Here’s The Math On Why Obsessing Over The Florida GOP Primary Makes No Sense

The Federalist ^ | March 9, 2016 | Sean Davis

[2ndDivisionVet]

Donald Trump can still be beaten if he wins Florida. But there's no way to beat him if Republicans sacrifice 259 delegates for a tiny chance at winning Florida.

This is the kind of concrete prediction that comes back to haunt pundits, but I'm going to make it anyway (and if I'm wrong, nobody will be happier about it than me): Donald Trump is going to win Florida, and there's nothing Marco Rubio or anyone else can do about it.

The collective obsession with Florida is understandable. It's a purple state with a lot of votes and a lot of influence. Florida was responsible for all the craziness surrounding the 2000 election. It got called for then-Vice President Al Gore, which led to the networks calling the whole election for Gore, which then led to them dramatically retracting both calls when it turned out that George W. Bush actually won the most votes in Florida. During the 2012 primary, Mitt Romney's victory in Florida after losing Iowa and South Carolina gave him the momentum he needed to eventually clinch the nomination.

Florida's important. But it's not that important, especially not in the 2016 Republican primary. Yes, it's winner-take-all. Yes, it controls 99 delegates. But it's not that important. To understand why, we just need to look at the current delegate picture in the primary.

There are a total of 2,472 delegates at stake. The winner must win 1,237 of them. As of today, Donald Trump is not even close to that. He's not even close to half that amount. Trump has won 44 percent of delegates pledged so far, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has won 34 percent, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has won 15 percent, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich has won 5 percent....

[xzins]

They agree with me. They aren’t looking at Cruz specifically, but he is the obvious #2. If he loses flash and Ohio Cruz will need a miracle to win. If he also loses the other big states on Tuesday it is so unlikely mathematically as to be not doable.

Trump knows math. Expect a “deal” between Trump and Rubio.

[spacejunkie2001]

pretty sure one already exists; I saw rubio and trump shake hands but not cruz and trump. could be nothing but the latter 2 ignored each other.

[iontheball]

Now they’re down to this. Everything else is in the crapper. How long do you think they can massage, manipulate and deny?

[scrabblehack]

Clearly if Trump loses both FL and OH, a brokered convention is likely.

Primaries are not independent events. So while there’s not a huge difference between 48% (if he wins both) and 52% (if he wins only OH), winning one primary builds the case for winning the next one.

[SubMareener]

“If Trump wins Ohio and Florida (165 delegates), he’ll still need to win 48 percent of the remaining delegates, and to date he’s won only 44 percent of them. Winning Florida helps Trump, yes, but not all that much, and not nearly as much as winning four of the other March 15 states would help him. This fact is why the Florida focus is so short-sighted.”

Sounds reasonable to me! Still don’t understand why President Romney isn’t running for reelection. ;-)

[icwhatudo]

Saw just the opposite at start of debate. trump and cruz shook hands but Rubio and Trump did not. Were you referring to the beginning of the debate, or the end of the debate? I did not see the end

[spacejunkie2001]

okay, good. I saw it towards the middle or end at the beginning of one of their debates. I missed the very beginning. Thanks for the clarity.

[spacejunkie2001]

boy, that sentence didn’t make sense...

I saw it at the beginning of one of their BREAKS towards the middle/end of the debate.

[lovesdogs]

Deep in the article the author autopsies TX and a couple of other primaries by assuming that every rubio vote would go to cruz. We have to assume that his flawed logic is applied to future primaries as well.

[spintreebob]

We have a tendency to fight last years war. When Rubio was a contender, taking Florida from Rubio was important.

But now Rubio is not important and hasnt been for weeks. So what used to be imporatn (FL) is no longer any more important than any other state.

Ohio is a Kasich issue. So Illinois with no favorite son is the best test on 3/15. 75% (54) Illinois delegates are winner take all at the congressional district level. Small delegate counts are winner take all at the state level. And there a few super-delegates are chosen later at the state convention.

So Illinois is really 20 different primaries. How many of the 20 primaries will each candidate win?

[Flick Lives]

The only consequence of Rubio’s presence in those races was to deny Cruz a majority of votes: a majority that would’ve given him 100 percent of the delegates in each state. How many delegates? According to my math, in those three states alone, Rubio cost Cruz 76 delegates. Those delegates are the difference between Trump being ahead of everyone by roughly 100 delegates, and Cruz being the delegate leader. And what did Rubio get in return for that? Five delegates. Rubio’s spoiler role gave Donald Trump 71 delegates in those three states just so Rubio could win five delegates.

The author applies wishful static analysis in his thinking. It assumes if Rubio drops out, all Rubio's voters would go to Cruz. It's a sign of desperation when one is plowing back over what shoulda/coulda/woulda happened only if.

[scooby321]

But the big enchilada is March 15, the second Super Tuesday where all of the big states are winner take all: FL, MO, IL, OH, and NC. Trump leads pretty big in all of those. That’s a total of 358 delegates. So there is a pretty good chance that by March 15, Trump will have almost 2/3 of the delegates he needs before he ever goes to the Northeast areas where he will just sweep (another 358 by my count in NY, RI, CT, WV, MD, DE, and PA). Even allowing for a few losses like UT or AZ (and he led the last poll I saw out of AZ), by the time you get to CA (172) Trump is at 1318. And, again, I’m not even looking at states where I haven’t seen polling or where it has not been favorable to Trump, such as MT, ND, UT, OR, WA, AZ, NJ (which he’ll win easy for another 57 delegates), SD, NM, IN, WI, or NE, plus the territories, all of which hold another 372 delegates. Many of these are winner take all, but not all, and even if he loses in many of these, Trump would still walk away with probably 20% at minimum, or another 50-60 delegates, bringing his total to about 1360.

But last I saw, Trump was leading in AZ, WI, OR, WA, IN, so it’s more likely he would come into the convention with closer to 1400 delegates. (please let me know if you have other updates on some of these in-state polls)

[xzins]

At the end trump and Rubio shook and walked off together. It looked like Trump’s hand was on Rubio’s shoulder at one point but it could have been the angle.

[Cap Huff]

“If Trump wins Ohio and Florida (165 delegates), he’ll still need to win 48 percent of the remaining delegates, and to date he’s won only 44 percent of them. . . .”

The author is comparing past results in proportional delegate states with possible results in predominantly winner take all (as I understand it) delegate states. Apples and oranges perhaps. With more winner take all it becomes a bit more possible to do better than the 44% rate from the past.

I have not done a state by state analysis, but I think the author may be making a slight of hand analysis here that is wishful thinking on his part.

[DannyTN]

He is peaking early!
He is done for!
He is not a serious candidate!
He will soon drop out!

[Flick Lives]

I like that math.

[Ancesthntr]

Exactly. Not every Rubio vote will go to Cruz. Ditto for Kasich. Good argument in theory, but it fails in practice because this assumption is wrong.

[djf]

Let me say this:
We'll know on Tuesday.

but I didn't say WHICH Tuesday...

[babble-on]

Yes, I think you are correct. The winner take all and winner take most formulae begin to predominate now, and Trump looks the strongest in most of those states, at least judging by polls.

The question I don’t know the answer to is this. Assume Rubio and Kasich lose their home states and suspend their campaigns. I don’t know that will happen, but it’s reasonable to assume. Will their supporters go to Cruz or will they split between Cruz/Trump/Abstain. That seems to me the biggest analytical unknown at the moment. Anything other than their going primarily to Cruz means Trump continues to roll. Right?