Al Qaeda again threatens America (Thread 3) Daily Terror Threat

World Tribune ^ | Thursday, February 5, 2004

[Mossad1967]

SANAA, Yemen, Jan. 24 (UPI) -- A purported statement by al-Qaida in Yemen warned Saturday of a "major strike" soon in the United States.

The statement, distributed by the Yemeni Tagamoo Party for Reforms, said: "A major strike, a big event will take place in America soon," reminiscent of the Sept. 11 attacks.

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Previous threads

[NothingMan]

"A review of the "facts" you accept would appear to be in order, and I offer my assistance to you in any way I can."


I think I can manage the factual review. Thanks.

Maybe it's just me, but the tone of the thread seems different (more combative and hostile) the past couple of days than the other thousands of posts over the past three months. I referenced the Congressional North Korean Advisory Group already. I went through and cut and paste the relevant excepts from the entire report.

In addition to dropping Russia, I'm dropping this too. I come to this thread to see the latest AQ (or wannabees) threats/diatribes/pronouncements. I don't come here to be lectured on Russia or North Korea. If you knew me, you would be aghast at the absurdity of it.

I am trying to recall if anyone else has been "called out" like I have (three times on Russia and now on North Korea) even though I have made several *long* posts defending my opinions. Disagree if you wish. No problem. But this is (as one poster warned me when I first posted a couple days ago) a lot of spinning and baiting and sparring. It's not dialogue.

(from post 6535 of the last thread)

Oh brother!!!
You believe this claptrap????
Why are you so eager to defend Mother Russia, eh comrade?
Shto eta? (Russian for "What's this?")

I don't have anything to prove.

I tried to overlook the nonsense. Challenging my patriotism is beneath contempt and was unworthy of a response. I had hoped the negativity and the baiting were temporary, but it has dragged into this thread.

I'll go back to "lurking", if even that.

I *really* don't have time to get sucked into virtual debates. It was my mistake for posting in the first place. So I blame myself.

But for the most part, the rest of you guys are good folks and pretty sharp.

Keep fighting the good fight.

For anyone interested in a congressional report from *five* years ago . . .

Members of the Speaker's North Korea Advisory Group (1999)

Rep. Benjamin A. Gilman, NY
Chairman, North Korea Advisory Group and Chairman, Committee on International Relations
Rep. Doug Bereuter, NE
Chairman, Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific
Rep. Sonny Callahan, AL
Chairman, Subcommittee on Foreign Operations
Rep. Christopher Cox, CA
Chairman, Republican Policy Committee
Rep. Tillie K. Fowler, GA
Vice Chair, Republican Conference
Rep. Porter J. Goss, FL
Chairman, Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
Rep. Joe Knollenberg, MI
Member of the Subcommittee on Foreign Operations
Rep. Floyd Spence, SC
Chairman, Committee on Armed Services
Rep. Curt Weldon, PA
Chairman, Subcommittee on Military Research and Development

(snip)

". . .North Korea's WMD programs pose a major threat to the United States and its allies. This threat has advanced considerably over the past five years, particularly with the enhancement of North Korea's missile capabilities. There is significant evidence that undeclared nuclear weapons development activity continues, including efforts to acquire uranium enrichment technologies and recent nuclear-related high explosive tests. This means that the United States cannot discount the possibility that North Korea could produce additional nuclear weapons outside of the constraints imposed by the 1994 Agreed Framework. In the last five years, North Korea's missile capabilities have improved dramatically. North Korea has produced, deployed and exported missiles to Iran and Pakistan, launched a three-stage missile (Taepo Dong 1), and continues to develop a larger and more powerful missile (Taepo Dong 2). Unlike five years ago, North Korea can now strike the United States with a missile that could deliver high explosive, chemical, biological, or possibly nuclear weapons. Currently, the United States is unable to defend against this threat. The progress that North Korea has made over the past five years in improving its missile capabilities, its record as a major proliferator of ballistic missiles and missile technology, combined with its development activities on nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, ranks North Korea with Russia and China as one of the greatest missile proliferation threats in the world. . . .

