Posted on 01/01/2011 5:11:20 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
A new set of poll numbers released on Tuesday reinforced the daunting challenge that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin would face in turning the tide in her favor among both Republican primary and general election voters if she were to decide to run for president in 2012.
Perhaps the most discouraging new number as it relates to Palin’s presidential ambitions was a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, which showed that 49 percent of Republicans said that they were now “very” or “somewhat likely” to support a Palin presidential bid.
At first glance, 49 percent may appear to be a promising slice of the GOP electorate, but it is down dramatically from the 67 percent of Republicans who said that they were likely to support a Palin run when they were asked in a previous CNN poll conducted in December of 2008.
Sixty-seven percent of Republicans in the new CNN poll said that they were somewhat or very likely to support former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2012, while 59 percent said the same of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
The CNN poll was conducted by telephone from December 17-19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus three percent.
And, looking at another survey, she does not do better.
Compounding those dour numbers for Palin was the release on Tuesday of a series of Democratically-affiliated Public Policy Polling (PPP) state surveys, which were conducted over the past couple of months. The PPP polls showed the former Alaska governor with low favorability ratings among voters in key battleground states.
In Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan, Palin’s overall favorability rating ranged from 34 percent to 37 percent. Meanwhile, her unfavorable rating in those seven bellwether states ranged from 52 percent to 60 percent.
But, the real question for Sarah Palin is whether she thinks a run against President Obama is winnable in nine or ten key battleground states.
◦Ohio – 20 (electoral votes): -2 after reapportionment
◦Virginia – 13
◦Colorado – 9
◦Florida -27: +2 after reapportionment
◦Nevada – 5: +1 after reapportionment
◦Wisconsin -10
◦New Hampshire – 4
◦Indiana – 11
◦North Carolina – 15
I think Palin could win a multi-way GOP primary election/caucus against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and/or Newt Gingrich. And, win easily and EARLY.
But, can she beat Obama in the states above?
Palin does not have to decide anytime soon (she will hold off a final decision until April 2011) and watch her political events in these states.
Sarah will be watching her polls and then it is time for deciding. If there is a chance of beating Obama, she runs.
“There is no such thing as bad publicity except your own obituary”
The logic would be giving Hillary an even more profound historic first, plus there are those that can’t stand women in power and women in a leadership role in military matters so it paves the road for a female president if she doesn’t run until 2016.
Unless she’s in it for the money at Defense. And then maybe Bill can step into her old position...lol
One knows Romney is worthless if CNN pimps him.
She'll be too old. 2012 is her only shot or not at all.
I’m not so sure that “old age”, in and of itself, is the issue. Whether or not Hillary Clinton is a viable candidate in 2016 truly depends on the number of mistakes she makes. If she remains intellectually sharp on the trail, then I doubt age will be an issue. If she starts fumbling, or acting confused (as McCain and Reagan arguably did at times), then I can see her suffering as a result. Say what you will of Hillary Clinton, it’s hard to argue that she does not come across as an intellectually astute candidate. My hunch is that she will keep her mental wits about her over the next several years.
Maybe she would be viewed as America’s Margaret Thatcher of the left in 2016 (wasn’t Thatcher fairly old during her tenure as British PM?), kind of like “America’s smart and steady grandmother?” All speculation, but I think it’s possible. :)
This is so true it bears repeating. Sarah Palin is a smart, wily, and pragmatic leader.
LOL Ask the folks who backed Bob Dole....
Blacks will never vote Hillary, Zero is the dems only chance, Palin will beat him!
Blacks make up only about 12% of the electorate and they voted 98% for him while still 2% voted somebody else. Even IF they all voted for him, it's still only 12%. It was the independent voter (white) that put him over the top. So far those folks have abandoned him, but if they hate Palin more...
The independents will not vote Zero, GOP WINS!
Unless the alternative scares them more (Palin). Remember, most independents lean liberal.
Not in the midterms, Independents voted Tea Party, the biggest voice out there, Palin
Didn’t the poll numbers show that Nancy would still be speaker this year?
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