Posted on 02/01/2021 7:53:56 AM PST by Roman_War_Criminal
There has been a huge rise in nearly all grain prices over the past year. The price for Soybeans started 2020 at around $8.50 per bushel. It now trades around $14.00 per bushel. Corn prices started 2020 at around $3.80 per bushel. It now trades around $4.80 per bushel. With both of these grains in thousands of food products, there is going to be a huge rise in food inflation.
For many decades there has been a race between the birth rate and our ability to produce more food to feed a hungry global population. In the 1940s, a yield of 40 bushels per acre was the average for corn crops. In 2020 farmers managed to get to a record corn yield estimate of 181.8 bushels per acre.
In the past few years, corn crops have suffered an endless series of bad luck events that lowered yields. The past three years that we have completed growing records were all years of decline. The 2020 season is still being counted.
2017 -3.56 % 2018 -1.84 % 2019 -5.02 %
When the final numbers come in for 2020, they will not be good. Last year we had a drought in the western plain states and a massive windstorm over Eastern Iowa and central Illinois.
Grain production will be down in South Africa. This area of the world received lower yields because of too much rain that flooded fields.
In South America there was a lack of rainfall. Soybean production in top-producer Brazil was pegged at 133.00 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous outlook. Brazil’s corn harvest was seen at 109.00 million tonnes. In Argentina, where farmers have struggled with drought throughout the growing season, USDA predicted a soybean harvest of 48.00 million tonnes and a corn harvest of 47.50 million tonnes. The crop yield was so bad in Brazil and Argentina that the government lowered the ability of exporters to send grain outside the country.
Russia is raising a previously announced export tax on the grain from the currently planned 25 euros ($30) per tonne to 50 euros ($60) per ton. Russia, one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, is trying to stabilize domestic food prices with the wheat export levy as well as a grain export quota and a series of other measures after President Vladimir Putin criticized the impact of excessive inflation.
China has had a very bad year in the 2020 growing season. There were drought conditions in the north, heavy floods in the central area of the nation, and the south had grain-munching bugs in various regions of the country. Because China is so secretive about production numbers, it’s hard to get the true picture of Chinese food needs.
In 2019 China had entered into a food war with the U.S, so it reduced grain imports to punish Washington. In 2019 China only used 67% of its annual quota for corn and one-third of its quota for wheat.
Things must be at dire levels in China because that nation’s grain imports soared to record highs in 2020. China bought a record 11.3 million tonnes of imported corn last year, according to General Administration of Customs data, exceeding the annual quota – which was set at 7.2 million tonnes. China also imported a record 8.38 million tonnes of wheat.
The list below shows a year over year increase in China’s imports of several key commodities:
Corn 135.7% Wheat 140.2% Barley 36.3% orghum 478.6% Pork 108.3% Sugar 55.5%
Another sign that the food situation in China must be very bleak is China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs approved two genetically modified corn varieties from Bayer AG and Syngenta AG for import. The corn strains, MON87411 and MZIR098, are approved for imports for five years starting December 2020. China has also approved several locally produced genetically modified corn varieties.
Several nations have become net imports of large amounts of grain. India’s boom population is soon to become a massive drain on global grain reserves. Last year Colombia made a very odd purchase of 108,000 metric tons of corn. When you realize that France is the only nation in Europe that could feed its own people, you can see how quickly the world can get into trouble.
It is very unusual to have so many grain-growing regions all having a production problem at the same time. In 2021 there is going to be a massive effort to make up for the losses by vastly increasing acreage. If we have good weather, we will have a bumper crop, and grain prices will stabilize.
Last year Beijing sent out a small army of grain buyers to purchase huge amounts of grain to fulfill China’s massive grain needs. This may be the year that they are sent back home empty-handed. Since bad luck has become a permanent fixture in food production, I can only conclude that these events are the lead-up to the great famine that will play out during the tribulation.
REVELATION 6:6
“And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand. And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.
End Times Ping
Food inflation and shrinkage is real.
This will not go away, and will probably get horrifically worse this year.
