And the next President is...

American Thinker ^ | February 7, 2015 | Robert Potts

[2ndDivisionVet]

Based on historical patterns, the next president is likely to be a GenXer. This is not good news for the many baby boomers running, or thinking about running, in 2016.

When voters decide it is time to move the presidency on to the next generation, they keep electing presidents in that next generation, or they go on to the one that follows. They do not go back. Bill Clinton and George W. Bush were from the baby boomer generation. Barack Obama is from the Gen X generation (those born 1961 to 1981). If the pattern holds, the next president will also be a Gen Xer.

There are two exceptions in the history of our presidents. Zachary Taylor, president from 1849 to 1850, was a throwback; as was James Buchanan, president from 1857 to 1861. By the 2016 election, it will have been 160 years since voters elected a president from a generation that preceded the sitting president.

I first heard about this pattern at a lecture on the work of Neil Howe and William Strauss, the co-authors of several books on generational theory and generational change in America.

At first hearing, Ronald Reagan came to mind. How does he fit the pattern, assuming the presidency at age 69? The pattern is the change from members of one generation to the next, not the age of individual presidents. For example, Howe and Strauss identify those born 1901 to 1924 as members of the G.I. generation. That generation produced 7 presidents: Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, and George H.W. Bush.

In 1992, voters pushed on to the next generation, electing a baby boomer in Bill Clinton. In 2000 voters stayed with a baby boomer in George W. Bush and then in 2008 pushed on to the next generation with Barack Obama....

[2ndDivisionVet]

Actually, he's wrong. Barack Obama is a Baby Boomer, which encompasses people born from 1946 to 1964. Look it up if you don't believe me.

[grania]

Barack Obama is a baby boomer

Clinton and GWB were among the oldest of baby boomers. Obama is among the youngest. The two ends of that spectrum are very different. I could see that maybe what would appeal age-wise is someone approximately Obama's age but with a polarly different background and vision. Someone who is clear and inspirational.

Lately, Jindal's been doing real well. jmho

[2ndDivisionVet]

Gov. Jindal is one year younger than Sen. Cruz. They’re both squarely in Generation X.

[SunkenCiv]

There are two exceptions in the history of our presidents. Zachary Taylor, president from 1849 to 1850, was a throwback; as was James Buchanan, president from 1857 to 1861.

IOW, besides the other problems with this "theory", there really is nothing to it.

The 20th century was Demwit-heavy. Wilson served 8, FDR-Truman served 20, JFK-LBJ served 8, Jimmuh served 4, Slick 8, and Zero, well, we'll have to wait and see.

A curiousity -- George W. Bush was the first Republican president since Reagan who was elected POTUS to two terms and served both of them out. Before Reagan, Eisenhower. Before Eisenhower, Grant.

[Adder]

You are correct. The article breaks it off at 1961...I suppose to make its
thesis valid.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Who really knows when Barry Soetoro was born, though?

[DaveA37]

“Gov. Jindal is one year younger than Sen. Cruz. They’re both squarely in Generation X.”..

As is Gov. Walker of Wisconsin I believe.

[DaveA37]

“Gov. Jindal is one year younger than Sen. Cruz. They’re both squarely in Generation X.”..

As is Gov. Walker of Wisconsin I believe.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Ping!

[rbg81]

Technically, you’re right. But I was born in ‘59 and STILL don’t feel like a Baby Boomer.

[Sirius Lee]

Actually, he's wrong. Barack Obama is a Baby Boomer, which encompasses people born from 1946 to 1964. Look it up if you don't believe me.

I've seen both the '61 and '64 referenced. It hardly matters since Cruz (who is roughly the same age as I am) is firmly in the middle of the Gen X generation, while hitlery, fauxcahontas and jebba the bush are clearly not, regardless of the year used.

Cruz of Lose - 2016

[urbanpovertylawcenter]

I hope he is correct for I cringe at the thought of hearing Hillary Clinton screeching from the bully pulpit for my middle sixes and early 70’s.

[2ndDivisionVet]

As is Marco Rubio. But Sarah Palin, Mike Pence, Don Trump, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Lindsey Graham, Rob Portman and John Kasich are all Baby Boomers.

[2ndDivisionVet]

I was born a year later. We missed all the hippie stuff, at least as real participants. Because I was born 35 days into 1960, I had to register for Selective Service after I got out of the Army, whereas you didn't.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Every mainstream source that I can find, including the US Census, uses 1946 to 1964.

[beef]

I was born in 1956 and I never really felt part of the Baby Boom generation. The Boomers were defined by Vietnam. By the time I came up there was no draft and it was pretty much over.

[Sirius Lee]

You didn't look hard. The guy who actually coined the term "Gen X" said 1961. Regardless, jebbster doesn't qualify and Ted DOES! Sorry, no RINO or dem member of uniparty for 2016. Accept it.

Cruz or Lose 2016

[2ndDivisionVet]

I don’t want to fight with you, but 98% of demographers agree with me. Based on this guy’s premise, Ted Cruz is almost certainly the next president, unless someone not on the radar comes out of nowhere.

[grania]

I was born in 1945. Though technically a baby boomer, we really weren't. Us late baby boomers (and that includes GWB, and the Clintons born in 1946) had the opportunity to grow up with the advantages of those just older than us and get through high school in the good ol' days, get through college without debt, mostly got through our careers without suffering the effects of the decline of the US.

I would classify anyone who graduated from HS in 1964 or earlier as part of an older, more stable, generation.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Technically, you’re in the Silent Generation, not the Baby Boom.