home and abroad in the name of fighting terrorists. Polls show it's his strongest suit in his re-election battle against Democrat John Kerry.
Traditionally, in times of peril, Americans have supported their president. After Sept. 11, 2001, Bush soared in the polls. That standing has softened over time but still remains strong, reinforced by the fact that America has not been hit again.
"People are critical of Bush in lots of ways but they still give him pretty good grades for dealing with the war on terrorism," said pollster Andy Kohut.
If there were an attack, he said, "the traditional effect is a rally."
But Kohut and others say the rally effect could diminish, particularly if Americans doubted Bush's ability to protect them or thought the war on Iraq played any part. His anti-terrorism standing might be weakened by other factors, too, such as doubts about his handling of the economy, analysts say.
How the Democrats responded to a possible attack would figure in as well.
"It has been made a political issue already," said Columbia University political scientist Robert Shapiro. "It's no longer the attack out of nowhere like 9-11 was," he said. "There's a context for it that's very different."
Kerry has been probing for Bush weaknesses on the international front, accusing the president of alienating allies at a time when the United States needed them the most. Kerry claims that some foreign leaders have told him privately that they would prefer him in the White House. The administration shot back Monday that Kerry ought to name names of foreign leaders, suggesting it would mean he lied if he failed to produce.
The administration has made no attempt to hide its concern about another attack.
"We live in an age of terror, in which ruthless enemies seek to destroy not only our nation and not only to destroy all free nations but to destroy freedom as a way of life," National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said last week. She spoke of "our worst nightmare" of attack by chemical, biological or nuclear weapons at the hands of terrorists.
Bush regularly talks about the threat in his stump speeches. In his State of the Union address, he said it was tempting to think, after more than two years, that the danger was behind Americans. "That hope is understandable, comforting and false," Bush said.
Brookings Institution political analyst Stephen Hess said issues such as terrorist attacks are troublesome for campaigns because they represent the unknown.
"Nothing bothers a politician or a strategist as much as trying to contemplate the unknown, trying to factor it in, what would happen."
There is no way the red areas cower and give the election to a pansy appeasing dem when we are attacked, that is against every thing they have been taught makes a man, yes even union guys. That unwillingness to cower from bullies is the make up of the American spirit, that has the rest of the weak socialist world calling us cowboys. When they say it about Bush they think they are being deragatory, I and most of Americans just say amen. Unlike Europe Americans have been taught that there are some things worth fighting for, freedom being one.
I'd like to think we wouldn't have. But yes, I remember Reagan. Pulling out was a mistake and shelling the hills instead of the terrorist camps was a mistake too. There has been a combination of errors that led up to 9/11. And it included Carter's handling of Iran, Reagan's handling of Lebanon, Bush Sr's failure to remove Saddam the first time and Clinton's failure to respond to the first WTC bombing, the OKC bombing, the TWA flight bombing, and opportunities to catch Bin Laden.
Reagan's blasting of Libya and Bush Sr's driving Iraq out of Kuwait were the only bright spots.
I wrote:
If America ever has a nuclear conflict, the democrats will lose cities and the republicans gain states in Presidential elections. Seems those who reside in the heartland and countryside vote republican while those who live in the squalor of their socialist cities vote democrat.
Flame me:) But demographics seem to indicate the democrats will be on the receiving end of any conflict in which mass casualities are the objective.
My post was meant more in reference to Kerry's cowardice.
:O(
IMO
by Laura Mansfield, Analyst - NE Intelligence Network
The terrorist attack that massacred 200 of your countrymen, and injured over a thousand, was a horrific act. The world grieves with you. We all know it could have happened to our people in our countries just as easily as it happened in Madrid last Thursday.
But no matter how tragic and horrible that act was, it was not a victory for the terrorists.
The victory for the terrorists in Spain came on Sunday.
The professed goal of the attack, according to numerous Al Qaeda communiques, was to punish Spain for its support of the United States in the war against Iraq.
Sunday, in your free elections, you voted to place the communist party in power. This morning your new leadership announced that it would withdraw the Spanish troops from Iraq, and in effect abandon the coalition.
Your actions proved beyond the shadow of a doubt to Al Qaeda that if they kill enough people in a mass casualty attack that they can swing the popular vote. You've proved that they can influence elections.
You have just guaranteed that the United States will sustain a mass casualty terrorist action on our soil before our November elections. After all, maybe we too can be frightened into a policy of isolationalism. You probably also doomed Tony Blair's government in England to the same fate. How many will die in terror attacks in the United States and England in order for the terrorists to try and intimidate us?
In 1937, your countryman Pablo Picasso created a masterpiece depicting the horrors of wars in Guernica.
That same year, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain made this statement: "We should seek by all means in our power to avoid war, by analyzing possible causes, by trying to remove them, by discussion in a spirit of collaboration and good will." He entered into a policy of appeasement with Germany, instead of taking a stand and drawing a line in the sands of time. The end result was that Adolf Hitler had more time to strengthen his hold on power and perpetrate a holocaust not just on the Jews of Germany, but on much of Europe.
At the same time, your countrymen were giving their lives in a struggle for freedom in Spain.
You were not afraid in 1937. Where is the courage of 1937?
The message you sent to Al Qaeda yesterday was clear. "Please don't threaten us; please don't kill our people; we'll do what you want us to do."
Why are you allowing the terrorists to intimidate you now? Why do you let them win?
What happened?
I leave you now with the words "Hasta la Vista". Call us when you need us. You will be calling; your actions in response to the Madrid terrorism attack guaranteed it. And when you call us, we will come and help. Even if Al Qaeda threatens us and attacks us. We don't let fear cower us into appeasement or surrender. That's the kind of people we are.
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