PM me if you wish to be added to or removed from the End Times Ping List.
Our only Hope is Jesus Christ!
Maranatha!
I’m in the food distribution business. The reasons farmers and processors in different locations give for every commodity’s price increase is always different, but the result is all the same - higher prices.
I’ve said since the lockdowns eased late last spring that the shortages were over on store shelves but prices remained high - and they still are. Anything saved by working remotely in terms of gas and/or tolls is eaten up by higher food prices...
bkmk
Maybe if we stop burning corn as alcohol and plant something edible instead food prices might stop rising.
So bad. The cartels will start smuggling corn and soybeans in with the cocaine.
“... a massive windstorm over Eastern Iowa and central Illinois.”
Actually a 50 mile wide swath across most of central and Eastern Iowa and into Illinois. Crops were flattened in many places.
This storm, with winds up to Cat 3 hurricane forces (called a derecho) was one of the most under-reported stories of the year 2020. For instance - Most of Cedar Rapids Iowa was without electricity for two weeks.
That said, most to of the cost of food is NOT the grain. Only a tiny percentage of the cost is the grain. So increases should be minimal from perceived grain shortages.
Look for the increase in the minimum wage to $15.00/hour to be the driver in food price increases ahead.
I’m saving over $3000 a year in gas working remotely.
And I’m cooking my own meals which are cheaper than eating out.
I doubt food inflation has come close to touching that.
Could the plan be to issue food vouchers to every household in America on a monthly basis, depending on taxable income.
The weekly grocery store bill has definitely gone up!
The large bulk purchases made by the big restaurant chains perhaps help to subsidize lower food prices. More people eating at home so more demand for grocery store items, obviously.
Look at shrinkage too.
Your normal size packaging of cereal, soup, and just about everything else is smaller so that the price remains consistent.
It was said of Obama that he was a worse President than Jimmy Carter.
Well, I believe Biden has already jumped to an insurmountable lead as the worst President than Jimmy Carter.
For those of us who lived through the Jimmy Carter regime, inflation was rampant.
Lumber, grains, energy are but some of the commodities that will be increasing in price.
Look at shrinkage too. Like a frightened turtle.
I’m specifically referring to groceries (not ordering food), and I’m buying for several people (a family) as opposed to an individual. Also, my own commuting costs were negligible - this is just added cost.
Possibly, considering things like NYC school lunch programs are open to all (for “free”) and operate through the summer (when schools aren’t even in session)...
I’m saving over $3000 a year in gas working remotely.
And I’m cooking my own meals which are cheaper than eating out.
I doubt food inflation has come close to touching that.
_________________________________________________-
Yep....the money I’m saving by my wife working from home PLUS eating at home is exceeding the rise in food prices. The only reason we spend as much as we do is because my wife has a bad habit of overbuying (and some of it spoils). It’s habit she’s had all her life that she cant kick (no matter how much I get mad at her for it).
“I’m saving over $3000 a year in gas working remotely.
And I’m cooking my own meals which are cheaper than eating out.
I doubt food inflation has come close to touching that.”
Yup. My commuting cost is essentially zero at this point. That’s about two hundred a month. Also used to go out a few times a week but that’s no fun anymore as we enjoyed having diner/drinks and meeting new people. Now even when dining is allowed you can’t sit at a bar and the tables are six feet apart. We’re probably saving about $500 a month there.
We also used to do a driving vacation overseas every other year. Average cost between flights, car rental and hotels was about 8-12K. I would still like to do this but now that travel restrictions can be enacted at any minute it’s just not worth the risk.
Go right ahead.
Good luck making a living.
The reason corn is planted is because it is much easier than most other crops.
Because in part, an election was allowed to be stolen, we can expect these birth pangs to increase in duration and intensity.
Expect not only drasticincreases in food shortages, but also as stated inflationary costs. Couple that with high interest rates, high unemployment rates, poverty, disease, plagues and viruses to intensify.
Corruption among leaders will also wax worse in these latter days.
And soon, mortals shall put on immortality. Corruption shall be clothed in incorruption.
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