“If Trump wins Ohio and Florida (165 delegates), he’ll still need to win 48 percent of the remaining delegates, and to date he’s won only 44 percent of them. . . .”
The author is comparing past results in proportional delegate states with possible results in predominantly winner take all (as I understand it) delegate states. Apples and oranges perhaps. With more winner take all it becomes a bit more possible to do better than the 44% rate from the past.
I have not done a state by state analysis, but I think the author may be making a slight of hand analysis here that is wishful thinking on his part.
Yes, I think you are correct. The winner take all and winner take most formulae begin to predominate now, and Trump looks the strongest in most of those states, at least judging by polls.
The question I don’t know the answer to is this. Assume Rubio and Kasich lose their home states and suspend their campaigns. I don’t know that will happen, but it’s reasonable to assume. Will their supporters go to Cruz or will they split between Cruz/Trump/Abstain. That seems to me the biggest analytical unknown at the moment. Anything other than their going primarily to Cruz means Trump continues to roll. Right?