The Polls May Be Underestimating Trump's Support

The Atlantic ^ | December 9, 2015 | Henry Olsen

[2ndDivisionVet]

Donald Trump’s persistent lead in the GOP presidential-preference polls has been a great source of confusion for the chattering classes. But Trump is actually just the latest manifestation of a more global trend: Data suggests the appeal of anti-immigrant policies to working-class voters is much deeper than most American elites want to believe. And because Trump draws the bulk of his support from less-educated, working- and middle-class voters, he may be positioned to do even better still—for now. Polling data from Europe shows that parties with similar voter profiles to Trump’s consistently do better in both online polls and at the ballot box than in live-interview polling. And currently Trump is far ahead online.

Why does this happen? It starts with working-class voters across developed countries being under severe economic pressure because of competition with foreigners at home (immigration) and abroad (EU/trade). They respond to people and parties who tell them this state of affairs isn’t inevitable, and they are often impervious to cries of racism. Their lives are just plain harder than they used to be and working-class voters don’t see elites doing much—or wanting to do much—to make them better. Donald Trump is simply the American version of Nigel Farage, Geert Wilders, and many other European leaders of working-class, anti-immigrant parties who profit from stoking the flames of resentment because there is so much kindling available to light....

[LS]

Two years ago I went to a Portman fundraiser at a big donor’s house. This was when we just elected these guys to stop Obama and they were going to “send up their budget” which Obama would veto. I asked, so WHEN he vetoes it what are your plans to stop him (i.e., govt shutdown). He had the most vacant look, like, “Well of course we don’t actually PLAN to stop him.”

[LS]

This PhD supports Trump as dies one of my PhD colleagues.

[nopardons]

Everything you say is quite true.
OTOH, what I was driving at, is that Trump appeals to/speaks for EVERYONE....not just one group. And the MSM is scared to death to say that! It’s the pigeon holing that drives me crazy!

[dogcaller]

When at the Trump event in Richmond a while back I was sizing up the huge crowd...broad mixture of working class folks, professional types, old and young and in between. Close to half were women with a fair number of black citizens as well. Let the Elites believe the bilge they are spewing...they are dead to us.

[Catsrus]

I think Ted Strickland is running against Portman next year, and I hate to say this, but I think Portman will lose.

[LS]

He’s trailing right now.

[freepertoo]

You are absolutely right. I wasn’t railing at you, just mad at them (you may have been the last post, and I just added my two cents worth!).

[BigEdLB]

[nopardons]

That’s okay, I understood that and I was just railing a bit too, in my reply to you; which wasn’t an answer to your post. :-)

[Georgia Girl 2]

I have believed all along that Trump has more support than is showing in the polls. His victory is going to be yuge!

[CodeToad]

Trump represents America and Americans! No other candidate is doing that. They always have a soft spot for foreigners over Americans.

[AuntB]

” this constant talk about how he is mostly getting the “blue collar” and “less educated” voters is just silly ! “
__________

It’s meant to marginalize his supporters, make them feel stupid. We’ve all seen Hillary/Sanders supporters....the few there are...lol.

Be aware the RNC (NRCC & NRSC) is using Trump supporters to sell them bogus Trump gear knowing it hurts the Trump campaign and they keep the $$$ to fund their rinos.
Donate and purchase gear ONLY from Trump’s authorized website: https://www.donaldjtrump.com/

Oregonians out there, tell Ron Wyden he’s a fool...he’s on the news demanding Trump be shut up! https://www.wyden.senate.gov/contact

[RainMan]

Me:

recent-MBA from top-10 public university program on west coast.

BS in business from well respected east coast private university.

working class: senior marketing consultant at Redmond, WA based software and operating system company and co-owner of a 2 person property investment company (flipping houses). Yes, I work for a living and do not consider myself management in that the only person that I manage is myself.

middle-class: Lost everything, and I mean everything, because of 2008. In fact, that is why I went back and got my MBA. The reason I am a consultant at said software company is because you need to be a foreigner to be a direct employee there. In my group, not a single person that is a direct employee in the group is an American citizen. They are all H-1B's. I started the flipping business because there is no way that I will be able to retire just putting money in a retirement plan at this point.

Support Donald Trump - Hell YES!, second choice Ted Cruz.

[nopardons]

WOW !

Thanks for ALL of that in for and the links!

[AuntB]

It’s really ugly what they are doing to Trump,nopardons. The talking heads need to be covering this scam against Trump supporters.

More GOP fundraising on the Trump name! Now it’s the Senate!
http://towncriernews.blogspot.com/2015/09/more-gop-fundraising-on-trump-name-now.html

[dirtboy]

I do not expect my elected leaders to make it easier for me to compete with foreign labor. But I do expect them to not go out of their way to make it easier for foreign labor to compete with me.

[dragnet2]

While I suspect Trump is all hat and no cattle when it comes to truly understanding foreign policy

Yeah, lets stick with the disastrous foreign policies of the past 30+ years which have looted the American treasure and left middle America all but dead on the floor.

[TomGuy]

less-educated, working- and middle-class

The teleprompter reader that the more educated wrought on us in 2008 and 2012 had turned out to be no so great. It will take decades to repair and recover from the fundamental changes Obama has been making.

[nopardons]

My "salad days" are long behind me and I have been a new2s/political junkie since I was turning 9. I have NEVER seen ANYTHING at all like this, in my entire life.

I agree....this is all just VERY ugly!

We just got yet another letter, begging for money, from the RNC. They are NOT going to be happy with what I'm sending back to them. :-)

[nopardons]

You're bias is blinding you ! Trump is more knowledgeable than Cruz and extremely well educated people would MUCH rather have Trump, who is NOT "all talk" at all, be president, than Cruz, who has NEVER had any foreign dealings at all.

This is a TRUMP thread....don't invade it to troll for your candidate !