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Sarah Palin Faces Gloomy New Poll Numbers – But Does It Matter?
FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog ^ | December 29, 2010

Posted on 01/01/2011 5:11:20 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

A new set of poll numbers released on Tuesday reinforced the daunting challenge that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin would face in turning the tide in her favor among both Republican primary and general election voters if she were to decide to run for president in 2012.

Perhaps the most discouraging new number as it relates to Palin’s presidential ambitions was a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, which showed that 49 percent of Republicans said that they were now “very” or “somewhat likely” to support a Palin presidential bid.

At first glance, 49 percent may appear to be a promising slice of the GOP electorate, but it is down dramatically from the 67 percent of Republicans who said that they were likely to support a Palin run when they were asked in a previous CNN poll conducted in December of 2008.

Sixty-seven percent of Republicans in the new CNN poll said that they were somewhat or very likely to support former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2012, while 59 percent said the same of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

The CNN poll was conducted by telephone from December 17-19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus three percent.

And, looking at another survey, she does not do better.

Compounding those dour numbers for Palin was the release on Tuesday of a series of Democratically-affiliated Public Policy Polling (PPP) state surveys, which were conducted over the past couple of months. The PPP polls showed the former Alaska governor with low favorability ratings among voters in key battleground states.

In Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan, Palin’s overall favorability rating ranged from 34 percent to 37 percent. Meanwhile, her unfavorable rating in those seven bellwether states ranged from 52 percent to 60 percent.

But, the real question for Sarah Palin is whether she thinks a run against President Obama is winnable in nine or ten key battleground states.

◦Ohio – 20 (electoral votes): -2 after reapportionment
◦Virginia – 13
◦Colorado – 9
◦Florida -27: +2 after reapportionment
◦Nevada – 5: +1 after reapportionment
◦Wisconsin -10
◦New Hampshire – 4
◦Indiana – 11
◦North Carolina – 15

I think Palin could win a multi-way GOP primary election/caucus against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and/or Newt Gingrich. And, win easily and EARLY.

But, can she beat Obama in the states above?

Palin does not have to decide anytime soon (she will hold off a final decision until April 2011) and watch her political events in these states.

Sarah will be watching her polls and then it is time for deciding. If there is a chance of beating Obama, she runs.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Parties; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2012; freepressforpalin; obama; palin; polls
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Then she might as well announce tomorrow. She'll beat Mr. Obama in most, if not all of those states. Just look up their unemployment numbers, if nothing else.
1 posted on 01/01/2011 5:11:27 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

There is only one poll (well 50 or so) that counts.


2 posted on 01/01/2011 5:13:30 PM PST by Paladin2
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This is a CNN poll. They know it’s worthless ~ as is any poll that gives Romney and his Mitbots 59%.


3 posted on 01/01/2011 5:13:46 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It’s still a free country! If she wants to run in the primary then she has every right to give it a go.


4 posted on 01/01/2011 5:16:17 PM PST by avacado
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To: muawiyah
This is a CNN poll. They know it’s worthless ~ as is any poll that gives Romney and his Mitbots 59%.

EGG-SACTLEY!

5 posted on 01/01/2011 5:16:32 PM PST by ExSoldier (Life without God is like an unsharpened pencil: It has no point.)
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To: avacado

It’s still a free country! If she wants to run in the primary then she has every right to give it a go.

::::::::::::::::

Precisely. And regardless of the outcome, she will put a big spotlight on every other candidate that will cause even the most mindless voters to consider what is at stake and the type of people they are considering to be their champion against Obama.


6 posted on 01/01/2011 5:20:48 PM PST by EagleUSA
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Sarah will be the libratards worst nightmare next year.
7 posted on 01/01/2011 5:21:26 PM PST by mountainlion (concerned conservative.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Sarah will be watching her polls and then it is time for deciding. If there is a chance of beating Obama, she runs.

Here's the wild card: Hillary withdraws from the administration early this year and runs against OBOZO in the primary. What if she beats him? How many other Republican gals are there to insure another FIRST being pulled off to elect the first woman Prez? I like Sarah but there is also that gal out in the midwest Noemie something? Who else? This was s'posed to be the year of the Republican Woman. If Hillary is the candidate, I think Sarah HAS to run.

