They agree with me. They aren’t looking at Cruz specifically, but he is the obvious #2. If he loses flash and Ohio Cruz will need a miracle to win. If he also loses the other big states on Tuesday it is so unlikely mathematically as to be not doable.
Trump knows math. Expect a “deal” between Trump and Rubio.
Now they’re down to this. Everything else is in the crapper. How long do you think they can massage, manipulate and deny?
Clearly if Trump loses both FL and OH, a brokered convention is likely.
Primaries are not independent events. So while there’s not a huge difference between 48% (if he wins both) and 52% (if he wins only OH), winning one primary builds the case for winning the next one.
“If Trump wins Ohio and Florida (165 delegates), he’ll still need to win 48 percent of the remaining delegates, and to date he’s won only 44 percent of them. Winning Florida helps Trump, yes, but not all that much, and not nearly as much as winning four of the other March 15 states would help him. This fact is why the Florida focus is so short-sighted.”
Sounds reasonable to me! Still don’t understand why President Romney isn’t running for reelection. ;-)
Deep in the article the author autopsies TX and a couple of other primaries by assuming that every rubio vote would go to cruz. We have to assume that his flawed logic is applied to future primaries as well.
We have a tendency to fight last years war. When Rubio was a contender, taking Florida from Rubio was important.
But now Rubio is not important and hasnt been for weeks. So what used to be imporatn (FL) is no longer any more important than any other state.
Ohio is a Kasich issue. So Illinois with no favorite son is the best test on 3/15. 75% (54) Illinois delegates are winner take all at the congressional district level. Small delegate counts are winner take all at the state level. And there a few super-delegates are chosen later at the state convention.
So Illinois is really 20 different primaries. How many of the 20 primaries will each candidate win?
The author applies wishful static analysis in his thinking. It assumes if Rubio drops out, all Rubio's voters would go to Cruz. It's a sign of desperation when one is plowing back over what shoulda/coulda/woulda happened only if.
He is peaking early!
He is done for!
He is not a serious candidate!
He will soon drop out!
But he is closer to it then anyone else and his strongest states are in front of him while his rivals strongest areas will be gone done after Tuesday. Yes Fl does matter a great deal.
Ben Carson endorsed Trump today. Is he a low info voter too?
As of today, soon will be what was tomorrow, and the math will be not twice but 8 times as bad because Trump will have around 800 and no one else will have 400.
If Trump wasn’t getting 100 to 400 percent increases in turnout, the GOPe would have finished him off by now using voting machines, articles about his wives, his dad, his inheritance, gossip about affairs he or his kids were having. Oh it would have worse than it is. But Trump is bring the TURNOUT like nobody would have thought possible.
That...... is the Elephant in the room. And the GOP likes the elephant.