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Why I still believe Donald Trump will never be president
Vox ^ | January 30, 2016 | David Roberts

Posted on 01/30/2016 3:24:55 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

As Donald Trump continues his pundit-defying dominance of the national polls, with early primaries just days away, the once-unthinkable has become all too thinkable: Could Trump actually pull this off? Could he become president?

I'm going to stake out a firm answer: no. Absent extreme and unlikely circumstances*, Trump will never be president.

Jack Shafer argues that Trump's success so far is a "black swan" event, an unpredictable and unrepeatable concatenation of improbable circumstances. That sounds about right.

But just because some political rules and conventions have been violated doesn't mean they've all vanished. Just because Trump makes no sense doesn't mean common sense has become worthless. One black swan does not foretell a flock of black swans....

(Excerpt) Read more at vox.com ...


TOPICS: New York; Campaign News; Issues; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: 1stcanadiansenator; 2016election; 2016trump; cnsrvtvtreehouse; d20roll; dailykos; davidroberts; demagogicparty; disbelieve; dungeonsanddragons; election2016; erickerickson; glennbeck; liberal; marklevin; markosmoulitsas; megynkelly; memebuilding; newyork; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; pinkstain; pinkstate; politico; redstate; redstategathering; rogerailes; sundance; tds; trump; vox
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1 posted on 01/30/2016 3:24:55 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Almost 10 more months of negativity. I don’t think I can handle that much, too depressing.


2 posted on 01/30/2016 3:26:36 PM PST by siamesecats (God closes one door, and opens another, to protect us.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Is this the guy who is in charge of telling us who makes sense and who doesn’t? There is a whole lot of us who don’t think the author makes any sense.


3 posted on 01/30/2016 3:26:56 PM PST by euram
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

To even pretend like Trump will not be the likely winner in the primary as well as the general election requires a special kind of self-delusion.


4 posted on 01/30/2016 3:27:31 PM PST by freedomjusticeruleoflaw (Western Civilization- whisper the words, and it will disappear. So let us talk now about rebirth.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Added to the list. Hoisting a Mountain Dew to toast their tears on President Trump’s inauguration day. Both of ‘em.


5 posted on 01/30/2016 3:28:05 PM PST by Byron_the_Aussie (Michelle Obama, The Early Years: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBYGxBlFOSU)
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Could Trump actually pull this off? Could he become president?

I’m going to stake out a firm answer: no.

******************

Well if it gets to that with Trump as the GOP candidate then say
‘hello Madam President’


6 posted on 01/30/2016 3:28:20 PM PST by deport
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

7 posted on 01/30/2016 3:30:51 PM PST by frankenMonkey
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Author: “I’ve been completely wrong about Trump since June, but trust me, I’m right now!”


8 posted on 01/30/2016 3:31:12 PM PST by Hugin ("First thing--get yourself a firearm!" Sheriff Ed Galt, Last Man St anding.)
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To: deport

Trump haters just keep coming


9 posted on 01/30/2016 3:31:18 PM PST by stocksthatgoup (Trump then Cruz for me. I want to see Hillary, Bernie or any demoncrap crushed)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Dude, really? You’re posting crap from VOX now???

I guess you really have scraped the bottom of the barrel.

No! Wait! There’s still salon, slate and huffpo down there to scrape out too.


10 posted on 01/30/2016 3:31:41 PM PST by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

11 posted on 01/30/2016 3:33:34 PM PST by McGruff (Boycott Fox News Channel. I am.)
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To: stocksthatgoup

I am beginning to think the Trump haters are jealous. They cannot figure out why MAR is liking him.


12 posted on 01/30/2016 3:34:20 PM PST by amihow (l)
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To: freedomjusticeruleoflaw

The facts say otherwise. Polls show him doing the worst against Hillary then anybody (including Jebster) and losing in several.

It’s by no means a slam dunk.


13 posted on 01/30/2016 3:35:45 PM PST by traderrob6
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Trump has 40% in polling but 60% negative opinion. Of course, this country loves the Kardashians...


14 posted on 01/30/2016 3:35:57 PM PST by outofsalt ( If history teaches us anything it's that history rarely teaches us anything.)
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To: catnipman

Your compatriots are busy posting anti-Cruz articles from those sources.


15 posted on 01/30/2016 3:36:21 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (TED CRUZ 2016)
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He's our only hope:



I supported McCain..he lost. I supported Romney..he lost. I said to my wife, I'm doing this myself.

Donald Trump
Rally in Sioux Center IA January 23, 2016



click the pic
donate to the most conservative online site!


16 posted on 01/30/2016 3:39:30 PM PST by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: euram

Yeah, but I had to fetch the dictionary for some of the words...that will get the message to a lot of middle class voters.


17 posted on 01/30/2016 3:40:25 PM PST by jennings2004 ("What difference, at this point, does it make!"!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

What if Trump and Cruz cancel each other out. They hit each other harder and harder and pretty soon they are both damaged.


18 posted on 01/30/2016 3:41:59 PM PST by FreedBird
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The author just wanted to say “black swan” and “concatenation.”


19 posted on 01/30/2016 3:42:14 PM PST by Larry Lucido
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To: FreedBird

Cruz has one shot, Iowa. He bombs on Monday night its over. Even if he wins its probably still over. He is not competitive in any other state.


20 posted on 01/30/2016 3:43:32 PM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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