Unlike five years ago, North Korea can now strike the United States with a missile that could deliver high explosive, chemical, biological, or possibly nuclear weapons. The United States currently is unable to defend against this threat. . . .

In the last five years, North Korea has made significant progress in improving its missile capabilities. It has produced, deployed and exported missiles to Iran and Pakistan, launched a three-stage missile (Taepo Dong 1), and continues to develop a larger and more powerful longer-range missile (Taepo Dong 2). . . .

North Korea attempted to orbit a small satellite using the Taepo Dong 1 in August 1998, but the third stage failed during powered flight; other aspects of the flight, including stage separation, appear to have been successful.

If it had an operable third-stage and a reentry vehicle capable of surviving ICBM flight, North Korea could now strike the continental United States with a Taepo Dong 1. In such a case, about two-thirds of the payload mass would be required for the reentry vehicle structure. The remaining mass is probably too light for an early generation nuclear weapon, but could strike a target in the United States with a biological or chemical warhead. . . .

A two-stage Taepo Dong 2 could deliver a payload of several hundred kilograms (enough for an early generation nuclear weapon) to Alaska or Hawaii, and could deliver a lighter weapon to the western half of the continental United States.
A three-stage Taepo Dong 2 could deliver a payload of several hundred kilograms, an early generation nuclear weapon, anywhere in the United States. . . .

This report specifically addresses the threat North Korea poses to the United States security over the past five years. Given the extraordinary progress made by North Korea in enhancing its missile capabilities in that time-frame, it is reasonable to conclude that the missile threat facing the United States will only increase, and probably dramatically so, over the next five to ten years, absent effective policy. This is particularly true if one considers those factors which were heavily discounted in the 1995 NIE regarding the ballistic missile threat facing the United States. Specifically, the 1995 NIE was criticized, among other reasons, for: basing its assessment on the vulnerability of only the United States' 48 contiguous states; for underestimating the time it would take a rogue nation to develop a long-range ballistic missile; for downplaying the impact of foreign assistance on the missile programs; for undervaluing the effect of space launch vehicle (SLV) development on missile proliferation; for being unrealistic about the potential sale of SLVs, and for dismissing the threat of an accidental or unauthorized ballistic missile launch.(43) Each of these factors has particular relevance for North Korea's missile programs. The Rumsfeld Commission, formally know as the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, more fully analyzed these factors. The Commission also made recommendations for the Intelligence Community to consider as it prepared to issue its next ballistic missile threat assessment (the 1999 NIE, which was released in September 1999).(44) . . . .

TAEPO DONG 1

North Korea is in the process of developing longer-range ballistic missiles. The two-stage Taepo Dong 1 has a range of 1,500-2,000 km (930-1,240 miles) and at one point was expected to enter production in 1995. On August 31, 1998, North Korea used a Taepo Dong 1 with an additional solid-fuel third stage in an attempt to place a small satellite into orbit. Apparently, the first stage (based on the No Dong missile motor) and the second stage (based on the SCUD C motor) operated as planned, and the third stage separated and carried the payload a distance before becoming disabled. The test demonstrated North Korea's ability to integrate numerous components in building a multi-stage missile, building a guidance package, and using both liquid and solid fuel. The test did not demonstrate a capability to construct a reentry vehicle that could survive atmospheric reentry at the speed of an ICBM, nor did it show the capacity to build a fully operational solid-fuel third stage.(54)

