[NothingMan]

"A review of the "facts" you accept would appear to be in order, and I offer my assistance to you in any way I can."


I think I can manage the factual review. Thanks.

Maybe it's just me, but the tone of the thread seems different (more combative and hostile) the past couple of days than the other thousands of posts over the past three months. I referenced the Congressional North Korean Advisory Group already. I went through and cut and paste the relevant excepts from the entire report.

In addition to dropping Russia, I'm dropping this too. I come to this thread to see the latest AQ (or wannabees) threats/diatribes/pronouncements. I don't come here to be lectured on Russia or North Korea. If you knew me, you would be aghast at the absurdity of it.

I am trying to recall if anyone else has been "called out" like I have (three times on Russia and now on North Korea) even though I have made several *long* posts defending my opinions. Disagree if you wish. No problem. But this is (as one poster warned me when I first posted a couple days ago) a lot of spinning and baiting and sparring. It's not dialogue.

(from post 6535 of the last thread)

Oh brother!!!
You believe this claptrap????
Why are you so eager to defend Mother Russia, eh comrade?
Shto eta? (Russian for "What's this?")

I don't have anything to prove.

I tried to overlook the nonsense. Challenging my patriotism is beneath contempt and was unworthy of a response. I had hoped the negativity and the baiting were temporary, but it has dragged into this thread.

I'll go back to "lurking", if even that.

I *really* don't have time to get sucked into virtual debates. It was my mistake for posting in the first place. So I blame myself.

But for the most part, the rest of you guys are good folks and pretty sharp.

Keep fighting the good fight.

For anyone interested in a congressional report from *five* years ago . . .

Members of the Speaker's North Korea Advisory Group (1999)

Rep. Benjamin A. Gilman, NY
Chairman, North Korea Advisory Group and Chairman, Committee on International Relations
Rep. Doug Bereuter, NE
Chairman, Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific
Rep. Sonny Callahan, AL
Chairman, Subcommittee on Foreign Operations
Rep. Christopher Cox, CA
Chairman, Republican Policy Committee
Rep. Tillie K. Fowler, GA
Vice Chair, Republican Conference
Rep. Porter J. Goss, FL
Chairman, Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
Rep. Joe Knollenberg, MI
Member of the Subcommittee on Foreign Operations
Rep. Floyd Spence, SC
Chairman, Committee on Armed Services
Rep. Curt Weldon, PA
Chairman, Subcommittee on Military Research and Development

(snip)

". . .North Korea's WMD programs pose a major threat to the United States and its allies. This threat has advanced considerably over the past five years, particularly with the enhancement of North Korea's missile capabilities. There is significant evidence that undeclared nuclear weapons development activity continues, including efforts to acquire uranium enrichment technologies and recent nuclear-related high explosive tests. This means that the United States cannot discount the possibility that North Korea could produce additional nuclear weapons outside of the constraints imposed by the 1994 Agreed Framework. In the last five years, North Korea's missile capabilities have improved dramatically. North Korea has produced, deployed and exported missiles to Iran and Pakistan, launched a three-stage missile (Taepo Dong 1), and continues to develop a larger and more powerful missile (Taepo Dong 2). Unlike five years ago, North Korea can now strike the United States with a missile that could deliver high explosive, chemical, biological, or possibly nuclear weapons. Currently, the United States is unable to defend against this threat. The progress that North Korea has made over the past five years in improving its missile capabilities, its record as a major proliferator of ballistic missiles and missile technology, combined with its development activities on nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, ranks North Korea with Russia and China as one of the greatest missile proliferation threats in the world. . . .

Unlike five years ago, North Korea can now strike the United States with a missile that could deliver high explosive, chemical, biological, or possibly nuclear weapons. The United States currently is unable to defend against this threat. . . .

In the last five years, North Korea has made significant progress in improving its missile capabilities. It has produced, deployed and exported missiles to Iran and Pakistan, launched a three-stage missile (Taepo Dong 1), and continues to develop a larger and more powerful longer-range missile (Taepo Dong 2). . . .

North Korea attempted to orbit a small satellite using the Taepo Dong 1 in August 1998, but the third stage failed during powered flight; other aspects of the flight, including stage separation, appear to have been successful.

If it had an operable third-stage and a reentry vehicle capable of surviving ICBM flight, North Korea could now strike the continental United States with a Taepo Dong 1. In such a case, about two-thirds of the payload mass would be required for the reentry vehicle structure. The remaining mass is probably too light for an early generation nuclear weapon, but could strike a target in the United States with a biological or chemical warhead. . . .

A two-stage Taepo Dong 2 could deliver a payload of several hundred kilograms (enough for an early generation nuclear weapon) to Alaska or Hawaii, and could deliver a lighter weapon to the western half of the continental United States.
A three-stage Taepo Dong 2 could deliver a payload of several hundred kilograms, an early generation nuclear weapon, anywhere in the United States. . . .

