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Model projects 91% chance Trump will get re-elected
Foxbusiness.com ^
| July 2nd, 2020
| Helmut Norpoth
Posted on 07/03/2020 7:03:22 PM PDT by entropy12
Jul 02, 202007:49 Model projects 91% chance Trump will get re-elected Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth says the battleground state polls in 2016 were 'way off' and that his model has correctly predicted 24 out of 26 of the past presidential elections.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxbusiness.com ...
TOPICS: Campaign News; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2020election; dobbs; election; election2016; election2020; helmutnorpoth; norpoth; primarymodel; stonybrook; stonybrooku; trump
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Professor Norpoth's model ignores polls. Instead the model uses data from primary elections. This model correctly predicted Trump win in 2016 and has predicted the correct winner in 24/26 presidential elections.
1
posted on
07/03/2020 7:03:22 PM PDT
by
entropy12
To: entropy12
Unless the Gabby gambit of her naming Trump and some minor Democrats as child predators sticks. She’s lying of course, but that doesn’t matter.
2
posted on
07/03/2020 7:06:19 PM PDT
by
Jonty30
(What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
To: entropy12
Trump’s 130000 in New Hampshire beat Obama’s 2012 40,000 by quite a bit.
3
posted on
07/03/2020 7:06:43 PM PDT
by
struggle
To: Jonty30
4
posted on
07/03/2020 7:08:27 PM PDT
by
entropy12
(covid-19 separates the fearful from the freedom loving! If I am not afraid, no one should be.)
To: entropy12
“his model has correctly predicted 24 out of 26 of the past presidential elections.”
I doubt that the model is over 104 years old. Perhaps the model produces results consistent with those of 24 out of 26 elections. Not at all the same thing.
To: struggle
Yes, it is a better indicator of proven actual voter energy than polling a few hundred registered voters and asking them push-pull questions.
6
posted on
07/03/2020 7:10:44 PM PDT
by
entropy12
(covid-19 separates the fearful from the freedom loving! If I am not afraid, no one should be.)
To: entropy12
7
posted on
07/03/2020 7:11:27 PM PDT
by
Jonty30
(What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
To: rightwingcrazy
It is not the professor’s personal model. It was something his university started 100+ years ago.
8
posted on
07/03/2020 7:12:08 PM PDT
by
entropy12
(covid-19 separates the fearful from the freedom loving! If I am not afraid, no one should be.)
To: Jonty30
Oh I get it! Yes, that is the only chance she gets off with a slap on the hand.
9
posted on
07/03/2020 7:13:05 PM PDT
by
entropy12
(covid-19 separates the fearful from the freedom loving! If I am not afraid, no one should be.)
To: entropy12
Okay pearl clutches, time to start screeching “Oh no! Please don’t say Trump is a big favorite to win. That will cause Trump supporters to stay home saying “I don’t have to vote he will win anyway!” I know you’re out there start clutching your pearls.
10
posted on
07/03/2020 7:14:05 PM PDT
by
jmaroneps37
(Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies)
To: entropy12
I think it is more than just no prison tune. She doesn’t want to hang for her crimes.
11
posted on
07/03/2020 7:14:18 PM PDT
by
Jonty30
(What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
To: entropy12
As the gal in Zero Dark Thirty said, “I know you guys don’t like absolutes, but it’s 100%.”
12
posted on
07/03/2020 7:18:08 PM PDT
by
Jim W N
(MAGA by restoring the Gospel of the Grace of Christ and our Free Constitutional Republic!)
To: jmaroneps37
LOL....yes those pearl clutchers are scampering through their drawers right now looking for them.
13
posted on
07/03/2020 7:21:30 PM PDT
by
entropy12
(covid-19 separates the fearful from the freedom loving! If I am not afraid, no one should be.)
To: entropy12
all polls taken during the lockdown are not to be trusted. Think of who is most likely to be home ? those who are most scared.. ie. liberals.
To: entropy12
Model projects 91% win for Trump
Thnx Melania!
15
posted on
07/03/2020 7:26:42 PM PDT
by
Vendome
(I've Gotta Be Me https://youtu.be/wH-pk2vZG2M)
To: TexasFreeper2009
I for one never answer my phone, if the caller is not on my contact list and if I do not recognize the caller.
What is the last someone called you to do YOU a favor or send you a check? Almost never! It is either a unsolicited sales call or wrong number dialed.
16
posted on
07/03/2020 7:33:09 PM PDT
by
entropy12
(covid-19 separates the fearful from the freedom loving! If I am not afraid, no one should be.)
To: entropy12
I don’t see any pictures of models. This thread sucks, I want a refund.
17
posted on
07/03/2020 7:34:47 PM PDT
by
Made In The USA
(Next thing you know, 'ol Jed's a millionaire)
To: entropy12
“Model projects 91% chance Trump will get re-elected”
unlikely given that biden is eleventy-ninetenth percent ahead in 1,200 polls in all 57 states ...
18
posted on
07/03/2020 7:37:17 PM PDT
by
catnipman
(Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
To: jmaroneps37
Better then you jerks claiming we’d win the house by adding ten seats in 2018. Unforgivable and you’ve earned the untrustworthy title.
19
posted on
07/03/2020 7:39:30 PM PDT
by
napscoordinator
(Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016)
To: entropy12
Democrats will soon be protesting against that ‘model’. Can’t have anything get in the way of their models and polls.
20
posted on
07/03/2020 7:45:37 PM PDT
by
adorno
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