DoD estimated that the Taepo Dong 1, with a properly functioning third stage, could have a range of 3,850-5,600 km (2,400-3,500 miles), enough to reach Alaska and Hawaii. One expert predicted that the Taepo Dong 1 with a third stage could reach Alaska and Hawaii with a small nuclear warhead, and could reach much of the continental United States with a lighter warhead, such as a biological or chemical weapon.(55) The 1999 National Intelligence Council estimate indicated that if the Taepo Dong 1 had a properly functioning third stage and a survivable reentry vehicle, it could strike targets in the United States with sufficient size for a chemical or biological weapon, but not for an early-generation nuclear weapon.(56) It is not known where North Korea acquired the solid fuel third stage for the August 1998 test, but there are several possibilities. David Wright of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) said the solid fuel motor could have been acquired from Pakistan, which may have copied it from a French missile motor, or North Korea may have used, or copied, one stage of the Chinese M-11 short-range ballistic missile. Pakistan reportedly received M-11 missiles, components, and production technology from China. Iran received solid missile technology from Russia, and perhaps China, and may have passed it to North Korea in return for SCUD and No Dong missiles and technology. Another possibility is that North Korea might have modified a motor from an SA-2 surface-to-air missile, which North Korea reportedly produces as the HJ-2, or may have used an engine from an SS-21 SCARAB, which North Korea reportedly acquired for reverse engineering.(57) . . . .

TAEPO DONG 2

The Taepo Dong 2's range would enable North Korea to strike portions of Alaska and Hawaii with a payload of several hundred kilograms (enough for an early generation nuclear weapon), and could deliver a lighter weapon to the western half of the United States. Some analysts even suggest that the size of the Taepo Dong 2 allows space for enough liquid fuel to carry a missile almost 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles) if the construction materials and warhead were sufficiently light.(58) With such range, the missile could reach most of the United States. Multiple-stage technology would enable the missile to travel further or to carry a larger payload. It is estimated that a three-stage Taepo Dong 2 could deliver a payload of several hundred kilograms, equivalent to a first generation nuclear weapon, anywhere in the United States.(59)"

[Calpernia]

Where is that from WCG?

[FairOpinion]

Could you please post the link to the excerpt in your post 631?

This sounds like some real evidence about where Iraq' WMD went.

[LayoutGuru2]

I was only able to get videos 1, 2 and 4. The site hosting the files appears to be unresponsive now. The .pdf file is nice, but I would prefer to view the actual videos. From what I have seen this is just a slick recruitment production.

[FairOpinion]

"Maybe it's just me, but the tone of the thread seems different (more combative and hostile) the past couple of days than the other thousands of posts over the past three months"

---

I think it changed -- not just the past few days, but maybe a week or two. Earlier it was more a collaborative thread for discussion and sharing information.

Now it seems to have become more combattive, as you say, to put it mildly. It's a shame, because this is the beginning of the end of an interesting thread, as the many of the very people, who contributed good information fade away.

[jerseygirl]

I noticed a bit of that as well. I just try to scroll through those comments to get to the shared info and concerns.

[Calpernia]

>>>The communists are no longer a major factor in Russia.

I posted a few articles from the Ukraine that says communism is a major factor. Did you read them?

[WestCoastGal]

See Post 637

[Calpernia]

I got the URL. Thank you. I posted as I worked my way down the thread ;)

[KylaStarr]

I was just wondering if any of you had followed the story on the "mystery truck" that was being searched by the FBI and GBI, down in Douglas, Georgia. I haven't seen anymore about it on the thread but I could have missed it.

There was another thread on this but it has not had any new information since yesterday either.

Here's a link to the story:
http://www.walb.com/Global/story.asp?S=1633551&nav=5kZPKfGk

I've just been curious about it and waiting to see if this will be another incident that we hear a quick blurb about and then just disappears.

[Sean Osborne Lomax]

"In addition to dropping Russia, I'm dropping this too."

I see.... Well so much for dialog. I have been giving you factual evdience which is 180 degrees out of phase with your positions regarding the threat posed by Mother Russia to the United States.

You have addressed nor effectively offered a single valid counter-point. In fact your posts to this point have avoided my specific point completely. You chose instead to keep regurgitating the same old DPRK being the major threat. That's exactly what the Ruskies or the Chicoms would have us believe. Hmmmmm...