This report specifically addresses the threat North Korea poses to the United States security over the past five years. Given the extraordinary progress made by North Korea in enhancing its missile capabilities in that time-frame, it is reasonable to conclude that the missile threat facing the United States will only increase, and probably dramatically so, over the next five to ten years, absent effective policy. This is particularly true if one considers those factors which were heavily discounted in the 1995 NIE regarding the ballistic missile threat facing the United States. Specifically, the 1995 NIE was criticized, among other reasons, for: basing its assessment on the vulnerability of only the United States' 48 contiguous states; for underestimating the time it would take a rogue nation to develop a long-range ballistic missile; for downplaying the impact of foreign assistance on the missile programs; for undervaluing the effect of space launch vehicle (SLV) development on missile proliferation; for being unrealistic about the potential sale of SLVs, and for dismissing the threat of an accidental or unauthorized ballistic missile launch.(43) Each of these factors has particular relevance for North Korea's missile programs. The Rumsfeld Commission, formally know as the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, more fully analyzed these factors. The Commission also made recommendations for the Intelligence Community to consider as it prepared to issue its next ballistic missile threat assessment (the 1999 NIE, which was released in September 1999).(44) . . . .

TAEPO DONG 1

North Korea is in the process of developing longer-range ballistic missiles. The two-stage Taepo Dong 1 has a range of 1,500-2,000 km (930-1,240 miles) and at one point was expected to enter production in 1995. On August 31, 1998, North Korea used a Taepo Dong 1 with an additional solid-fuel third stage in an attempt to place a small satellite into orbit. Apparently, the first stage (based on the No Dong missile motor) and the second stage (based on the SCUD C motor) operated as planned, and the third stage separated and carried the payload a distance before becoming disabled. The test demonstrated North Korea's ability to integrate numerous components in building a multi-stage missile, building a guidance package, and using both liquid and solid fuel. The test did not demonstrate a capability to construct a reentry vehicle that could survive atmospheric reentry at the speed of an ICBM, nor did it show the capacity to build a fully operational solid-fuel third stage.(54)

DoD estimated that the Taepo Dong 1, with a properly functioning third stage, could have a range of 3,850-5,600 km (2,400-3,500 miles), enough to reach Alaska and Hawaii. One expert predicted that the Taepo Dong 1 with a third stage could reach Alaska and Hawaii with a small nuclear warhead, and could reach much of the continental United States with a lighter warhead, such as a biological or chemical weapon.(55) The 1999 National Intelligence Council estimate indicated that if the Taepo Dong 1 had a properly functioning third stage and a survivable reentry vehicle, it could strike targets in the United States with sufficient size for a chemical or biological weapon, but not for an early-generation nuclear weapon.(56) It is not known where North Korea acquired the solid fuel third stage for the August 1998 test, but there are several possibilities. David Wright of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) said the solid fuel motor could have been acquired from Pakistan, which may have copied it from a French missile motor, or North Korea may have used, or copied, one stage of the Chinese M-11 short-range ballistic missile. Pakistan reportedly received M-11 missiles, components, and production technology from China. Iran received solid missile technology from Russia, and perhaps China, and may have passed it to North Korea in return for SCUD and No Dong missiles and technology. Another possibility is that North Korea might have modified a motor from an SA-2 surface-to-air missile, which North Korea reportedly produces as the HJ-2, or may have used an engine from an SS-21 SCARAB, which North Korea reportedly acquired for reverse engineering.(57) . . . .

TAEPO DONG 2

The Taepo Dong 2's range would enable North Korea to strike portions of Alaska and Hawaii with a payload of several hundred kilograms (enough for an early generation nuclear weapon), and could deliver a lighter weapon to the western half of the United States. Some analysts even suggest that the size of the Taepo Dong 2 allows space for enough liquid fuel to carry a missile almost 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles) if the construction materials and warhead were sufficiently light.(58) With such range, the missile could reach most of the United States. Multiple-stage technology would enable the missile to travel further or to carry a larger payload. It is estimated that a three-stage Taepo Dong 2 could deliver a payload of several hundred kilograms, equivalent to a first generation nuclear weapon, anywhere in the United States.(59)"

[FairOpinion]

"Maybe it's just me, but the tone of the thread seems different (more combative and hostile) the past couple of days than the other thousands of posts over the past three months"

---

I think it changed -- not just the past few days, but maybe a week or two. Earlier it was more a collaborative thread for discussion and sharing information.

Now it seems to have become more combattive, as you say, to put it mildly. It's a shame, because this is the beginning of the end of an interesting thread, as the many of the very people, who contributed good information fade away.

[Sean Osborne Lomax]

"In addition to dropping Russia, I'm dropping this too."