8 posted on 01/01/2011 5:24:13 PM PST by ExSoldier (Life without God is like an unsharpened pencil: It has no point.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

George HW Bush also faced very low poll numbers and he won..I don’t give any value to these ridiculous poll numbers because ANYONE can make up bogus results so that people will think its not worth voting for her. If the media was SO convinced that she could not win, they would be treating her the exact same way they treated McCain during the primaries..they would be kissing her behind left and right, but they are not, which tells me they KNOW she can beat him and these polls are utter BS..remember this important fact, the media tells us every single day who they know can beat Obama and its NOT Romney or Huckabee(Otherwise known as Joy Behar’s Favorite Republican”


9 posted on 01/01/2011 5:25:00 PM PST by Sarah Barracuda
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I guess liberals are just not ready for a female President.


10 posted on 01/01/2011 5:26:07 PM PST by Huskrrrr
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
In the right kind of way she needs to be the underdog as Americans can't help but be for the underdog. She needs to run as the underdog but please, Sarah, don't act the victim.
11 posted on 01/01/2011 5:30:35 PM PST by Bellflower (All meaning is in The LORD.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t think that Sarah is the least bit intimidated by a couple of polls two full years out from election day, especially from liberal buttkissers like CNN and PPP.

That’s like being intimidated of the Yankees because Derek Jeter says the Red Sox will lose.

They know they’re in for the fight of their lives and they’re scared s***less of what we’re going to do to them.

And they should be.

As G.S. Patton famously said, we’re going to go through them like crap through a goose and we’re going to cut out their living guts and use them to grease the treads of our tanks!


12 posted on 01/01/2011 5:31:41 PM PST by turfmann
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Before Palin worries about general election math (which shows weakness this early in the campaign), shouldn’t she worry about the primaries?


13 posted on 01/01/2011 5:33:47 PM PST by TXConservative25
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Before Palin worries about general election math (which shows weakness this early in the campaign), shouldn’t she worry about the primaries?


14 posted on 01/01/2011 5:34:00 PM PST by TXConservative25
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To: muawiyah

CNN can’t count.


15 posted on 01/01/2011 5:41:45 PM PST by Big Horn (Rebuild the GOP to a conservative party)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Sarah needs to head the RNC.


16 posted on 01/01/2011 5:43:17 PM PST by devane617 (NEVER feed your cats canned Tuna fish. Mercury poisoning.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The Real Poll is the following demonstrating that
the FAKE POLL is just that,
manipulation for a deep pocket RINO loser.

Click here for HARRY info

17 posted on 01/01/2011 5:44:34 PM PST by Diogenesis (Si vis pacem, para bellum)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It could work in her favor, in that it lowers expectations, and if she exceeds those expectations during the primary season, it could help her.

I’m willing to wait and see how she does then, if she proves herself in the primaries, then I would have no qualms about supporting her.


18 posted on 01/01/2011 5:44:56 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Early Presidential Candidate Polls are historically meaningless on both sides of the political spectrum.......that’s why I don’t engage in FR threads on polling data about 2012, it’s pure fodder!

If it was worth something then Giuliani needs an apology since he was the man to beat going into 2008 according to polls....Paul Tsongas supposly was the man for 1992 for the Dems and Bill Clinton was running in the middle of the pack and many saw him more as a VP choice because he was from the south.

I guess too many FReepers are too young to remember that many polls in 1979 had some Republicans wanting Gerald Ford to face Jimmy Carter “again” for the 1980 elections, they bought the notion that Reagan was crazy, dumb and couldn’t win like the MSM and the Dems were saying back then....heck, some poll had Reagan even losing his own state California Primary!

BTW No independent voter on the average has made up their minds this early on Sarah or any other potential candidate, if the media says that, take it as a lie. Yes, right now some may not think much of Sarah but she nor any other candidate has made it official in running ( that matters alot) or especially for Sarah, she has never ran for President, no undecided voter has no clue what Palin campaign or message or plans to get us out of this mess IS! Two years from now they can be shaking their heads in agreement on what she says compared to Obama in the debates and some poll back in December of 2010 would be forgotten and utterly meaningless.....it happens all the time


19 posted on 01/01/2011 5:45:50 PM PST by Bigtigermike
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Not a single Republican has announced their Presidential campaign, while four years ago at this time there were dozens of hopefuls.

They are all waiting to see what Sarah does.

What does that tell you?

ineluctable

20 posted on 01/01/2011 5:53:22 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (DEFCON I ALERT: The federal cancer has metastasized. All personnel report to their battle stations.)
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