"If you knew me, you would be aghast at the absurdity of it."

Somehow I doubt that. You see, the difference between us is obvious. I have no need to hide behind an internet alias. I do not begrudge others who do use them, but with me what you see is what you get. I am standing in plain sight. I do not mince words; I am not a diplomat. Until circumstances dictate otherwise Mother Russia is my 25-meter target, the North Korean's are a 2500-meter target.

Anyone who tries to tell me that Russia is not the primary threat facing this nation will recieve a fusillade of contrary facts in response, and I don't care if you're the President himself.

Don't take it personal. It's not. But if you are going to take a public postition you had better be able to back it up with hard facts that stand the test of a hard challenge.

Would you expect anything less from an American soldier?

[FairOpinion]

FWIW, I think your posts and opinions are well thought out, you also present facts, and I agree with most of it.

I hope you won't leave, continue to contribute and eventually people will settle down. If not, you can still contribute to other threads, where terrorism and foreign policy issues are being discussed -- I think you have valuable insights to contribute.

I think Russia used to use proxies against us, but recently they had decide, which side they want to be on, and it's not on the side of the terrorists.

They are not exactly friends and they may have their doubts about us, so that may be one reason for their exercises, but it could well be a warning to N. Korea as well -- as to which is its primary or secondary purpose, I don't know.

But whatever people think, Putin is not stupid. He knows his country will benefit by joining the West, instead of fighting against it.

People should note, that France and Germany were more opposed to us in the UN -- Russia stayed more neutral.

I have no doubt that Russia did have strong relations with Saddam, but they had an epiphany, just like Kaddafi and reassessed their positions.

This is a complex world, and people need to look at the global picture, not have knee jerk reactions.

[Rushmore Rocks]

ditto

[Cindy]

OPINION: Old stuff. Same old stuff.

This "daleel" has cut and pasted a graphic from an AQ page that
keeps popping up on the 'net with basically old content. They like
to use "free" pages. Goes to show how theiir budget is these days.

I see that this "daleel" does spell about the same as his low-level
AQ or wannabe buddies.

[jerseygirl]

Daleel update (2/7) from It's Happening/ Rant and Rave.

here are the new links to download the new tape
as i promissed some people here to bring them the latest downloading links after we post them here they are,

http://www.dhia-studios.com/media/v...aad/riyaadh1.rm

http://www.dhia-studios.com/media/v...aad/riyaadh2.rm

http://www.dhia-studios.com/media/v...aad/riyaadh3.rm

http://www.dhia-studios.com/media/v...aad/riyaadh4.rm

http://www.dhia-studios.com/media/v...aad/riyaadh5.rm

http://www.dhia-studios.com/media/v...aad/riyaadh6.rm

these are new links i hope they will stay online for some time and all of you will be able to download the tape.

may god protect the mojahideen

alaah akbaar
Daleel_almojahid


__________________
alaaah akbaar
Daleel_Almojahid



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02-07-2004 07:31 PM

[The Mayor]

there all dead..

[FairOpinion]

I didn't see your articles about communism being a major factor, but I believe they said that.

I think "communism" is being used as a catch-all word. The "communists" didn't really believe in the communist ideas any more than you or I, they merely used that as convenient propaganda to stay in power. Most "communist" leaders were and are just power hungry politicians, would-be dictators.

Putin used to be a communist, and having worked in the KGB, he is no "genle soul", but he is also very smart, and knows that communism, as a system, is dead, as in DEAD, and he is balancing a lot of different things and agendas of various people in Russia.

[FairOpinion]

I didn't see the article about the mystery truck.

Thanks for posting it.

If you happen to see an update, please post it as well.

[Cindy]

You summed it up well.
Granted it's hard to get a description when bullets are being sprayed about, but if one can tell a guy is in his 20's, more details should be available.

As for the BASF guard, he turned himself in on his warrant and as far as I can determine via news accounts; the shooting incident is still under investigation.