I see.... Well so much for dialog. I have been giving you factual evdience which is 180 degrees out of phase with your positions regarding the threat posed by Mother Russia to the United States.

You have addressed nor effectively offered a single valid counter-point. In fact your posts to this point have avoided my specific point completely. You chose instead to keep regurgitating the same old DPRK being the major threat. That's exactly what the Ruskies or the Chicoms would have us believe. Hmmmmm...

"If you knew me, you would be aghast at the absurdity of it."

Somehow I doubt that. You see, the difference between us is obvious. I have no need to hide behind an internet alias. I do not begrudge others who do use them, but with me what you see is what you get. I am standing in plain sight. I do not mince words; I am not a diplomat. Until circumstances dictate otherwise Mother Russia is my 25-meter target, the North Korean's are a 2500-meter target.

Anyone who tries to tell me that Russia is not the primary threat facing this nation will recieve a fusillade of contrary facts in response, and I don't care if you're the President himself.

Don't take it personal. It's not. But if you are going to take a public postition you had better be able to back it up with hard facts that stand the test of a hard challenge.

Would you expect anything less from an American soldier?

[FairOpinion]

FWIW, I think your posts and opinions are well thought out, you also present facts, and I agree with most of it.

I hope you won't leave, continue to contribute and eventually people will settle down. If not, you can still contribute to other threads, where terrorism and foreign policy issues are being discussed -- I think you have valuable insights to contribute.

I think Russia used to use proxies against us, but recently they had decide, which side they want to be on, and it's not on the side of the terrorists.

They are not exactly friends and they may have their doubts about us, so that may be one reason for their exercises, but it could well be a warning to N. Korea as well -- as to which is its primary or secondary purpose, I don't know.

But whatever people think, Putin is not stupid. He knows his country will benefit by joining the West, instead of fighting against it.

People should note, that France and Germany were more opposed to us in the UN -- Russia stayed more neutral.

I have no doubt that Russia did have strong relations with Saddam, but they had an epiphany, just like Kaddafi and reassessed their positions.

This is a complex world, and people need to look at the global picture, not have knee jerk reactions.

[Nemo1USA]

I have no idea who you are, or you me. I have but 1 nick.

My only question to you is.

Why do you not mention the gaining clarity of joining countries. I know why it is occurring, but this effort to diffuse people attention from it happening is interesting.

[swarthyguy]

>>Maybe it's just me, but the tone of the thread seems different (more combative and hostile)

Agreed. And sacred cows exist in many places besides India.

[labolarueda]

Please don't leave us.

[JustPiper]

Sean has and is still being called out...so you are not the first -g-

Hope this helps your case

NK

Government type:
authoritarian socialist; one-man dictatorship {{IMO very dangerous}}

North Korea's long-range missile development and research into nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and massive conventional armed forces {{{are of major concern to the international community.}}} In December 2002, North Korea repudiated a 1994 agreement that shut down its nuclear reactors and expelled UN monitors, further raising fears it would produce nuclear weapons.

Military manpower - availability:
males age 15-49: 6,103,615 (2003 est.)
Military manpower - fit for military service:
males age 15-49: 3,654,223 (2003 est.)

Disputes - international:

with China, certain islands in Yalu and Tumen rivers are in uncontested dispute; a section of boundary around Paektu-san (mountain) is indefinite; China objects to illegal migration of North Koreans into northern China; Military Demarcation Line within the 4-km wide Demilitarized Zone has separated North from South Korea since 1953

Legal system:

based on German civil law system with Japanese influences and Communist legal theory; no judicial review of legislative acts; has not accepted compulsory ICJ jurisdiction

Executive branch:

chief of state: KIM Chong-il {{A TOTAL Fruit-Loop!}}}
(since NA July 1994); note - on 3 September 2003, KIM Chong-il was reelected Chairman of the National Defense Commission, a position accorded the nation's "highest administrative authority"; KIM Yong-nam was reelected President of the Supreme People's Assembly Presidium and given the responsibility of representing the state and receiving diplomatic credentials

elections: premier elected by the Supreme People's Assembly; election last held NA September 1998 (next to be held NA)

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/kn.html#Intro

[JustPiper]

Posted 1/15/2004
USA Today
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2003-01-10-nkorea-arms-development_x.htm

North Korea's weapons development

A timeline on nuclear weapons development in North Korea:

•1993: North Korea shocks the world by saying it will quit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, but it later suspends its withdrawal.

•1994: North Korea and U.S. sign nuclear agreement in Geneva. North Korea pledges to freeze and eventually dismantle its nuclear weapons program in exchange for international aid to build two power-producing nuclear reactors.

•August 1998: North Korea fires a multistage rocket that flies over Japan and lands in the Pacific Ocean, proving the Koreans can strike any part of Japan's territory.

•May 1999: Former Defense Secretary William Perry visits North Korea and delivers a U.S. disarmament proposal during four days of talks.

