Posted on 09/26/2003 11:58:03 AM PDT by riri
Many Arizona voters are disgruntled with President Bush's handling of the economy and funding for the Iraq war and wouldn't re-elect him right now, according to a poll released Thursday by Arizona State University. Only 34 percent questioned during a weekend telephone survey would vote to give Bush a second term, according to the poll results. Forty-four percent said they would prefer someone else and 22 percent said they were undecided.
Bush's standing in Arizona has national implications |because |while |the president won the state in 2000, voters narrowly picked a Democratic governor last year.
"People have kind of looked at Arizona as a bellwether in a negative way," said Bruce Merrill, who conducted the ASU poll. "If Bush is in trouble in Arizona, he must be in trouble around the country."
Only 18 percent of Republicans said they would vote for someone else. But 72 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of independents said they didn't want Bush to have a second term.
Questions about specific issues revealed that 55 percent of those surveyed disapproved of Bush's handling of the economy and 52 percent didn't like the president's request to spend another $87 billion in Iraq and Afghanistan. But 64 percent approved of how Bush is addressing potential terrorist threats in the United States.
Republican Party officials said a decline in Bush's support was expected after reaching historic highs in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
"The president enjoys higher numbers than both (Ronald) Reagan and (Bill) Clinton at similar points in their presidencies," said Robert Fannin, chairman of the Arizona Republican Party. "It's not like the sky is falling. It's just a normal thing that happens and has happened in the last 25 years."
But Merrill said nearly one of every five Republicans looking for someone else is a bad sign for the president.
"It appears to me that the only thing that is propping him up at this point is the war on terrorism," Merrill said. "I think you will see him spin that with everything he does, trying to justify the war in Iraq and probably jobs and everything else, based on 9/11. It's in his political interest to do so."
Merrill and Democratic leaders said the situation is eerily similar to Bush's father in 1992, who lost his re-election bid after also waging a successful military campaign against Iraq's Saddam Hussein. Unlike the elder Bush, the president must deal with charges that he misled the world on the justification for war.
"The kind of problems that President Bush brought on himself aren't going to be solved overnight," said Jim Pederson, chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party.
Pederson spoke by phone Thursday from New York City, where he watched a debate between the 10 Democratic presidential candidates. Several polls this week show Bush's support dropping across the country, he said.
"It's just a reflection of the tremendous frustration that American people feel with this president," Pederson said. "The economy is in a wreck right now. Unemployment is going through the roof. The tax cut was ill-conceived."
Fannin pointed out the ASU poll didn't match Bush with any of the Democrat contenders, so those surveyed weren't asked to compare the president with a specific alternative.
Tom Liddy, chairman of the Maricopa County Republican Committee, said the only troubling question deals with the economy, which was a key reason for the 1992 defeat of Bush's father. There is evidence the economy is expanding again after more than two years of stagnation, he said.
"The president is going to have to rally the American people to agree with him on the economy," Liddy said. "If we get growth in the gross domestic product of 3.5 percent to 4 percent, that would turn around pretty quickly."
Liddy also said Arizona voters were more supportive in the survey of spending the $87 billion than voters nationwide as reflected in other polls.
The Arizona poll was sponsored by ASU's KAET-TV (Channel 8) and Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication. The survey included 390 registered voters with party identifications similar to statewide registration numbers. The margin of error was 5 percentage points.
Contact Le Templar by email, or phone (602) 542-5813
I think this story says quite a bit. 1. Arizona is still a pretty conservative state. Though, we get less so on a daily basis. And 2., I dont think we have been hit quite as hard as many states have, concerning the now supposeed ending recession and current job losses.
Not good news and probably not accurate, since anything with the name "Cronkite" attached to it has a leftist agenda.
The popular vote is going to shake out to be close, regardless. As '00 illustrated, it's the EC that counts.
All signs are pointing to '04 as being another 50/50 type election.
Okay. So according to this poll 82% of Pubbies, 51% of indies, and 28% of Dems can reasonably expect to vote for President Bush at this stage. The AZ SecState shows voter registration as of Jul 03 to be:
GOP - 916.2K
Dem - 782.4K
Lib - 14.9K
Oth - 499K
Based on these numbers, and assuming equal turnout among all groups, Bush could be expected to pull 82% of 916K (751K) plus 28% of 782K (219K) plus 51% of 514K (262K) for a total of 1,232K votes if all those polled actually voted.
Over 1.23 million presumed votes in a state with a total registration of 2.21 million votes. In 2000 Bush beat Gore and Nader's combined total by about 50K votes (781K to 730K). I don't really see where this poll shows trouble for President Bush.
Editorials passed off as news, in my book.
GOP - 942K
Dem - 831K
Lib - 12.6K
Oth - 387K
So the Libs and indies have increased slightly. The GOP has lost 26K registered voters, while the Dems have lost nearly 50K voters - declining at a 2:1 ratio.
Tell me again how this poll shows him in trouble? :-)
The only thing encouraging about this “poll” is that Forty-four percent said they would prefer someone else. That “someone else” hasn't entered the race as of yet. If things don't get better soon... she might.
She doesn't worry me in the red states.
Apparently many have forgotten that up until the mid-90s AZ was one of the most reliable states for the GOP across the board. Now, AZ has a democratic governor and Bush barely won the state in 2000.
Demographics is destiny and the trends driven by illegal immigration certainly do not bode well for the Republican Party--especially conservatism in AZ or in any other state that is experiencing a mass influx of Illegal Aliens.
When is the Stupid Party going to Wake Up?
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