Dems May Be In For Brokered Convention [Hilllaaarreeee...]

The New York Post ^ | January 22, 2004 | DEBORAH ORIN

[johnny7]

NASHUA, N.H. - The Dean Debacle - Howard Dean's post-Iowa primal shriek meltdown - has Democrats buzzing that there's now a real prospect of a long bitter fight for the nomination that isn't settled until the convention.

Because now, there are four major contenders plus Al Sharpton competing for the nomination - and that could make it very hard for anyone to muster the majority of 2,162 delegates needed to clinch it. All in the thick of it are the down-sliding Dean, Iowa victor John Kerry, runner-up John Edwards and Wesley Clark. While Sharpton has no chance, he appeals to black voters who are a major Democratic force. The problem in getting to a majority is that Democratic Party rules guarantee delegates everywhere to anyone who gets 15 percent of the vote. So Kerry may have "won" Iowa, but he doesn't even get half of the 45 delegates at stake. Right now he's in line for 20, Edwards for 18 and Dean for 7. "If Kerry achieves liftoff and can sell in the South, he's the nominee, but if he doesn't, there's a real chance of a brokered convention," says a Democratic insider.

[johnny7]

...a real convention fight in July for who controls the Democratic Party

OK class... who controls the Democratic Party?

[samtheman]

Why don't they just nominate Sharpton? What's wrong with that idea? Why are they resisting it?

[LS]

Well, ol' Wes is collapsing, and Edwards shows that he can run thrid pretty well. I think Kerry will do pretty well now everywhere except the South, making it a two-way race between the Breck Girl and John efffing Kerry. It will likely end with Edwards agreeing to be the veep.

[governsleastgovernsbest]

All in the thick of it are the down-sliding Dean, Iowa victor John Kerry, runner-up John Edwards and Wesley Clark.

As long as more than two candidates stay in the race, it will be very hard for any one to muster a majority.

I think the article's premise is flawed. I don't believe that after NH, there will be four candidates "in the thick of it." Dean will be totally gone. And Wesley Clark will be hanging by a thread, with a possible third-place finish.

With the revival of Kerry and Edwards, Clark has lost both his claims to fame - as the only viable military man or southerner in the race. So I expect him to be gone too shortly after he loses South Carolina badly.

Prediction: by the week after South Carolina, it will be down to a two-man race - Kerry and Edwards. No brokered convention. No Hillary.

[Loyal Buckeye]

I agree. This whole thing will be over w/i 30 days.

[governsleastgovernsbest]

GMTA - see below.

[thoughtomator]

Agreeing to be whose veep, is the question. It sure won't be John F!@$#in Kerry

[Jim Noble]

Dean is no longer a major contender.

Clark will not be, once he's in the public eye for ten minutes.

The people are not going to elect a trial lawyer with less than one term in the Senate (and no achievements while there) to the Presidency.

Kerry is a done deal. The only way Hillary! can stop him is to destroy him like she did Dean.

There is no scenario any more (if there ever was) that leads to a deadlocked convention.

[InvisibleChurch]

they know they'll get blown out of the water thise year, so the most important spot on the ticket is for VP to get ready for 008; i won't be surprised if they run two or three people this year for VP and skip nominating anyone for president

[nathanbedford]

Nonesense, brokered conventions are historical relics. The modern realities of money and mechanics virtually rule them out.

Unfortunately, Kerry will be nominated now that Dean has imploded. I am standing by my prediction made July 15, on these thresads, Kerry will be nomiinated but will narrowly lose the general.

[CasearianDaoist]

Probably the trouble that they would have finding someone shorter than the Rev. to take the VP slot. Say, how tall is Hillie, anyway?

[LS]

Hillary will not run for pres this year.

1) WAAAY too late to build the organization and raise the money, especially after the nine dwarves have siphoned off millions.

2) She corectly perceives Bush is unbeatable.

3) She MIGHT be willing to be a veep, where she can disclaim responsibility for a loss. But a loss in her first "Super Bowl" would be untenable.

[apillar]

Well I for one would LOVE to see a Hillary / Bush matchup...
I think Bush would win by a larger margin than he would have had Dean not flammed out to soon.

Some on these boards try to paint Hillary as the "ultimate" democrat candidate, some secret weapon that could beat Bush.
I've never understood it personally...

-- Hillary managed to win a senate seat in New York, but even in liberal new york she isn't that popular. She is projected to lose if Guilliani or Pataki run against her in 2006.

-- Even her supporters admit she is not very photogenic and comes across as abrasive and condescending. The only reason she got to where she is was by riding Bills coatails. She simply doesn't have any of his charm. While Bill got away with just about anything because of his "slick willy" ability. Hillary was never as fortunate and consistently had negative ratings while Bill was in the White House.

-- Unlike with potential democrat candidates such as Clark or Edwards, Hillary could write off all the southern states before the campaign even began, her negatives are stratospheric in that region.
That means the only way she could win would be to take ALL of the heavily union mid-west swing states. While the unions would support her, the rank and file tend to be much more conservative and would vote for Bush in droves.

-- Talk about broken glass republicans! Everybody with even a slightly conservative bone in their body will be lined up at the polls 3 hours before they open just for a chance to vote against Hillary. Hillary will bring out the conservative vote in numbers that haven't been seen since Reagan's day's.

[Mr. Bird]

Dean is no longer a major contender

I disagree. He's got more money than anyone else, and that's usually the X-factor when determining viable candidacies. We'll never know the true meaning of Iowa, because they don't report out the first "ballot". It's possible that Dean is much closer to Kerry and/or Edwards than the final Iowa result appears.

As long as Dean has cash, he's a contender.

[MrsEmmaPeel]

Howard Dean's post-Iowa primal shriek meltdown

I have a problem here, help me out. I saw (like many other people) Dean's performance at Iowa over and over again. It didn't appall me. It was exactly what I would expect from him. I guess after all the outrageous statements, the flip-flopping, the extreme anger and bursts of incoherent irrationality, his followers now decide they've had enough?

Why was Iowa any different from any other speech of his? For me, he's always been this way.

[Brandon]

I agree with you. His speech did not surprise or apall me. As someone else commented, he's still got lots of money, an dthe game is far from over. If anything, the Iowa debacle has lowered the bar for Dean in NH. He no longer has to win by double digits -- a narrow victory, or even a close second, would be good enough to keep him in the race -- he'd be the new "comeback kid".

Remember that Dubya lost in NH in '00, and the punditocracy said he was finished. They learned different in SC though. Like that great philosopher, Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over 'till it's over."

[2nd Bn, 11th Mar]

I used to think like this. However, Billy Jeff's being elected TWICE convinced me that there are too many truly ignorant voters.
V/R,

Semper Fi

[rdb3]

[Jim Noble]

Dean is no longer a major contender I disagree

I live in NH and rub shoulders with more than a few Deaniacs.

He is going to lose here, and badly.

Now, after that, what is he going to do to recover? Win South Carolina?

[C210N]

I don't think there was anything wrong specifically with Dean's "I Have A Scream". Dean is like the center piece on a Ouija board. With all these hands (Press, pundits, voters, etc) mentally "pushing" this center piece off the board, it just didn't happen till the catalyst of the shriek.