•September 1999: North Korea pledges to freeze testing of long-range missiles for the duration of negotiations to improve relations.

•Sept. 17, 1999: President Clinton agrees to the first significant easing of economic sanctions against North Korea since the Korean War ended in 1953.

•December 1999: A U.S.-led international consortium signs a $4.6 billion contract to build two safer, Western-developed light-water nuclear reactors in North Korea.

•July 2000: North Korea renews its threat to restart its nuclear program if Washington does not compensate for the loss of electricity caused by delays in building nuclear power plants.

•June 2001: North Korea warns it will reconsider its moratorium on missile tests if the Bush administration doesn't resume contacts aimed at normalizing relations.

•July 2001: State Department reports North Korea is going ahead with development of its long-range missile. A senior Bush administration official says North Korea has conducted an engine test of the Taepodong-1 missile.

•December 2001: President Bush warns Iraq and North Korea that they would be "held accountable" if they developed weapons of mass destruction "that will be used to terrorize nations."

•Jan. 29, 2002: Bush labels North Korea, Iran and Iraq an "axis of evil" in his State of the Union address. "By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger," he says.

•Oct. 4: North Korean officials tell visiting U.S. delegation that the country has a second covert nuclear weapons program in violation of the 1994 agreement — a program using enriched uranium.

•Oct. 16: U.S. officials publicly reveal discovery of North Korea's nuclear weapons program.

•Oct. 26: Bush, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and South Korean President Kim Dae-jung meet on the sidelines of an Asian-Pacific regional summit in Mexico and agree to seek a peaceful settlement to the North's nuclear issue.

•Nov. 11: The U.S. and its key Asian allies — Japan and South Korea — decide to halt oil supplies to North Korea promised under the 1994 deal.

•Dec. 12: North Korea announces that it is reactivating nuclear facilities at Yongbyon that were frozen under a 1994 deal with the United States.

•Dec. 13: North Korea asks the U.N. nuclear watchdog to remove monitoring seals and cameras from its nuclear facilities.

•Dec. 14: The U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency urges North Korea to retract its decision to reactivate its nuclear facilities and abide by its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

•Dec. 21: North Korea begins removing monitoring seals and cameras from its nuclear facilities

•Jan. 10, 2003: North Korea says it will withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

•Jan. 4, 2004: North Korean officials tell an unofficial delegation of U.S. experts visiting the country they are prepared to "freeze" its nuclear program to resolve any crisis. Korean officials had shown the visiting Americans what they termed its "nuclear deterrent."

•Jan. 15, 2004: Former State Department official Charles Pritchard, who was in the delegation that visited North Korea, said a Korean official told him that American sluggishness in attempts to end the nuclear impasse with North Korea will not serve Washington's interests because it will only enable Pyongyang to expand its nuclear arsenal.

•Jan. 20, 2004: Siegfried Hecker, former head of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, plans to testify publicly about the trip to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

[JustPiper]

CHAPTER ONE: North Korean Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs

Do the North Korean weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs pose a greater threat to U.S. security than five years ago?

North Korea's WMD programs pose a major threat to the United States and its allies. This threat has advanced considerably over the past five years, particularly with the enhancement of North Korea's missile capabilities. There is significant evidence that undeclared nuclear weapons development activity continues, including efforts to acquire uranium enrichment technologies and recent nuclear-related high explosive tests. This means that the United States cannot discount the possibility that North Korea could produce additional nuclear weapons outside of the constraints imposed by the 1994 Agreed Framework.

http://russia.shaps.hawaii.edu/security/nkag/report-1.html

Today, North Korea ranks with Russia and China as one of the greatest missile threats in the world due to: the progress made over the past five years in improving its missile capabilities; its record as a leading proliferator of ballistic missiles and missile technology; and its development of high explosive, chemical, biological, and possibly nuclear weapons.

Key Findings

Unlike five years ago, North Korea can now strike the United States with a missile that could deliver high explosive, chemical, biological, or possibly nuclear weapons. The United States currently is unable to defend against this threat.

According to the 1999 ballistic missile National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), "the proliferation of medium-range ballistic missiles - driven primarily by North Korean No Dong sales - has created an immediate, serious and growing threat to U.S. forces, interests, and allies, and has significantly altered the strategic balances in the Middle East and Africa."(38)North Korean No Dong transfers have all occurred within the last five years.
In the last five years, North Korea has made significant progress in improving its missile capabilities. It has produced, deployed and exported missiles to Iran and Pakistan, launched a three-stage missile (Taepo Dong 1), and continues to develop a larger and more powerful longer-range missile (Taepo Dong 2).

[Labyrinthos]

I'm in the process of catching up on this thread. I enjoy your posts. Don't let one or two knowitall, wannabe spooks discourage you from stating your views.