Posted on 01/01/2011 5:11:20 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
A new set of poll numbers released on Tuesday reinforced the daunting challenge that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin would face in turning the tide in her favor among both Republican primary and general election voters if she were to decide to run for president in 2012.
Perhaps the most discouraging new number as it relates to Palins presidential ambitions was a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, which showed that 49 percent of Republicans said that they were now very or somewhat likely to support a Palin presidential bid.
At first glance, 49 percent may appear to be a promising slice of the GOP electorate, but it is down dramatically from the 67 percent of Republicans who said that they were likely to support a Palin run when they were asked in a previous CNN poll conducted in December of 2008.
Sixty-seven percent of Republicans in the new CNN poll said that they were somewhat or very likely to support former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2012, while 59 percent said the same of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
The CNN poll was conducted by telephone from December 17-19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus three percent.
And, looking at another survey, she does not do better.
Compounding those dour numbers for Palin was the release on Tuesday of a series of Democratically-affiliated Public Policy Polling (PPP) state surveys, which were conducted over the past couple of months. The PPP polls showed the former Alaska governor with low favorability ratings among voters in key battleground states.
In Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan, Palins overall favorability rating ranged from 34 percent to 37 percent. Meanwhile, her unfavorable rating in those seven bellwether states ranged from 52 percent to 60 percent.
But, the real question for Sarah Palin is whether she thinks a run against President Obama is winnable in nine or ten key battleground states.
◦Ohio 20 (electoral votes): -2 after reapportionment
◦Virginia 13
◦Colorado 9
◦Florida -27: +2 after reapportionment
◦Nevada 5: +1 after reapportionment
◦Wisconsin -10
◦New Hampshire 4
◦Indiana 11
◦North Carolina 15
I think Palin could win a multi-way GOP primary election/caucus against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and/or Newt Gingrich. And, win easily and EARLY.
But, can she beat Obama in the states above?
Palin does not have to decide anytime soon (she will hold off a final decision until April 2011) and watch her political events in these states.
Sarah will be watching her polls and then it is time for deciding. If there is a chance of beating Obama, she runs.
There is only one poll (well 50 or so) that counts.
This is a CNN poll. They know it’s worthless ~ as is any poll that gives Romney and his Mitbots 59%.
It’s still a free country! If she wants to run in the primary then she has every right to give it a go.
EGG-SACTLEY!
Its still a free country! If she wants to run in the primary then she has every right to give it a go.
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Precisely. And regardless of the outcome, she will put a big spotlight on every other candidate that will cause even the most mindless voters to consider what is at stake and the type of people they are considering to be their champion against Obama.
Here's the wild card: Hillary withdraws from the administration early this year and runs against OBOZO in the primary. What if she beats him? How many other Republican gals are there to insure another FIRST being pulled off to elect the first woman Prez? I like Sarah but there is also that gal out in the midwest Noemie something? Who else? This was s'posed to be the year of the Republican Woman. If Hillary is the candidate, I think Sarah HAS to run.
George HW Bush also faced very low poll numbers and he won..I don’t give any value to these ridiculous poll numbers because ANYONE can make up bogus results so that people will think its not worth voting for her. If the media was SO convinced that she could not win, they would be treating her the exact same way they treated McCain during the primaries..they would be kissing her behind left and right, but they are not, which tells me they KNOW she can beat him and these polls are utter BS..remember this important fact, the media tells us every single day who they know can beat Obama and its NOT Romney or Huckabee(Otherwise known as Joy Behar’s Favorite Republican”
I guess liberals are just not ready for a female President.
I don’t think that Sarah is the least bit intimidated by a couple of polls two full years out from election day, especially from liberal buttkissers like CNN and PPP.
That’s like being intimidated of the Yankees because Derek Jeter says the Red Sox will lose.
They know they’re in for the fight of their lives and they’re scared s***less of what we’re going to do to them.
And they should be.
As G.S. Patton famously said, we’re going to go through them like crap through a goose and we’re going to cut out their living guts and use them to grease the treads of our tanks!
Before Palin worries about general election math (which shows weakness this early in the campaign), shouldn’t she worry about the primaries?
Before Palin worries about general election math (which shows weakness this early in the campaign), shouldn’t she worry about the primaries?
CNN can’t count.
Sarah needs to head the RNC.
It could work in her favor, in that it lowers expectations, and if she exceeds those expectations during the primary season, it could help her.
I’m willing to wait and see how she does then, if she proves herself in the primaries, then I would have no qualms about supporting her.
Early Presidential Candidate Polls are historically meaningless on both sides of the political spectrum.......that’s why I don’t engage in FR threads on polling data about 2012, it’s pure fodder!
If it was worth something then Giuliani needs an apology since he was the man to beat going into 2008 according to polls....Paul Tsongas supposly was the man for 1992 for the Dems and Bill Clinton was running in the middle of the pack and many saw him more as a VP choice because he was from the south.
I guess too many FReepers are too young to remember that many polls in 1979 had some Republicans wanting Gerald Ford to face Jimmy Carter “again” for the 1980 elections, they bought the notion that Reagan was crazy, dumb and couldn’t win like the MSM and the Dems were saying back then....heck, some poll had Reagan even losing his own state California Primary!
BTW No independent voter on the average has made up their minds this early on Sarah or any other potential candidate, if the media says that, take it as a lie. Yes, right now some may not think much of Sarah but she nor any other candidate has made it official in running ( that matters alot) or especially for Sarah, she has never ran for President, no undecided voter has no clue what Palin campaign or message or plans to get us out of this mess IS! Two years from now they can be shaking their heads in agreement on what she says compared to Obama in the debates and some poll back in December of 2010 would be forgotten and utterly meaningless.....it happens all the time
They are all waiting to see what Sarah does.
What does that tell you?
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