Clark will not be, once he's in the public eye for ten minutes.
The people are not going to elect a trial lawyer with less than one term in the Senate (and no achievements while there) to the Presidency.
Kerry is a done deal. The only way Hillary! can stop him is to destroy him like she did Dean.
There is no scenario any more (if there ever was) that leads to a deadlocked convention.
I disagree. He's got more money than anyone else, and that's usually the X-factor when determining viable candidacies. We'll never know the true meaning of Iowa, because they don't report out the first "ballot". It's possible that Dean is much closer to Kerry and/or Edwards than the final Iowa result appears.
As long as Dean has cash, he's a contender.
In short, I think you overestimate Kerry... underestimate Hillary.
I'm not quite ready to write him off just yet. His $40 million will at least allow him to compete in all of the primaries, if he wants to keep going. He could probably still do well in places like NY and CA, which carry a lot of delegates. He may not win many primaries, but he should get a large enough percentage to earn delegates and keep others from clinching the nomination. And if someone else stumbles, maybe he could still recover.
That is the percentage of the 3500 available delegates it takes to acquire a clear nominating majority....
Now, look at the money factor, that tells you how long someone can stay in the race.
Dean,Kerry,Edwierd,and Clark, all have enough money to stay in the race till the end of march, when the majority of delegates are voted out....
Now Look at the 4 horses...Two Northeastern liberals, and two Southerners...Enough to keep any one person from asserting a regional dominance.
And like the article said, If Kerry achieves liftoff and can sell in the South, he's the nominee, but if he doesn't, there's a real chance of a brokered convention," says a Democratic insider......
Do the math, who really controls the money in the DNC? Who is it that Put this Accelerated Schedule in Place ????
The convention is July 26 ~ July 29, 2004, with a 12 week window to the Gen. Election...
Sounds like Hillary!ous to the rescue to me.
There is no scenario any more (if there ever was) that leads to a deadlocked convention."
I am still predicting one of two scenarios:
1. A "deadlocked" convention with Hillary "drafted" and "reluctantly" accepting;
2. Kerry or some other nonentity "wins the nomination" and selects Hillary as his V.P. If elected, he suffers an unfortunate accident early in his presidency (i.e., the wings of AF-1 mysteriously fall off, or somebody slips thallium into his soup)...
--Boris